They love these cheap stocks on NZX eh .... more Sky City the other day
Printable View
What does the TA gurus think of the chart? My knowledge is limited but from what I can see it’s trading in a range of sorts and all it needs is a positive announcement to break out? Or the reverse I guess
F23 going to be record breaking year ….that’s pretty good
Should give share price a much needed boost …even if only driven by relief things aren’t bad
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...604/398360.pdf
Markets are funny, aren't they? But yes, they probably noticed that while correct about the record, it still was some sort of downgrade of revenue (compared to the analyst expectations), and "underlying" EBITDA is a bit difficult to assess given that they don't tell us what's above the water :):
Still - they say margins are in line with last year, which means at least no deterioration on the earning side. Or does it? They said gross margins resilient, didn't they :confused:?
Retail.. all retail struggling
So KMD will do over a billion in sales and make maybe $39m. whats the point?
OK - admittedly the announcement is somewhat fuzzy, and yes, your numbers look right.
But first lets check with last years report to put it into perspective, shall we?
Last years Gross margin was 58.9%. This is not bad, and they say that the margin this year will be in line with that.
Their revenue last year was $980m, this year they predict $1100m. More than 10% growth, not too bad either.
Underlying EBITDA last year was $92m. This year they expect it in the vicinity of $105m ... $110m (i.e. growing inline or even a bit faster than revenue, which is good).
Last years EBITDA resulted in an underlying NPAT of $36.2m. Admittedly - we don't know about the extras, but for starters I would expect their NPAT this year slightly above $40m.
So yes, Net margins are thin ... but then, they are in retail - and at the end, what is the problem?
From an investors perspective - you can currently buy a 6 cent dividend (which they can afford to pay) for less than $1. Not too bad, isn't it? And at the end of the day, doesn't it make sense to buy retail shares while they are down (and still pay you a good dividend) instead of buying them when everybody is pushing them up?
You can see the damage to retail stocks a mile away.
Yes agree. Not too bad but i dont think KMD is cheap and i think it was priced to do a little better. I was expecting higher underlying ebitda.
So now looking at the chart it was looking okay for most of this year in what i can tell. Trading in a holding pattern waiting to see results. I am worried now its going to get into a downtrend with SP below 50 below 100 below 200.. and soon will be priced like the rest of the retailers i.e. p/e at or under 10 and double digit div yield.
I have sold this morning.
Fair enough. But just for the record ... average PE (10 years) is at 97 cents already at 7, and forward PE (whatever the estimates are worth) is 9.1 - i.e. we might be already there.
I put in an order this morning (but - admittedly - nobody so far took up my offer ;) ); Never mind, I can wait ...
KMD half year preso they showed Rolling 12 months sales $1,150m and ebitda $127m
So 2nd half Ebitda about $20m less than last year
Rough numbers for H223 -
Sales $552m ,,,DOWN $22m or 4% on pcp
Ebitda $60m ……DOWN $22m or 25% on pcp
Jeez ..if this trend carries through into F24 no wonder punters jumping ship and share price collapsing
KMD Q3 sales up 16% which was pretty good …and they were pretty excited about that
H2 sales flat at best
Must have been a torrid last quarter …….double digit decline
Jeez …nearly 4 million shares dumped at 92.5
Maybe NZ Super …..only bought heaps lately but