Here's a thought.
We were so busy being surprised that sales didn't seem to go up much over the US winter, that maybe we didn't notice the really big point: sales didn't seem to go up much over the US winter!
All our expectations for a big jump in sales over the US winter were built on the fact that that had happened in NZ. But wait. In NZ, it is more or less accepted that Blis helps prevent colds and coughs - as witnessed by how much stronger winter sales are than summer sales.
But in the US, aren't all the Blis products' sales messages instead aimed at the "fortifies the immune system" message? Rather like "with added Vitamin C"? So there is little seasonal message in that? The flip side has been that US sales have grown consistently, regardless of season.
Perhaps this difference is a choice based on the US law ("This statement has not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. This product is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure or prevent any disease."), or maybe it is a culture-appropriate thing.
Compare that to the CulturedCare message - in Canada, not the US. "Is BLIS K12 Probiotic Gum a natural remedy for cold and flu? ... The short answer is 'yes.'" http://culturedcare.com/2010/06/09/o...-cold-and-flu/
An interesting couple of exceptions to this in the US both relate to Bioguard. Although the Bioguard blurb on Costco still pushes the fortifying message ("natural defense against immune imbalance" http://www.costco.com/Browse/Product...rodid=11496779 ), yet the Bioguard TV ad pushes "defence" very clearly ("defend yourself this season".) And likewise, the latest CostcoConnection magazine discussed "allergy and cold defense" but did not mention probiotics in the article http://www.costcoconnection.com/connection/201006#pg84 Yet we are told that Costco or Imagenetix have put Bioguard into the flu category http://bioguardinfo.blogspot.com/201...ast-month.html
I sort of said this in my post on fractals, where I noted how differently the different markets were moving. Since when I've been wondering more specifically why. Is this a possible answer?
The company must obviously be aware of this choice between two target markets (plus the breath market of course). They must have considered (a) which one pays off in the short term (b) which one pays off in the long term (c) which one is easier/cheaper to run with (d) should there be different messages in different countries and product formats. In this group we are more inclined to see the anti-cold message as a plus. But a food additive would presumably have a better long term future as an all-year-round immune-boosting ingredient.
This is just a possible interpretation of things of course. If there is any truth to it, though, it changes how this thing might play out next. Plus it maintains the usual pleasurable aspect of Blis watching - like watching a very intelligent game of chess being played out.
Just another bash at a possible interpretation of publicly available facts. As always, I'm never advising anyone to buy, sell, or trade BLT shares, just discussing possible interpretations of facts. In any event, the focus for shareholders at this stage is definitely on how the product is being received in the market place, regardless of whether this particular possible interpretation is any sort of helpful view of the situation.