Dow certainly looking lofty - with little good news to support it. Perfect situation for a good drop, and a little punishment.
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Dow certainly looking lofty - with little good news to support it. Perfect situation for a good drop, and a little punishment.
Demand for oil drops off because the economy is faltering so the sharemarket rises... Am I missing something?
Only if your not cashed up.
US housing slump discussed on RNZ at 6.55pm, about half way through and greater loss in value now expected. Freddy or Fanny have posted losses 3 times greater than analysts expectations.
Good job I was short the dow then...
My opinion is that the recent bounce in the Dow is due to the short-term drop in energy prices.
I can actually see the Dow continue it's dead cat bounce in an inverse relationship with any further energy price drops.
But when energy price turn north again it's my opinion that the Dow will revert to a long, slow, and excrutiating downward spiral of stagnation.
With the exception of the very rare equity in the bunch(a la Microsoft which listed in 86 prior to the 87 hit), I wouldn't think about touching anything in the Dow or the index itself for years.
Commodities are the new equities and the new reserve currencies! :)
My thoughts exactly. Go short on the bounces...
http://www.lowrisk.com/image/dow87weekly.gif
This weekly chart gives a great overview. You can see that the crash took the market back down to levels last seen a year before, in October 1996. You can also see the start of the recovery, as the Dow started to move higher in a choppy style.
http://www.lowrisk.com/image/dow87daily.gif
This daily chart gives a great feel for how quickly the Crash came after the market top in late August, and just how precipitous the decline was. You can also see how the Dow retested the October lows in early December.
http://www.lowrisk.com/image/dow87hourly.gif
This hourly chart shows the market deteriorating right into October 19th, and how the selling intensified on the19th right into the close.
The 1987 sharemarket crash, and 1929 crashes are well worth studying...This time around the markets have had a soft landing through government intervention which diverted a big crash, but has put us in a steady downtrend... which is so much more important...
The single most important factor of these two crashes (and why this time is different is evident)....
If you look at the two charts you will notice that the Markets crash is at the peak, or very close to it...
We are lucky...at this stage (unless when have a big rally up to 13,000 on the DOW) id say there wont be a crash... just a bear market down trending to 10k on the DOW and perhaps below...
its good to see the markets down a hundie points...
:cool:
.^sc
Warning - word on the street here is that Lehman's will declare themselves bankrupt tonight. Bank of America looking to buy Merrill Lynch now.
Yep people are having kittens over on some USA boards, they are expecting a massive drop tomorrow on the dow. Im guessing that will effect the asx and the nzx also?
DOW 10K not far off now...........I wish I was wrong :(
I believe the Dow heading to 8k and then will turn. 8k is the support level on the long-term linear growth charts. Last 10 years of exponential growth are over. We will not pull out of recession until 2010 at the earliest.
Guys you wouldn't believe the level of personal debt Americans hold. It makes Kiwi's personal debt levels look like a drop in the ocean.
We know some people earning US$300k who are maxed out on all credit lines....it takes years of easy and low cost credit to get a culture in this position.
It's all coming home to roost now.
:)
Hi folks,
Posted 08072008:
http://forum.incrediblecharts.com/me...8/1634477.html
"2909-07102008 ... DOW likely to be strongly negative here"
... as per post above, DOW negativity takes its cue, right on time ..... :)
-----
... and to add a little more for the next couple of months:-
DOW ..... if you think it is bad now, just wait until Jupiter gets
in on the act, 17-27102008 !~! (New Moon 28102008)
And more negative time cycles, just in time for the US elections:
..... be watching for the Saturn/Uranus opposition,
as it becomes exact and is triggered yet again, by:
Venus 03112008
Sun 11112008 (Full moon 13112008)
Jupiter 03-19112008
have a great day
paul
:)
=====
A bounce in between would be nice, maybe today?
Euro markets out of the block and up 3%+. If the Mighty RBNZ also announces its .75-1.00% rate cut tomorrow, we may get a double whammy bounce and see the NZX finish the week rather nicely : )