I'm not sure what this thread is doing in the ASX forum - but whatever, this article by John Mauldin is worth reading by those interested in the USA markets.
http://www.mauldineconomics.com/fron...things-bearish
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I'm not sure what this thread is doing in the ASX forum - but whatever, this article by John Mauldin is worth reading by those interested in the USA markets.
http://www.mauldineconomics.com/fron...things-bearish
Even the heading is wrong for the ASX thread. I post here because it has inflation and deflation in the title. I was expecting deflation but have got massive asset price inflation. Just speculating on where things might be headed.
Thanks for the link, interesting. John Mauldin is always pretty reasonable.
I have always wondered about the efficient market hypothesis. If everyone is investing in passive index funds or trading on technical analysis then I can't see how markets could be efficient. Everyone investing in ETF's will make the index they invest in go up resulting in good gains that attracts more money in a virtuous upward cycle. A bit like real estate back in 2007 and possibly in Auckland today.
I have no clue but am assuming this time is not different and that there will be an opportunity to invest at lower prices and better yields at some stage in the future. Hopefully we have a market crash before a currency crisis.
Also still waiting to hear from JBmurc where he finds a 10% net yield on a commercial property.
Yes ...found out today I was outbid(sounds like the buyer was happy with 9% net) ...was another property I had agreement from agent I would get at 10% net ....
.. then the funding I was confident through my broker last minute has changed and the bank now doesn't what to give me decent leading rates the bastards ....zero net debt position and good income and my bank aren't willing to lead at good rates for 10% net 10yr fixed term lease ....I just don't get it
Martin Hawes says inflation is alive but very sick for the foreseeable future. With interest rates not rising this might justify asset prices dammit.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opi...interest-rates
From what I gather Liam Dann thinks inflation in asset prices and getting rid of mortgages is good inflation but inflation in the cost of food and basic necessities is bad.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11937025
Wage inflation drives price inflation as businesses pass costs on.
to Quote "And because workers earning the least tend to spend a higher proportion of their wage on fixed costs like food they are disproportionately disadvantaged by inflation." So what I gather from reading Liam's articles over time is that inflation from low interest rates and easy money is good for the economy but inflation brought on by raising the minimum wage is bad. Shouldn't he be concerned that low interest rates and easy money are pushing house prices and rents up as landlords try to justify their purchase prices. This also disproportionately disadvantages low income workers but I guess it is an inflation that Liam can live with. I assume he owns at least one house. What a self-centred selfish t**d.
Federal Reserve keeping interest rates on hold will talking up the economy. Actions speak louder than words in this case(interest rates would be going up if the economy was doing well). In fact if this attached article is true it would appear the Federal Reserve is actually lying about reducing its balance sheet. Although I also read the US govt deficit has shot up recently so maybe this was the purchase of treasuries to cover it.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-1...-normalization
It is a bull**** bogus financial/monetary system.
I am looking at real estate and debt this weekend I need to get rid of my savings. I can't fight world central banks even if what they are doing seems wrong to me.
I appreciate my timing sucks and I guess it all turns after the last sucker capitulates but I am sick of waiting.
Too chicken to invest in water damaged apartments. The only thing that might provide any yield that I can see. I need to compare with Property company/trust yields on the NZX. They are pretty close I think. My price expectations would appear to be well below that of other investors as well.
Not as bad as Sweden though
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-1...-bubble-cracks
I like where they point out the current monetary policy started in 1995 aims for price stability next to the graph showing exactly the opposite. A few central bankers/economists should get strung up when everyone finally wakes up.
Like the women in the herald this morning pointing out that even on $800 odd a week after the $530 goes out in rent it isn't that easy.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11944373
This is what central bank price stability looks like in Auckland.
https://www.barfoot.co.nz/market-rep...rices-analysis
I wonder what weighting rent has in the CPI figures.
I wonder what weighting rent has in the CPI figures.... I'd say about the same as the weighting they give for bananas ...etc
Overall locally I see huge inflation in just last 1-12 months land values have increased 50%+ rent 20%+ fuel 10% food bill 10%+ complete con we have low inflation
You should be happy though. If you have debt up to the eyeballs then central bank policy is working a treat for you, as long as they keep supressing interest rates. Idiot savers like myself are getting hammered big time, losing purchasing power and missing the big gains in asset prices all while the mortgage gets easier and easier to pay off.