Yep the biggest whale of all banksters. What are they buying up here now?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/personal-...f=art_readmore
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Yep the biggest whale of all banksters. What are they buying up here now?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/personal-...f=art_readmore
Interesting article JB. Thinking about it further I suppose Blackrock tries to keep its holdings in Contact Energy below 5% so it is not a substantial product holder and does not draw attention to itself. I wonder what their shareholding in the other power generators are, just out of interest.
Even some of the guys who understand and can benefit from the money printing are voicing concern.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/in...akeover-market
I was excited to see a couple of posts in the “are we bear yet” thread criticizing the status quo.
I was about to reply but decided to post on the thread I have hijacked so as to not jam up an interesting thread with my bull****.
People will start to learn to ignore my posts and save themselves some time if I am just repeating myself.
Just something I need to get off my chest.
Agreed GOAT we have rampant inflation and have had it for at least the last 20 years if the Reserve Bank of NZ is to be believed. No rampant inflation overall, but as Moka suggests in the article the world has had excess capacity and the rise or lack thereof of clothing and transport prices below suggest this. Money printing and lower interest rates have gone into asset prices.
Agreed something stinks with all the propping up of the financial and housing markets by govt (central banks) what or whose end does it serve? (possibly asset and home owning voters) There is no suggestion of reversing interest rate drops, instead we get talk of negative rates as the next "logical" step.
There is no suggestion of paying down debt or reversing the money printing. QE in the US gets bigger each crisis. The people in charge have no alternative ideas of what to do and a majority of voters do not want change so we will continue down this road.
Economists argue inflation is required so people will feel wealthy and keep spending (trickle down economics) and deflation will be a terrible catastrophe which will affect the poorest most as people stop spending and businesses fail and we spiral down. I would note that it is always the poorest who hurt more in nearly every situation. I don’t think creating a wealth divide is helping the poor currently.
Would lower or stable prices really be that bad? There is no crisis in clothing prices or transport costs. (I won’t stop spending if I need food, shelter or transport)
Our own reserve bank site shows over the last 20 years Q1 2000 to Q4 2019 in NZ the CPI had a compound average annual rate of 2.1%
The OCR over this period has dropped from 6% to .25% currently.
Housing had a compounding rate of 6.9%
Wages had a compounding rate of 3.1%
Food had a compounding rate of 2.2%
Clothing had a compounding rate of .1%
Transport had a compounding rate of 1.5%
Does that look like price stability to you?
Using the rule of 72 it takes 10.4 years for the price of housing costs to double(admittedly I don’t know what makes up this index, maybe rent, building materials, labour, actual house prices etc).
It takes 23 years for wages to double. Interest rates for term deposits are 2.5% mortgage rates are 2.99%, it is even getting tough to be a banker with spreads like that.
Something seems out of whack here for a young person wanting to buy a house and start a family. No one denies anymore that central bank policy is destroying the value of a dollar and savers, so what chance do young people have saving for a house unless Mum and Dad can help them onto the property ladder.
It has been 20-30 years of lower and lower interest rates and easy money (it started in 1987 with Alan “bubbles” Greenspan)( some would say it started in 1971 with the end of the gold standard and any sort of constraint on govt) and it will be more of the same in the next crisis as it seems to have helped us maintain the status quo through the latest crisis.
I would suggest inflation targeting needs to go as a start to reversing this trend. Inflation targeting is an idea from the 1980s started here in good old NZ. I don’t think it is working as it should anymore and needs to change.
If any politician talks about the housing crisis without mentioning the role central banks are playing in it, they are either wilfully ignorant or just stupid.
Change won’t come until people get angry and to be fair we have it pretty sweet in NZ although I believe we are heading in the wrong direction. People need to go hungry before they get mad and demand change.
I think if you want to talk about capitalism then the most important price, the cost of capital or interest rates should be set by the markets not a central planner.
I am not pro or anti govt, I believe there is a happy medium somewhere in the middle and this will change to the left or right depending on voters.
But currently the actions of central banks and economists as central planners there is a strong argument for the free market to prevail over the price of capital and maybe inflation/deflation should be set by supply and demand and not artificially managed.
Not helpful to my investing as it is all pointless bloviating that will change nothing.
The REAL inflation figures are wrong. They don't appropriately factor the cost of houses in NZ. Look at Auckland and consider what % of a person's income is gone into servicing their mortgage? CPI is just really a blunt tool to measure inflation.
The alarming situation now is not inflation. It's about JOBS. What better way to get people back to work than doing QE and printing $ ? What i'm saying is the crisis of the gov't doing nothing is FAR worse than every country in the world going on a printing spree. Again, it's not inflation ... yet. We need to start seeing house prices collapsing. If the Auckland market loses 20% in 1 year, then it would be fair to say inflation is not a concern but rather, deflation; and it's very likely we could see house prices coming down as the unemployment levels keep ramping up.
But what ever NZ does is irrelevant, all figure point to what happens in the US economy.
Again, question what point is having cash or investing in bonds that pay next to nothing in interest? This is why we're seeing the equity markets holding well as investors realise there is really nothing better else to do?
Gold up today but then again so is the stock market. Robert Kiyosaki said it a long time ago and more recently Ray Dalio "cash is trash" I have been saving to invest which is the wrong thing to do. I might need to invest in "anything" to get rid of cash and take on a bit of debt. I am still thinking/hoping we are in a dead cat bounce but when everything is going up it is hard to see a crash coming despite the bad economic news.
Indeed, Aaron. It's hard to see a dead cat bouncing this high and for so long! Perhaps we need a new term for this phenomenon!
;)
Well Aaron how has your Gold plays treated you ? If I was in your shoes I’d be spreading some funds across some better prospective micro caps gold plays like MEU - RXL- CWX etc or soon to be producers OBM , CNB as all this monetary madness is very bullish for the Gold price $2koz USD likely to be crossed before the years out.. I’m of course not only invested my own funds but the banks cheap 2.65% funds and doing the above ... last Qtr I was up $200k NZD ... should be many more positive Qtrs till we see saving in cash as a good idea again prob later this decade...
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They are doing OK but I haven't looked at the timeline for a while. I have them in the portfolio section in ASB Securities NCM is my biggest holding but only up 42% but that is because I bought more after a surge a couple of years ago and $30,000 more recently in an SPP. EVN 150% NST 239% and RMS 461% but these are meaningless unless I annualise this as RMS was in the bottom draw for a long time. I bought what turned out to be a tiny bit more NST in a capital raising. I am reluctant to invest more as a percentage of my modest investment funds as gold miners become too large a portion of my portfolio especially as it is very speculative for me as I don't do any research. No way would I borrow to invest in gold producers even more insane for me to invest in explorers but well done on the last quarter. I could have been significantly(for me) wealthier if I was less risk averse or had put in the effort to do some research to guide my investing but that has been true for my life to date. I guess the pain of losing capital overrides my joy when it is going up.
Yes harder I have worked(study/following the market) the luckier I get IMHO..
. everyone has there risk profiles personal I'm more than happy to have 250k on tick to the bank @ 2.65%pa and have most of those funds in spec Gold(with cu,Ni,REE interests) plays on the ASX Vs say having 1-2mill tied up in rental property at this time..
..which I could as the Bank hates me using there funds for the Sharemarket and commercial property so I could sellout and join in with 80%+ of kiwis that think Res Property/term deposits/bonds etc is going be a great going forward...Personally I think I'll be adding another mill to the asset base before the 20/21Fy is out ...
Those that think its hard to make a decent return at present ,,,, If you had purchased Silver ETPMAG.asx at its lows in March you will be up over 50% at present(plus 5%+ NZD/AUD gains) 120 odd days ago ... safer than any house SILVER bullion ETF ...no earthquake or fire or crazy tenant is going affect a metal ETF
Watching gold closing in on $1,900 so quickly I am sorely tempted to become a momentum investor but would need some sort of exit strategy. I would have thought the price of gold can change direction quite rapidly. I guess I would need to see more Monetary Madness as in my view the rally in gold will continue if central banks continue on their retarded ways.
Gold could take a breather for sure ..but the BULL trend is in place and has been that way IMHO since it broke the weekly Supertrend late 2018.. now Gold will need to crash below 1700 to see this trend broken so some room at present for a breather...
So Marco wise Gold and now SILVER(which recently smashed into a weekly bullish supertrend) are in place ....
Micro wise we kiwis are very lucky to have one of the best PM mining nations in the world next door ...Aus #1 biggest exporter of GOLD
So ASX brilliant ....then we must look over good prospects on the ASX ...for me its the best Mgm+F/A+T/A =
Like I was saying to friends and family back in march ....BUY OBM.asx ....why purely as it was a no brainer BUY ....80mill Mrktcap ....2Moz Gold resource ,1mtpa Gold
Plant, 270mill tax credits,20mill cash balance etc etc the SP went from sub 10c to 33c high which was passed yesterday but as pulled-back
Now OBM has just raised 55mill so they are fully funded to Gold Production 1Q21 ... I still think OBM 220mill cap are great buying at current levels....Silver ..I would look at MKR I purchased my first lot yesterday..Plant + producing Gold at present
Explorer wise for me pretty much same as developers/producers ....grade + widths are king ....CWX is one I hold that has been quiet and missed much of the hype we see with many others F/A sound with J/V with RIO,FMG,IGO majors .... but when you look at their HILL800 prospects with 92.7m @ 3.22g/t Au from 2.3m (H8DD006)
43m @ 4.24g/t Au, 0.3% Cu are massive large hits that if they were announced at present would see the SP double ...
I have a few others as I like to spread my risk / reward ...
the fear of buying to lose all your money only makes sense if you're a BUY and forget type investor..that doesn't do the hard work ...
IMHO you throw say 50k across the above 3x your have 100k before 2Q21
Cheers for that JB. You are forcing me to make an effort but I will most likely procrastinate.
Wonder if I am too late or if the party is just getting started. Gold 2% in a day and silver 7-8%.
Sometimes I should just follow my gut. although results do vary.
If it does keep going it is quite scary as on a large scale it could mean a loss of faith in currencies which was my concern as I was hoping for a downturn in the financial markets before a currency crisis. A loss of faith in currency also means inflation is on its way an inevitable result of money printing. Although that said it pisses me off every time I hear we don't have any inflation. House prices compounding at 6% a year is substantial inflation. Stop bulls**ting.