yes. Any thoughts on what a fair value might be for re-entry or expand-holdings contemplations ?
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It still has a massive market cap though A$95+ Bln,
They need to turn a reasonable profit to maintain that sort of valuation I would have thought.
At their peak I think they made USD15.4Bln profit.
Off current prices I think you can at least cut that in half & of course prices could still go lower.
The big question for me is if these sort of prices for iron ore & oil are maintained or possibly lower will their be asset write downs.
Daytr - you need to add in BHP Plc to get total market cap (I think)
BHP will be one helluva buy when it turns. No need to rush
Anyone have any ballpark thoughts on what BHPs likely profit figure would be with current commodity prices.
Nearest billion is probably near enough.
My estimate would be around USD6Bln of A$7Bln.
Not including any significant write-downs.
Which would give BHP a PE ration of circa 20 at the current market cap.
Very ballpark obviously.
Are we there yet? The stock is at it's lowest levels since March 2009. I have fond memories of March 2009. The DOW was at 6000 and I decided to start investing again after many years away from markets. It was the one and only time, with no exception that I can recall, where I've timed the market perfectly but it was a good one to get right.
My wallet started twitching recently, but hasn't unzipped itself yet.
I wonder how the BHP split plan for late next year(?) may affect valuations?
I haven't read up on it to be honest. I assume BHP will hold a certain amount i.e. shareholders of BHP wont be giving something away as I have seen done sometimes. I still think BHP can go lower, but that's probably because I am pessimistic on world growth for 2015.
I really think most people think the likes of iron ore & oil are going to rebound in 2015.
Obviously they could, but I think they could easily go lower yet.
What would you price BHP if the current commodity prices were the average for 2015 for instance?
I tried to buy $20,000 NZ of BHP a week or so ago at $27.70 AUS but, because I'm such a noob, i never realized that I had to first fill out a "chess" form first (or something) and lost my appetite - it was going to take a few days I understood. I see it has appreciated 5% since then. Could have just as easily gone the other way I suppose and still might. However, the fact that BHP had depreciated 20% over the last six months and our currency had appreciated 10% over about the same period made me want to buy. That was the extent of my financial analysis (all I'm capable of). I tend to hold shares for a long time so I'm hopeful that my rough and ready approach will work out ok in the end.
I bought 1200 ANZ instead for 32.50 NZ. I like the idea of owning a little bank like HNZ and a big bank like ANZ. It has a small amount of imputation credits, a DRP, and an ok but not great yield but the potential for bigger dividend payouts. A big thing for me was buying when our dollar touched 95 cents AUS.
I have no more money to invest now. I have now launched all my torpedoes and am prepared to wait a long time to see whether they hit my investing targets.
Merry Christmas all.
After writing a few days ago i did get a bit fidgety & had a wee nibble, throwing a loose div cheque in the pot for a few more bhp before i had some more sensible impulse.
As it turned out (so far) looks like i got lucky with timing. It was the exchange rate that prompted my sudden lurch, Bobdn, but like you i wouldn't be too surprised to see further declines in share price. Starting a little cash reserve now to get ready in case more rational analysis shows the declining guesswork comes to the fore again in the new year.
Either way, i'm happy to rest on historical gains & leave it to my successors to decide when to cash out.
Anyone back in BHP here?