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Thanks for the analysis, Phaedrus and Trackers. I guess you're both wondering when to buy in? :)
I read up a bit on A/D charts, can see that you need 3-4 weeks and a reasonable slope to confirm a cashflow movement.
The technique looks useful, but can I add an FA approach to the Bearish Divergence conclusion?
Near the 27th May the PoG was ramping up, and money flowed into OGC, without a press release being involved. Near 21 June it was announced that OGC was now listed on some Canadian indexes. The most recent press release went down like a damp squib, as it didn't involve cashflow into the company, just more costs for exploration.
A report on Round Hill is due, and that is more immediate for cashflow. If enough Aussies catch on, it might produce a tall blip on the A/D graph, and that would restore a positive slope for the duration. But I don't find the very slightly negative slope on A/D too worrying.
It is likely we'll see a solid bounceback at some stage soon, IMHO.
Cheers for the clarification there Phaedrus, makes sense - And yeah everything looks hot to trot FA wise elZorro its certainly was a great performer throughout 2009
As we all know goldbugs don't take kindly to criticism.
Last week Mary Holm in her Herald column made some disparaging remarks about gold, so this week there are letters from goldbugs pushing the usual, 'store of value', Zimbabwe', 'fiat money', Peter Schiff, Marc Faber, Jim Rogers and last but certainly not least a goldbug gem, "I'm sending you a link that explains why gold is rising and likely to continue to rise for some time".
Holm counters brilliantly and ends one of her replies with a statement from Warren Buffet who some goldbugs wrongly believe is buying gold.
Buffett says "gold gets dug out of the ground in Africa or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head."
Fiat money is reality. I couldn't imagine a world without it.
If we didn't have fiat money, then we may as well not keep promises (fractional reserve system is based on the future expectation to pay that money back ie a promise).
Gold is like anything, there is a time to buy, a time to sell. I agree with Skol, there is limited scope left...its much to risky for a potential 50% gain which is what JB and co all seem to be hanging out for.
Well personal I don't think Gold has peaked just yet but one day it will- an like Oil it will find a new higher level of trade (70-80) I think it really depends on how much more debt will be created from thin air with interest for the public to pay
has gold peaked yet?
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Ruff/ruff_jun252010.html
Fiat money is reality. I couldn't imagine a world without it.
Before 1971 I'm sure many couldn't believe a world with a currency with no assets behind it- 100% Fiat = 100% Debt-look up what -tender- means - for the wealth of individuals that have control to create the free fiat the FED etc --An the banks that are allowed to loan 9 times the funds they have in savings at interest to you( pretty sure Here are banks must loan the funds from thses overseas banks if they don't have enough savings ,bonds etc to cover the loans like most of the world except the likes of the US 9:1)
-Fiat money setup to fail-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5yD53...eature=related
Your youtube video which I watched is produced by a Michael Maloney and on his website you can buy and sell gold.
Fancy that JB, another dude running a business and pushing the 'fiat currencies are worthless' myth.
I wonder how you pay for his gold if you buy it? With gold or the 'worthless' USD.
In today's paper residential property will decrease in value for another 2 years apparently so whoever wrote that isn't expecting inflation.
Fair enough skol so you believe that evil Mike is selling people precious metals taking there Fiat money is ripping investors off? will these investors turn round one day in the future "dam this piece of rare metal has gone up in valve"like it has for thousands of yrs..I should have brought some Enron stock or brought some Bluechip bonds etc
Fair enough Skol, it wasn't the most convincing of videos, he looked a bit uncomfortable. All he did do was remind people that currencies are faith based. It's like the economy, has anyone ever seen it? (doesn't make it less real, unless you're a philosopher).
We've got used to gold being at about 1240, but a small drop to 1200 soon drifted back up. I would expect another flight to gold to happen next week if equities keep dropping. Will there be any serious traders still to sell and sit on the sidelines? If not, who is left selling their positions? The big funds? This is an area I know very little about, you guys might know.
The reason, on one website I visited in the last few hours, that gold is down is that some big funds are selling gold and buying 'fiat' euros.
Euro is up a lot in the last couple of days.
This from TELEGRAPH.co.uk
full article here http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...l-Reserve.html
RBS tells clients to prepare for 'monster' money-printing by the Federal Reserve.
Entitled "Deflation: Making Sure It Doesn’t Happen Here", it is a warfare manual for defeating economic slumps by use of extreme monetary stimulus once interest rates have dropped to zero, and implicitly once governments have spent themselves to near bankruptcy.
The speech is best known for its irreverent one-liner: "The US government has a technology, called a printing press, that allows it to produce as many US dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost."
Bernanke began putting the script into action after the credit system seized up in 2008, purchasing $1.75 trillion of Treasuries, mortgage securities, and agency bonds to shore up the US credit system. He stopped far short of the $5 trillion balance sheet quietly pencilled in by the Fed Board as the upper limit for quantitative easing (QE).
Investors basking in Wall Street's V-shaped rally had assumed that this bizarre episode was over. So did the Fed, which has been shutting liquidity spigots one by one. But the latest batch of data is disturbing.
The ECRI leading indicator produced by the Economic Cycle Research Institute plummeted yet again last week to -6.9, pointing to contraction in the US by the end of the year. It is dropping faster that at any time in the post-War era.
Andrew Roberts, credit chief at RBS, is advising clients to read the Bernanke text very closely because the Fed is soon going to have to the pull the lever on "monster" quantitative easing (QE)".
"We cannot stress enough how strongly we believe that a cliff-edge may be around the corner, for the global banking system (particularly in Europe) and for the global economy. Think the unthinkable," he said in a note to investors.
Roberts said the Fed will shift tack, resorting to the 1940s strategy of capping bond yields around 2pc by force majeure said this is the option "which I personally prefer".
Well this is the thing the US government are NOT going to allow their economy to fall into deflation they have far to much debt an people with guns that will riot if the USA goes 1930's style
THEY NEED INFLATION THEY WILL CREATE INFLATION full steam ahead....
Well I disagree with that unsurprisingly JB. Lots more people had guns in the 1930's and there was a lot of serious violence, however in those days in the USA you could go and buy a Thompson sub-machinegun from your local dealer. Lots of people have guns here to, machineguns and pistols, homemade and otherwise, so your argument is invalid.
There's always going to be the Enrons so that's not a valid argument either, whenever there's a boom there's going to be scams and when the POG takes a REAL hit you watch the suckers lose their cash.
When I refer to 'suckers', I'm talking about the mums and dads, the ignorant who venture into precious metals not knowing what they're doing and the risk they're taking.
One guy last week on Holms' column wanted to sell a house he owned and put the proceeds into gold.
There's endless Youtube videos on what a terrific 'investment' gold is produced by the 'gurus'
Here's one with an opposing point of view, probably by someone with no vested interest.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxmcrQ9slhw
Skol, in this presentation gold was compared to equities for a 14 year period (carefully chosen) that showed gold underperformed equities. He then pointed to the dip in the gold price, just a year or three later, that trended sharply upwards afterwards, which if used as a startpoint, would have given a very different picture. But he countered this with "we all know you can't time the market".
I hope this is recommended viewing for all TA (and probably FA) investors. We don't stand a chance...
Also missing from the presentation, was a graph showing the value of the USD against a basket of other currencies, and against real goods. Surely investors are also interested in that side of the story.