Arco,
I was born in Hamilton.Where are you domiciled?
Ps. I wouldn't like to guess where oil will go.Methinks down to about $US50 but anything could happen.
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Arco,
I was born in Hamilton.Where are you domiciled?
Ps. I wouldn't like to guess where oil will go.Methinks down to about $US50 but anything could happen.
Gregorious , Amadeus Energy is solely US production based. Approx 400k bbl of oil will be produced in its 05/06 year and 200k BOE worth of gas ( up 350% !!! from 04/05 ) They are totally unhedged and have some great onshore acreage in Texas and Louisiana. 155m shares on issue and will probably earn A$25m if oil averages $55 and gas $7.50 ... extremely conservative. Also own 31.73% of Australian Renewable Fuels which is worth approx 35c per AMU share. Current price is $1.10 so O&G assets valued at 75c/share so they are on a forcast P/E of about 4.5 ... great value. www.amadeusenergy.com
Disc: hold 81,250 AMU
Thanks...Youll!
Not selling the Neo's yet.....but some of the suggestions sound interesting..
G.
Updating the chart. We could see a move down to the uptrend line IMO.
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/101305_136.gif
arco
Nice bat.
Packers
Its actually a Gartley that could just turn into a beautiful Butterfly.
arco
A bullish gartley: sometime ago I downloaded and printed an excellent 134 page 'manual' on Fibs, chart swing points and gartleys. I've just had a google for it, but can't find it: it's a PDF I think. I do have the hardcopy sitting on my desk, but haven't gotten around to reading it as yet. Could have been written by Arco himself. :)
Reuters
Oil drops as crude piles up
Wednesday October 19, 11:21 am ET
By Peg Mackey and Barbara Lewis
LONDON (Reuters) - Oil dropped on Wednesday after U.S. data showed crude and gasoline piling up in storage tanks and consumers cutting down on fuel use.
Adding pressure to prices, Hurricane Wilma appeared to steer away from vulnerable rigs and refineries in the Gulf of Mexico.
U.S. crude (CLc1) was down $1.15 to $62.05 by 1515 GMT, after losses of $1.16 on Tuesday. London Brent crude (LCOc1) was off 79 cents at $58.49.
Prices reversed slim gains after weekly U.S. government data showed crude stocks rising by 5.6 million barrels, sharply up on a forecast build of two million barrels.
Gasoline rose by nearly three million barrels against expectations of a 1.2 million barrel draw, though distillates, which include heating oil, declined by 1.9 million barrels -- nearly matching expectations.
Adding to the bearish impact of the stocks data, the U.S. government's Energy Information Administration provided the latest evidence that high prices have eroded demand.
It said demand for oil product was down 3.2 percent from a year ago.
Analysts said Wednesday's data were very bearish. But they said the full impact on inventory levels from hurricanes Katrina and Rita that struck oil infrastructure in August and September had yet to be seen.
"We're still dealing with trying to guess what the hurricanes' impact was on oil facilities," said Bill O'Grady of A.G. Edwards in St. Louis.
"Normally we base our forecasts on seasonal patterns, now seasonal patterns are disrupted."
U.S. refineries are gradually resuming normal operations after the storms. Five plants were still shut along with two thirds of Gulf of Mexico oil output.
Adding to the build-up in crude stocks as refineries stay idled, OPEC has been pumping at near full tilt.
The cartel expects to boost its production capacity to 38 million bpd by 2010 from 32.5 million bpd this year, its acting Secretary General Adnan Shihab Eldin said.
Tensions with OPEC's second biggest producer Iran mounted. Diplomatic and industry sources said Iran was blocking British and South Korean goods in an apparent attempt to force the two to drop their opposition to Tehran's nuclear program.
Oil and gas exports have not been affected.
:)
Hi folks,
Some astroanalysis on oil and the DOW, at:
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/foru.../6/369432.html
... and some thoughts on sector rotation, as well.
have a great weekend
yogi
:)
Kuwait's biggest field starts to run out of oil
By Peter J. Cooper
KUWAIT: It was an incredible revelation last week that the second largest oil field in the world is exhausted and past its peak output. Yet that is what the Kuwait Oil Company revealed about its Burgan field. The peak output of the Burgan oil field will now be around 1.7 million barrels per day, and not the two million barrels per day forecast for the rest of the field's 30 to 40 years of life, Chairman Farouk Al-Zanki told Bloomberg. He said that engineers had tried to maintain 1.9 million barrels per day but that 1.7 million is the optimum rate. Kuwait will now spend some $3 million a year for the next year to boost output and exports from other fields.
However, it is surely a landmark moment when the world's second largest oil field begins to run dry. For Burgan has been pumping oil for almost 60 years and accounts for more than half of Kuwait's proven oil reserves. This is also not what forecasters are currently assuming.
Last week the International Energy Agency's report said output from the Greater Burgan area will be 1.64 million barrels a day in 2020 and 1.53 million barrels per day in 2030. Is this now a realistic scenario?
The news about the Burgan oil field also lends credence to the controversial opinions of investment banker and geologist Matthew Simmons. His book 'Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy' claims that ageing Saudi oil fields also face serious production falls.
The implications for the global economy are indeed serious. If the world oil supply begins to run dry then the upward pressure on oil prices will be inexorable. For the oil producers this will come as a compensation for declining output, and cushion them against an economic collapse.
However, the oil consumers then face a major energy crisis. Industrialized economies are still far too dependent on oil. And the pricing mechanism of declining oil reserves will press them into further diversification of energy supplies, particularly nuclear, wind and solar power.
All this was foreshadowed in the energy crisis of the late 1970s when a serious inflection in oil supply by the year 2000 was clearly forecast. How ironic that those earlier forecasts now look correct, while more modern and recent forecasts begin to look over optimistic and out-of-date with geological reality.
Nobody can change the geology, and forces of nature that laid down reserves of oil and gas over millions and millions of years. Could it be that we have been blinded by technological advances into thinking that there is some way to beat nature?
The natural world has an uncanny ability to hit back at the arrogance of man, and perhaps a reassessment of reality at this point is called for, rather than a reliance on oil statistics that may owe more to political manoeuvring than geological facts. - AME Info FZ LLC.
Let us be happy that NZO/PPP and other Aussie-NZ oilers will be in full scale production for the years ahead when this oil crunch bites.
Shareholders in the likes of those will be rewarded and still able to fill their tanks!
Natural Gas in the USA is also the place to be .....cheap gas there is now a memory IMHO.
Thanks MICK for these links!
Neo are in for a good Dec' testing round I forsee.....
G.
South Asia
Dec 1, 2005
The foundations for an Asian oil and gas grid
By Siddharth Srivastava
NEW DELHI - Stung by the rising international price of oil and domestic shortages coupled with high requirements of a growing economy, India has revived a plan for an oil and gas grid for the Asian continent.
The grid is part of a two-fold strategy by the two top Asian oil guzzlers, China and India, to ensure reliable delivery networks and energy security. The other element involves acquiring stakes in production and exploration projects for which New Delhi and Beijing continue to cooperate as well as compete.
The emphasis on the grid comes in wake of reports that India and China, the most aggressive shoppers for oil and gas assets in the world, are coming together to put in a joint bid. The China National
Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and the Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), two of the most high-profile emerging global oil companies in the past year, could jointly bid for Petro-Canada's $1-billion oil and gas fields in Syria. Both India and China feel the strategic need to diversify their energy sources from the current dependence on West Asia.
Asia is no longer marginal to the global oil and gas economy, said India's Petroleum Minister Mani Shankar Aiyar in his inaugural address at the ministerial round table on cooperation between North and Central Asian producers in New Delhi last week.
"The era when our production was controlled by others is now behind us, the era when the bulk of consumers lived in other continents is also over," he said. "Already, two-thirds of the oil extracted from the bowels of West Asia and Southeast Asia finds its way to the markets of Turkey, India, China, Korea, Japan and other consumption centers in Asia."
The round table, the second being hosted by India, has brought together oil-producing countries including Russia, Turkey, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan in dialogue with the principal Asian consumer nations - China, Japan, Korea and India.
This is not the first time India has raised such a proposal. At an Asian gas-buyers meeting in New Delhi in February, Aiyar exhorted assembled nations, including China and Saudi Arabia, to build a pan-Asian gas grid and end "the wretched Western dominance".
Reiterating India's resolve, he said producers and consumers could jointly invest in infrastructure to gain energy security for the region. "We can together invest in exploration, production, transportation, shipbuilding and shipping, in ports and terminals. We can together build refineries and gas-processing plants and power-generation stations and petrochemical units; in short, we can together take on the world. That would be true energy security."
South Korea, Asia's fourth-largest oil consumer, has backed India's efforts to create an Asian oil and gas order by setting up an inter-state oil and gas-transportation system.
"Trade in oil within Asia remains marginal," Korean Minister of Commerce, Industry and Energy Hee Beem Lee said. "The work that is urgently needed is a master plan that links all the points in Asia through what can be called, the Inter-Asia Oil and Gas Transportation System.
"To solidify this effort, I propose that a working group be established with all the countries in Asia represented, and its first meeting be held in the first half of next year in Korea. North and Central Asia, which includes Russia and the Caspian Sea region, were increasingly important to global oil supply. Large oil fields with pipelines are being developed, and with it Central Asia is emerging as a major oil resource region. But the unresolved problem of transporting the oil is holding back the full potential of oil trade within Asia."
Meanwhile, Aiyar said a Japanese proposal to study the possibility of networking the countries of Central, South and East Asia and elsewhere as well as an initiative to promote a sustainable and flexible energy system (SAFE) were endorsed. It was agreed that practical steps be taken bilaterally and
I found this post on another forum, and thought it would be pertinent to here:
http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/current-events.html
Long. While some people might call into question the assertion that oil is a non-renewable resource, I have yet to hear from anybody that oil is NOT scarce and EXPENSIVE to produce.
a) So, the age old question: How long 'till we run out of the goey stuff? This might be as good an estimate as any:
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=15186
Let's say that they're dead wrong, and underestimated field capacity and the improvement of extraction technology in the next 10-20 years and so we can double the amount of oil reserves we can get our hands on from 1.3 trillion to 2.6 trillion barrels. Let's also assume that oil demand does not remain constant but, in fact, drops about 20% from current levels (unlikely but possible), so from 76 billion barrels a year down to 60 billion barrels a year, call it what you may, conservation, limits in price elasticity, recession, taxes, alternative energy technologies.
http://www.scaruffi.com/politics/oil.html
That's about 40 years worth of oil and yet, this is a very rosy scenario.
b) Canada. Probably on one of the few upsides in oil production this 2006, i believe the closest new production facilities are 12-18 months away. I don't think deriving oil from kerogen will cost $3.50 or even $7.00 USD per barrel, do you? 4 million additional barrels of oil every day, makes 1.44 billion barrels a year. Up from 60 billion a year does not make for even a 2.5% increase in production, estimating it at a 30% recovery rate. Maybe it will buy us 2 years in the long run.
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=29285
http://www.thebulletin.org/article.p...fn=mj05cavallo
c) Latin America. The largely ignored component of Bush's foreign policy, the region has -and will continue- to fall victim to caudillo politics.
Think Chavez is a pain in the ass? Wait until Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's -AMLO for short- is elected to the Mexico presidency. Too close to Castro and Chavez for comfort, they're likely to become the 'terrible trio' of the region and a major sore for US foreign policy. It does not help that the US embassador to Mexico is often caught saying unpopular things in Mexico in an election year. A savvy politician, AMLO is the lead candidate telling the US to but out of Mexican internal affairs, appealing to a nationalistic resurgence similar to that of Venezuela.
Also deeply worrying is that Cantarell, Mexico's biggest and the world's second largest oil field declined 6% production in 2005 and probably will drop another 5-6% this year also. PEMEX, Mexico's state-owned oil enterprise, has 130k employees and a burdensome pension plan for retirees. The union weights in heavily and is politically connected so for any reform, is DOA. It also levies an astounding tax rate of and is the primary source of revenue for the country at an estimated $25 billion USD, larger than remittances from Mexicans abroad, foreign direct investment and tax revenues -in that order-. This adds to decades of nearly zero investment in oil infrastructure and general neglect and corruption in PEMEX.
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=29314
Hugo Chavez has little incentive to scale back oil production from Venezuela's state-owned oil giant PDVSA , but if you remember correctly, 2 years ago he was almost thrown out of power when he fired the company's senior management for not 'towing the line'. Think that expertise can be replaced overnight? Think that it does not impact oil production? Think again.
http://www.stratfor.com/products/pre....php?id=248553
Overexplotation, lack of renewed investment and maintenance,
corruption, and use of the oil monopoly as the union and politicos piggy bank are all too common in both Venezuela and Mexico.
d) Africa. Unrest in Nigeria, D.R. of Congo and Ecuatorial Guinea will exacerbate as more US and European oil companies begin drilling for new oil reserves. Widespread government corru
"Saudi Arabia's oil minister confirmed that his country's massive crude-oil output has declined in recent months, but he attributed the trend to a drop in demand…. In an interview… Ali Naimi said other [OPEC] cartel members are having trouble finding buyers for all the crude they are producing, at a time when global stores are near full… 'It's not just heavy oil. Even light oil is having problems finding buyers,' Mr. Naimi said, referring to premium grades of crude known as light crude that are highly prized by refiners because they have high gasoline yields. Asked if the kingdom was easing up on supply because of concern about the buildup of inventories in the U.S. and other importing countries, Mr. Naimi rejected such a motive, replying: 'At $70 a barrel?'"
Apparently oil stocks are at 10 year highs in many places, including the United States. The question is, why is oil still at $70 a barrel?
By the way, when I wrote "oil stocks" I did not mean companies that are oil focused, I meant inventories of oil. The storage of oil is at decade-long highs, that is what I meant.
I wonder what an economist like Skinny would make of this? Pity he doesn't post so much anymore.