Will be interesting to observe the effect of the passive funds, as MFT is a relatively thinly traded stock for one about to join the NZX50. *fingers crossed*
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Will be interesting to observe the effect of the passive funds, as MFT is a relatively thinly traded stock for one about to join the NZX50. *fingers crossed*
Ends the day at 210 with an off market trade at 209.
Nice :D
18/11/2004
1:46 pm
HALFYR: MFT: Mainfreight Half Year Announcement
MAINFREIGHT LIMITED GROUP
FINANCIAL RESULT FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED SEPTEMBER 2004
(UNAUDITED)
Net profit within the Mainfreight Group of companies for the first six months
of the 2005 financial year, excluding the Owens acquisition, has improved to
$6.559 million, an increase of 78.6%.
When consolidating the Owens result, net profit declined to $1.145 million.
This decline saw acquisition costs of $2.035 million and Owens Group losses
of $3.378 million for the half year.
Revenues improved, excluding acquisitions and foreign exchange adjustments to
$290.895 million, an increase of 13.9%. All revenues increased to $431.128
million, up from $245.145 million in the previous year's corresponding
period.
The Owens result included after tax abnormal costs to Mainfreight of $1.983
million. While trading losses and costs from Group Services were incurred in
the first half, second half trading is expected to improve significantly as
business performance and trading conditions improve. Further abnormals are
likely as Owens position itself for the long term.
Trading across the balance of the Mainfreight Group is very strong through
the third quarter and results are expected to further improve throughout the
second half.
New, improved, banking arrangements have been confirmed to cater for the
Owens acquisition.
Cashflows for the Group were impacted by the Owens Group requirements.
Excluding Owens, operating cash flows remained positive. Business
improvement and the divestment process being completed will see cash flows
return to normal expected levels.
Divisional Commentary
New Zealand Domestic
Performance remains strong in our most profitable division with EBIT
improving 7.4% to $8.985 million. Revenues are increased 10.5% to $96.686
million. Third quarter trading is very strong as market growth continues.
New Zealand International
Strong performance from Mainfreight International is overshadowed by the
continuing unsatisfactory performance of Lep International. While improving
as the third quarter commences, year end results are likely to be affected
accordingly.
Australian Domestic
Strong revenue growth of 41.4% to $35.355 million sees EBIT recover from a
loss of $3.251 million to a loss of $1.501 million, an improvement of 53.8%.
This trend continues as third quarter trading further improves our position.
Quality warehousing and distribution services are retaining and growing the
customer base with opportunity growth being the highest we have experienced.
Australian International
Improvement continues for both operations with revenue growth improving 18.7%
excluding acquisitions and foreign exchange. EBIT growth continues up 40.2%
to $2.185 million. A particularly good performance from Lep International
has assisted. Third quarter trading remains very positive.
USA and Asia
Both operations are trading well with CaroTrans in the USA improving EBIT
contributions by 395%. Port disruption and congestion in the USA may have
some effect on this growth during the second half, however it is anticipated
that EBIT returns will remain well ahead of the year previous. Trading
between all of the International operations is far ahead of any previous year
and continues to lay a good foundation for further profitable growth long
term.
Owens Group
Significant restructure and divestment has occurred since the majority
shareholding was acquired in November 2003. During this period significant
change has taken place including divestments and a more defined strategic
direction focusing on international and domestic freight forwarding
complimenting the operations of the Mainfreight Group.
Abnormal costs have been incurred with Group losses amounting to $3.378
million to the half year.
As divested businesses are exited a focus has been taken to ensure long term
profitability. The New Zealand domestic operations are seeing improved sales
and margins as the third
3cps per share dividend announced later yesterday. :)
Paper Tiger talks to himself some more, would anybody else care to contribute to this thread?
After rising to 210 on reaching the NZ50 a couple of weeks ago this badly overlooked little gem of a share sauntered down to the $2 mark. However the half year result has been well received by the market and nipped back up again. Today, which admittedly is a market up day sees the price rising to 213.
It is my firm belief, obviously, that this is a SP on the rise.
You sound slightly MIFT at the response tigerish one. When a share saunters down macdunk gallops off much better find a share on a steep trend.
macdunk
Very Droll :DQuote:
quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor
You sound slightly MIFT at the response tigerish one. When a share saunters down macdunk gallops off much better find a share on a steep trend.
macdunk
With a long term hold one must weather the peaks and troughs of gathering a fortune, firm in the belief that you will be richer for it. [:p]
With a nice little speculative stock then when the tide turns this tiger can run like a leopard. ;)
I much prefer my SP downs to be a saunter to the steep dive you claim to like my friend :)
I will talk with you Paper Tiger mon.
I'm also a long term holder of MFT with no immediate intention of selling.
On the plus side I see mon:
Nice reliable dividends 6.5cps pa.
Recent 6 monthly profit up 79% (excluding Owens).
Just broke through resisitence at around $2.06 and now at all time high.
Institutional interest (Fisher Funds, Brook)
In NZX50 and reasonable liquidity.
On the down side mon:
Owens making losses and taking longer to make profitable
Toll lerking around
Hi there, papery tig!
Scamper is a long-term holder of these, entry at 106, so the div is ok, but the div at current entry levels aint much.
I like this company as a good kiwi people-and-community oriented outfit. works hard to promote from within, big backer of BooksInHomes, etc.
Thanks for your comments, keep them coming.
cheers, scamper.
It might not be a steep enough trend for Macdunk, but it does, however, seem to be in a trend (actually slightly clearer on a log scale, but I can't paste that due to technical issues). Perhaps Macdunk just didn't notice it when it was still cheap....
MFT did recently get very close to it's 200 day SMA, but on a log scale, it would have to breach 180 to end the uptrend. The two red lines reflect resistance levels. The line at 1.95 was MFT's previous all-time high in 1997, so MFT has broken out of it's long term trading range, and more recently is showing (hopefully) signs of braking the resistance at around 2.05 of recent times. Apologies for the uselessness of the Volume chart.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v3...z/mftnov23.gif
Disc: MFT
Thank you, it is nice to know I am not alone. [:0]
Owens has been the real fly in the ointment for Mainfreight, they turned out to be a bigger mess than expected. I think they had to sell off more of the Owens bits than was originally intended, but they did not fit and it saved needing to ask us for more money.
However, the right things are happening, which unfortunately takes time.
I admit the divvy is not epic, but it is the equivalent of 4.55% gross at 213 a share, and this is a growth stock remember.
I dont think it is owens which is the fly in the ointment but TOLL.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger
Thank you, it is nice to know I am not alone. [:0]
Owens has been the real fly in the ointment for Mainfreight,
If mft could have got all of owens then it was a very good move for mft, but with toll on the scene doing the "ultimate" merging of mft and owens businesses now becomes quite hard. i personally think that the govt should have stepped in and stopped toll purchasing such a stake.
basically they did it because:
1) mft was one of the main drivers to take the monopoly of the movement of longhaul freight off rail
2) mft was also one of the main drivers to take the monopoly of the unpacking of LCL container freight off the ports
Toll knows that mft is a "go-ahead" company and its stake in owens is purely a blocking stake. they wont contribute anything to owens. this tatic is ok is there is healthy competition in the market but there is not...just like the airlines the power supply etc etc in this country.
The other millstone around mft's neck is its aust operations.its been trying there for 12-13 years (hey maybe whs is using mft's theory re aust ..."try,try.try,try...etc,etc,etc)
I've never owned mft but have considered it right from the ipo...aust has always been the reason why i haven't invested.
those are my thoughts from sitting on the sideline
I have been very happy with MFT.
I bought in at 1.41 in June 2002 again at 1.41 in Oct 2003 and finally at 1.95 in Oct 2004.
I think the recent price rise may have something to do with MFT just entering the NZX50. So some instutions have had to start buying it. This may continue for a while longer. Surely FONZ which promises to hold no more than 5% of any one stock will have to buy some MFT.
rmbbrave:
The current share price has to do with the confidence people have of a reasonable end of year result. I do not know whether all the index funds have bought up yet, thinking about it, it is possible that the funds review their waitings end of month or some other future date, volumes have been lower than I would have expected. So we may see further rises in the near term while supply and demand do their ballet, but longer term the SP is about the future prospects of this company.
madmike:
I do not want the government stepping in on commercial transactions as a rule, including in this case. I am happy for them to have a strong regulatory role in strategic and monopoly industries. Also I was glad that they saved Air New Zealand.
It would be easier for Mainfreight if Toll did not have a stake in Owens, but they have effective control. The decisions and the costs remain the same, unfortunately Toll reap some of the benefit.
If Toll were offering a level of service meeting Mainfreights requirements at a reasonable cost Mainfreight would happily let Toll shift containers round the country for them.
Toll is aggressive, but so is Mainfreight. Hopefully the shareholders and the country will benefit.
215 +2 Buy 215 Sell 219 [^]
220 +4 Buy 220 Sell 230 [^][^]
It's rising so fast I've got a nose bleed. :)
220 was my end of year target for Mainfreight, this was on the assumption that it was turning more profit than it has so far acheived. However practically all commentators have been bullish about them for a few months and with Mainfrieght and other players in the logistics sector being very upbeat about the second half year my crystal ball says that $2.50 is the minimum for the end of year announcement, when the profit will be [:I]$10M[:I] plus.
These are my guessing for you to throw back at me later.[8D]
Toll has been reported as lining up another major acquisition.
Could MFT be the target???
Happy investing
Morch :)
only chance if plested retires and wants his $$$$$$$$. he'll be selling a few (people) down the drain if he does offload.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Morch
Toll has been reported as lining up another major acquisition.
Could MFT be the target???
Happy investing
Morch :)
my wouldn't you like to hear a few stories i could tell!!!???
I have amended this, don't how I went wrong.Quote:
quote:
my crystal ball says that $2.50 is the minimum for the end of year announcement, when the profit will be $18M plus
But 10M is a definite minimum in my opinion. [Until I amend it again [:I]]
The SP has gone from $2.16 to $2.35 since Xmas and we have bids at $2.37 and sellers want $2.60 [:0]
The third quarter has just ended and I have a suspicion that some know that the future is looking bright. I have had a target price of $2.50 for the end of year announcement (late May) based upon a NPAT for Mainfreight/Owens of $10M (MFT $12M, OWN -$2M), this would give a P/E of 24. I await the quarter results announcement to update the figures.
Looking forward to the 2005-6 year then I am expecting a significant improvement on the NPAT, the SP to rise well above the market average, but the P/E to come back to something more realistic.
It's looking good [8D]