Released this morning, RYM has dropped down an index.
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From Business Desk this morning:
As foreshadowed for a couple of months, Ryman Healthcare shares will fall out of the MSCI Standard Index after May 31.
Forsyth Barr estimates that will mean about $232.3m worth of shares will be sold by index funds and other fund managers hugging the index
I was surprised to see it open higher than the Friday close, following on from the MSCI announcement. I'm sure some of the recent decline has been triggered by the speculation on RYM dropping out of the MSCI Index, however, I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit the 52-week low of $8.23 again - I still think it's a good long-term hold though.
There was an article on RYM in BusinessDesk today and a big photo of the CEO at the top of the page.
I’d forgotten that last September they appointed a grocer / retailer as CEO ….one Richard Umbers
Poster Rep had a few choice words about the appointment and Umbers’ appointment
Share price when Umbers started was about $15 …….now $8.66 …more than 40% down…..market cap down more than $3 billion …wow
Not all poor Umbers doing ….maybe it’s just Umbers is one of those unlucky leaders …..always dogged by ill fortune …like his past careers as Rep pointed out
Unlucky leaders not good …..their fortunes rarely change ….always dogged by bad luck.
Could call this a bit of fundamental analysis
might check in to analyst preso to see what he’s like
Excellent long play value here, whole sector actually. Just need some patience as value could be even better down the track, might miss a divi or two but it'll be worth it in the long run. Fancy going from nothing to buy a few months ago to buys everywhere, albeit a matter of timing.
Relative price performance charts are notorious for being manipulated by the start date, so let's stay in keeping with that and start at the Covid 2020 low when everything in this sector bottomed at literally the same time
Noting some were thrashed a lot harder than others during the Covid low, so performance since then will appear better the lower the base they came off, and how the SP actually performed since.
RYM (blue), worst performer by far, didn't get as badly hammered but the turnover is really hurting it
OCA (purple), surprising performance but off the worst base, though insightful performance amongst peers
SUM (green), wow what a star, hard to believe it's back well under my last regretful sell price
ARV (red), unexciting recovery slow to turn over, but now sucked into the sector downturn slog ahead
Best just to wait until these confirm a base/bottom and new uptrends then buy the sector, if you've got some dry powder handy.
5, 10, 20 years from now you'll look at the chart and there will this down thing in 2022 and marvel at your foresight snaffling up the blossoming sector during one of those rare recession opportunities. Set you up for your retirement income, if you will.
Vaygor it.
But if I recall correctly Vaygor reckoned it would be $30 by now and no matter whether you think its at a bottom or not RYM still trades at a huge premium to NTA. Nick Mar of Macquarie's loves them but I remain extremely cautious. The RYM magic was Simon Challis and the company has never been the same since he left. https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/articl...or+16+May+2022
Ryman results:
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/392385
not to bad a result either
Some high numbers on the buy side already
Excellent results. looks new CEO has done the job!
It's a good result, but I'm always weary of people ascribing results to management who have been in the job for 5 minutes.
He's been there 7 months.
This isn't the easiest business model / operating environment to get your head around.
He would have been cold for at least the first 3 months just trying to understand which way is up, especially given RYM's capital structure headaches.
All the variables (at least the ones within mgmt's control) feeding today's result and RYM's strategy have been locked in place for *years* (i.e. not least, developments completing and capex in the period).
Realistically he's probably only just starting to fire and contribute to the business' direction now.
Even then, a lot of what the business will deliver in the next 2-3 years is inherited (sites acquired, consented and commenced prior to him starting).
This goes for all the players in the sector. Some management teams are being unduly feted or punished currently.
That said, his performance on the call today was a big improvement. It was positive and confident, although it's clear (and understandable for now) that he still leans a lot on the CFO for any response requiring detail.
Big step up on their half year call which was a shambles.
Yeah, they're achieved with a team effort - but you can hardly say that "looks like the CEO has done the job" with regards to the FY22 result!
Absolutely the next 12 months will be more so, but again - a lot of what the business will deliver in FY23 is already baked. They can't change where their development sites are or what they're going to spend on them.
RV results are largely down to the following main variables of which he would have had, (being very generous here) little to (more likely) zero impact over:
- Resale gains (years of embedded value released from resales. Most FY22 resales would have occurred or at least had applications when he arrived in order to be booked in this financial year)
- DMF (accrued predominantly from residents already in-situ on his arrival)
- New sales development margin (a function of capex incurred on a project and the new sales price). He may have personally pushed prices higher, that's potentially the only thing. Again, unlikely there was any personal captain's call on that.
These businesses are like oil tankers, what is done today will not be seen for 4-5 years.
i agree with Jagger, frankly new ceo looked a bit clueless and only 7 months in I will cut him some slack. Rym is built like a freight train, large with momentum rolling down a hill.
must say aussie CEO really did impress, geez hes onto it, i’m picking him as the up and coming star of the show.
there will also be very easy 20mill underlying profit currently spent on covid control that’ll be an easy winback as covid settles