Lol that one was just a bit of fun no serious mathematics involved but I'm sure Percy would argue with you on that one.
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At 40-60% the Couta theorum allows around +/-20% movement from the 50% mid-point.
To see how long a variant of the Couta theorum can hold you need to look no further than ANZ vs Westpac. Over the last 10 years Westpac has remained an average of about 6% above ANZ. A few times ANZ has managed to exceed Westpac but never by much or for long. Westpac has also rarely managed to get beyond 110% of ANZ's price. WBC did get above 110% during the GFC and late 2015/2016 but both times it was back under 110% within about a year. A revised version of the Couta theorum has held strong as ANZ has gone as low as NZ$15 and WBC has gone over NZ$40.
I thought I better check the data for myself. Unless I've screwed up, this Couta theorem does fluctuate within a fairly generous range, basically a 33% swing range, if you take SUM from listing it's 33% low (% of RYM SP) upto 66% high (weekly closing price - [Yahoo data which may be dubious]). These are adjusted SP, but basically same as measuring straight SP as all pay nice dividends.
That's a lot of wiggle room for SUM, 33% swing range. Interesting though, current trend for SUM is definitely down from the peak 66% to now (last week) 47% and looking bleak with RYM's SP divergence upwards presently. Look at MET, like a downhill ski slope with a death jump! and OCA fairly constant around 10% since listing. OCA looks like the sleeper as it's fluctuations are benign.
The other chart shows RYM vs SUM, vs MET, vs OCA closing weekly price. Clearly RYM is smashing the others lately, diverging upwards as the others' sails deflate, except maybe OCA flatlining.
So is the theorem worth it's cudos bestowed here? I dunno, just a curious exercise maybe. With so much wiggle room, and a solid sector where all companies are successful, SUM's SP seems unlikely to plunge below 33% of RYM or soar above 66% of RYM, so it seems the theorem may be a self fulfilling prophecy conjured by myth into some semblance of normality or reality by virtue of perpetual repetition, hence making it so.
The crux of my original theorum was that SUM is only basically worth half of the RYM share price and that it would seek to revert to around that value which removing the upper and lower limits that is indeed where it is and has been most of the time over the last few years. PS-The biggest myth of all is that SUM should/will equal the RYM share price.
I found some interesting information today. I was taking to a tradie that works a lot on rym developments. He was telling me how poorly they make the plumbing, so it's cheap and only designed to last a short while, by the time it fails it's the punters responsibility to fix.
Idk, i didn't ask for too many specifics. I don't know how much he knows about the pay structure and whos responsibility things are. Also, I don't know how bad the plumbing actually is; he may just be a perfectionist? It did sound dodgy plumbing though, even to this layman.
Interesting, attention to detail. If we plot SUM's average price since listing over all weekly closing price data points against RYM's SP at the weekly close, the spread is identical, at 33% (top 66%, bottom 33%) currently at 47% but the trendline is steadily increasing suggesting SUM's SP performance over time vs RYM has improved and the theorem should be updated to a reversion to about 56% of RYM?
Still, it's a lot of wiggle room at 33% swing range, one could almost bet the bank on SUM not exceeding or going lower that that price range. The recent % plunge of SUM vs RYM average is quite dramatic but still only 47% of RYM, maybe quality is shining through sentiment and we're seeing where the money currently prefers to place its bets (on RYM), even though SUM is below the Couts theorem and the revised theorem (postulated) at 56%?
Attachment 10563
SUM closed at 48.69% so pretty close to half value aye but your proposed revised 56% theorum will have Beagle barking with joy and on that note it's good night from me.
As Couta’s Chief Science Advisor time to clarify what the Couta Theorem is. Actually it has now evolved into a LAW — Couta’s Law of Relativity
Couta’s Law of Relativity states that the SUM share price will always revert to 50% of the RYM share price
The 50% being the long term average since the SUM IPO
Note it doesn’t say it will be 50% all the time but during the ups and downs of the market the forces of nature will ensure it always will revert to 50%
As it did when RYM was trading at what seemed ridiculous multiples in 2014 and 2017 - Nature said things have got out of kilter so the forces of Nature ensured the relativity reverted back to 50%
And then SUM was hyped and ramped up to that ridiculously $8 level - Nature said things have got out kilter so the forces of Nature ensured the relativity reverted back to 50%
It’s all about that time reversion to the mean
Ignore the forces of Nature at your peril
Updated chart ...on monthly closing prices