See investing can be fun.:)Nice work.
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Thanks Hoop,
I enjoy reading your posts.
NZX chart is looking good.
Favourable market on the NZX just now IMHO.
Is there a similar thread for the ASX with Phaedrus chart approach.
On another NZX thread KFL.NZX is discussed as doing well and BRM.NZX as going sideways.
I suspect this follows the overall charts.
Thanks and regards
Am i the only one hoping for a decent correction?
Hope the NZX down by 20%!!!! Do you guys think Japan will have a financial crisis instead of a booming. Abe's master plan could lead a diaster.
The NZX50 has been breaking down since last Wednesday..it was Friday when it became noticeable and today it was expected and Mr Market did exactly as predicted ..closed at 4478 down 48 (-1.1%).
Since there has been only minor negative movements the target price for a bottoming is 4400 (70% chance) and would last a month or so, making this another very shallow correction....... However I sold down a major part of my portfolio at opening today as I think the previous rise was too steep....It is well above the primary trend and primary S&R line...25% above its primaries is too far up I think (in other words its risen too high too quickly).....Most of the time a 20% decline triggers a bear market which lasts about 18 months...In NZX50's scenario a 25% decline would still be just in Bull territory... it would be an very rare event if that happened.
The NZX50 bull is over 4 years old...I have seen bulls around 7 years old but on average the expected lifespan is just under 4 years old. This NZX50 bull has had a new lease of life and is extremely healthy atm... sudden cyclic deaths are rare and it would take a black swan event to cause it......normally deaths occur slowly and quietly over a period of months with most investors with positive outlooks oblivious to the cyclic reversal assuming it is another but more potent bull market correction and are buying in early to get these "cheap" shares ..this buying "cheap shares" behaviour causes a bearish double or triple top type patterns to form..........we have yet to see this pattern EDIT: The AORDS is showing one now
So what will happen?
We can't predict the future so we take one day at a time and one step at a time.......First step is watch the MA50 and the 4400 area and see where that leads us to...
EDIT:...It has been brought to my attention that The chart below has some missing data between Nov2012 to Mar2013 this has distorted the indicators ...e.g EMA50 is in fact at 4502 not at 4468.. MA50 has been broken today....EMA200 is 4160 not 4006..The drawn S&R lines at 4400 and 4350 are unaffected and are correct
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...5024052013.png
I think someone has already quoted the old adage "Sell in May and go away".
Well I haven't sold but I'm off to Canada until late June and I'm building up a nice bundle of cash .... so I hope to find the NZX50 collapsed in a heap when I get back :-)
Hoop, can I ask where I can get good NZ50 trend data from ?. I traditionally have been dependent on yahoo finance data, but with the yahoo NZ50 data being corrupted between Nov 12 and Mar 13 I find I get trend distortions, perhaps others find the same thing. Can you recommend an alternative data source ?
http://au.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?...rce=undefined;
Hi MAC..
The charts I post are from incredible charts they use the yahoo NZ data as a default...After reading your posts I noticed I have the same distortion...seems to be weekly instead of daily and then 3 day...typical Yahoo rubbish!!! I thought that was fixed up ...it seems its back again.......
I've checked with Stockcharts ( http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui ) the NZX50 chart with them seems to be intact... they use EOD data...yes there's a big difference they have MA50 at 4496 so today that was broken...on IC chart the MA50 is at 4468 (not broken)....bugger:mad ;: That Yahoo distortion is too big to be ignored
I think I have to ditch Colin Twigg's Incredible Charts they are too inaccurate for NZ stocks :(
try here MAC....and thanks for picking up on those errors.
http://www.findata.co.nz/login.aspx
http://www.eoddata.com/download.aspx?e=NZX
probably have to subscribe
many thanks hoop, appreciate your experience and advice.