A bit contrary if they still drive ICE cars ?
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OGOG maybe feeling unwanted in NZ.
I would not be surprised if they have plans to takeover NZO and head to AUS with all the assets they can get away with-will need 90% of all shares to do this .
For what its worth:
I attended a presentation that was hosted by the Wellington Branch of the NZSA where Andrew Jefferies CEO of NZO had an in depth hour and a half long presentation on the prospects of NZO. He talked a lot about Ironbark and was in my opinion very bullish on this. He was also in my opinion bullish on NZO. I purchased some NZO shares the next week in the low 50's because of this presentation. This was from memory in May 2019. In addition to being CEO, he is also a director of NZO.
Yes, we are all bullish on Ironbark.
The reality is, if the prospects of NZO were as doom and gloom as is now being highlighted, OGOG would not be rushing to buy the remaining 30%. Ofer Global has not grown into the colossal success that they have become by throwing more good money after bad.
They paid about $85M to get the first 70% of NZOG. Now they would like to pick up the rest for $30M.
That would make the total amount paid for all of NZOG $115M (69c/share) - less than the existing assets are worth. Not a bad deal if you can get it - especially when, as you say, everyone including BP, Beach, OGOG, Cue and the Directors of NZOG are very bullish on the enormous Ironbark prospect (touted at being 5 times as large as Maui!)
Another thing that I think the reps from NZOG seem to forget while they were trying to work out a way to value the assets and come up with a 'fair' offer price...
The minority holders have not asked for this. It's not like 2 or 3 large minority holders have approached OGOG to see if they would pretty please take our shares off our hands because they were feeling so gloomy about NZOG. If that was the case, the 62 cent offer would make some sense.
It is OGOG who is thrusting this process onto us. Possibly not realising that a significant portion of the minority base are long-term business owners, dead set on exploring Ironbark, OGOG probably genuinely thought that an offer price 25% above the recent share price would be seen as a big win. A great boon.
In reality, most of us really couldn't give a sh1t what the short-medium term share price is. ALL we care about is how the business performs over time, and what the likely future prospects are.
And, baby do we wanna drill!
absolutely
The thrill of the drill
Looks like this particular drill is estimated at costing a lot less than I originally thought too. Only about $30M likely for the exploration well (not $100M). Maybe allow up to $50M if costs blow out.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...973/284201.pdf
So NZOG would need to pay $4.5M. Hell, let's double that and round up to $10M to allow for cost blow outs and the amount we need to carry CUE for...
A very small investment required, for a potentially huge (and I mean HUGE) upside. If we were a gospel choir I'd be demanding an AMEN right about now. Possible even a HALLELUJAH!
You are all almost talking me into buying more...even at todays price !
I never was going to sell anyway. Won't until I am forced.
Cheers and thanks for all the considered opinions.
One thing that does niggle away at me....is it seems so clear cut that we should reject the offer.
Soooo...what are we possibly missing with our rose tinted glasses ? I have no idea.
Cheers
RTM
Sure. Downside is that Ironbark turns out to be a dry well and Barque + Toroa permits are abandoned due to lack of interest from potential farm-in partners caused by the Labour government offshore ban.
But even then, the existing production assets would still exist plus the majority of the cash in the bank (unless it has been deployed by then into other income-producing assets).
It wouldn’t be a great situation to be in, but life would go on and we wouldn’t lose everything.
Heads I win. Tails I don’t lose - much.
Surely with the price jump to 61 since the announcement (occasional trades at 62c), then anyone buying would have the expectation of a higher price - and strengthen the likelihood of not getting what they need to, to mop up the company. Not going to buy in to make 1 cent.
Although volumes traded haven't been great....
Anyone buying into any company would have the expectation of a higher price or good returns to make it worth taking the risk.
It seems to me that OGOG have realized(reinforced today by greenpeace actions) that the current climate in NZ is hostile.
They might want to get out of NZ and take the cash and Ironbark permit and majority holding in cue at the lowest possible cost.
Its unlikely they will get this at 62 cents a share and so may have to increase the offer price-this is one of the attractions of buying-not with the intention of making 1 cent.
Then you have to factor in the risk of the sp dropping
I tell you what I reckon might happen SSB, the appraisal will come out suggesting 62c is highway robbery, there won't be an increased offer from the Highway robbers and the sp will drift back towards where it was a month ago with all the long term holders hanging onto Ironbark hopes, most holders have probably been in NZO for so long their investment is written off in their minds and hanging on a bit longer won't really matter now anyway.
With that in mine mine are being slowly sold @ 62c.
Could be wrong of course !
Looking at the volume weighted average price this could be a very slow process.
I hope you are right.
I really dont want to be the victim of highway robbery.
Fortunately I am in a position where I dont want to sell at 62 cents and have a buy order in at 61 cents.
If the sp drops it will give me a cheaper buy in price
I am still working and will be able to buy a lot more-I did own a 7 figure number a long time ago and would like to get back to that position again.
Oil and gas company Beach Energy has agreed to sell a 37.5 percent share in the PEP 38264 license offshore New Zealand to a subsidiary of O.G. Energy.
To me it makes nonsense of the assertion that NZ is no longer attractive to explorers.It also makes nonsense of my previous guess that OGOG wanted to take NZO out of NZ-they are clearly here to drill.
They look as if they will be committed to drill by 2021 and so I guess a drilling rig will be in the canterbury basin and will be able to drill for NZO.
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