Well, the volume is not too shabby. One hour into trading and already more than 1% of all MET shares changed hands. Not sure, whether this is just mum and dad investors.
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While I 100% agree with all of these points, to add a few more to the mix:
1. the NZD has weakened since Covid-19 started to impact financial markets
2. NZ is currently getting a lot positive press for our handling of the crisis - it raises the possibility of NZ being seen as a relatively safe haven/early recovery candidate
3. central banks are flooding the world with liquidity and interest rates are expected (by me at least) likely to relay lower for longer - much longer making funding cheap and depressing required returns
4. reading through the latest round of confusing substantial shareholder notices I can't tell how many shares the big institutions who tried to arbitrage the offer still hold (they no longer have to report after they drop below the 5% level). If (and it's a big speculative if) they collectively still hold a reasonable percentage, I could imagine an investor getting commitments to accept a new offer from them which would provide a degree of confidence that such an offer would succeed
5. lastly, it's not clear whether the current offer is in fact dead. While the bidder would not have withdrawn unless they had at least a defensible legal position, the comments on this thread show that's it's not a certainty.
Of course, this is all very speculative and I would not be buying back in in the hope that either the current offer will go ahead or a new offer will emerge but with the shares trading at less than half the NTA reported with the last interim results* and relatively little interest bearing debt, value is starting to emerge.
Disclosure: former holder tempted to get back in.
* not sure how big a haircut the last NTA number should be given in the current environment?
Fear kick in again... remembered OCA... people sold at whatever price....the next day...it recovered
From 3 February 2020. Perhaps we should allow ourselves a small pat on the back selling at ~ $6.90 :)
I don't think you are far off the mark at $3.17 but note you bought only a small parcel. I am thinking of dipping a paw in the water too but there's probably a VERY substantial overhang from disenfranchised arbitrage players so (oh my goodness), who knows how low it could go ?
OCA did get down to 38 cents at one point, (just 37.52% of its last reported NTA) so using that as the sole beacon of light by which to navigate, we could see 0.3752 x $7.00 = $2.63 :eek2:
Keep in mind OCA was at 38 cents because global sentiment...it was 23 march...the world was in fear....NZ was preparing the lockdown.... newspapers were bombarding the market with negative news.....
Guru investor Butch did his sums and declared “MET IS A BEARY GOOD BUY AT TODAY’S PRICE”
PA I keep reminding Butch to give his desk a decent clean
I make it re 63 million shares from Mitsui, Jp Morgan, Morgan stanly, UBS. If they are all bailing aways to go.S/P could drop alot more.Sub 10,000,000 gone today last i looked.
Plus another at least 30 mill shares from Vanguard millennium and others.
Suspect the fundies who sold their shares at over $6.80 to the arbitrage players are stepping up and now and buying back at less than 50% or half price.
Ready for the next round!
Could be too. Awaiting the next SPH notices with interest.