Good to see that Tower have bought another 1% of MFT whilst they are both undervalued by the market. :)
Disc MFT & TWR
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Good to see that Tower have bought another 1% of MFT whilst they are both undervalued by the market. :)
Disc MFT & TWR
The connection being?Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger
Good to see that Tower have bought another 1% of MFT whilst they are both undervalued by the market. :)
Disc MFT & TWR
Someone is giving MFT shares away for a mere $2.50 each for you bargin hunters out there.
Disc: Have lots and I am keeping them.
I was quite surprised to see only a buyer at $2 at open this morning. I was tempted to put in an order at $2.01 myself, in case anyone was so foolish!
I'm altogether mystified about the recent share price performance! [:0]
I think we are agreed that the 22 Feb report for Q3 was a good'un: +20% over same period last year; rev +50% or, excluding acquisitions and forex, +15%; and "trading indicators into Q4 to date will provide a pleasing full-year result".
so, is there a secret something that we don't know about -- the downward wobbles start well before the rest of the market's. I notice that the price was also 250 on 18 March (was P.Tiger a buyer?).
My scan of the charts indicate that mft is not a buy atm, because indicators suggest there is more downside to come. I guess the price has well outstripped the divi (about 2.5% at 255), so it could be that people are taking the capital gain.
I would dearly love to increase my holding, because the fundamentals are so good, as per PT's post above. however, I reckon the next few weeks will continue to drift unless some news comes out.
I sort of see that 245 may be a resistance level -- anybody have any ideas about when scamper should top up? [:I]
I will admit I bought MFT last time they were down this far, but as trading stock and I sold them at $2.64 not long after.
Unfortunately I have no spare cash at this moment otherwise I would take another punt.
Where the price goes in the near future I can not predict but you could put a bid in at some sensible number and see if you get a bite.
Good fishing ;)
PS The downward wobbles started 10-Mar with the rest of the market.
PPS so much of this stock is held by institutions at this moment with various Fisher controlled funds and Tower etc and I do not see them selling out in the near future.
MFT could be good buying today. After breaking through support at 2.40, and then finding some resistance back up through 2.40, it seems the SP might turn round and close back through 2.40 today. It has yet to break it's recent downtrend, but some room for cautious optimism.
DISC: interested buyer
Personally I thought that MFT is not ripe for a buy for a year or so, until they increase their net profit. Their rev is twice their cap which is good, but their net is so low that their P/E is 66.5! Their profit margin is not healthy either, which I think means they will need to go through a streamlining process in the next couple of years. If the increases continue and share price stays about equal, then I think a buy when their P/E is down to 10. Plus it is not a value buy yet, as the companies equity is less than its market cap
I don't profess to really understand company financials (mostly coming from a technical perspective), but you can calculate their P/E on a lot of different figures, and it seems that you've either borrowed an automatically calculated one, or are deliberately making an extreme calculation. Looking at their performance for the first 9 months, I get an EPS of 10.7, giving a PE of about 23. Although this wouldn't be the first time I've shown my extreme ignorance of such things.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by optiontrader
their net is so low that their P/E is 66.5!
Yes, I see where you got your information from, I just picked up my P/E from nzx. Excellent then, MFI's P/E is coming down fast. I will purchase when it reaches 10-12
LOL :D
So, if was currently trading on a P/E of 8.9, would you buy it?
1/4, 1/2, & 3/4 financials are out, read them, use a calculator.
End of year financials are 5 weeks away. [:p]
Of course I would at 8.9 :)
Here are the fundamentals for MFT given by Direct Broking.
They don't look good. The P/E is 65 - which is terrible.
Fundamentals : Mainfreight Limited Ordinary Shares
Total Issue 95,887,190
Market Capitalisation $230,129,256 (@ 240)
Full Year Profit 3,441,000.00 (NZD)
Earnings/Share 3.6900 cents
Price/Earnings Ratio 65.0407
NTA/Share 35.4700 (NZD) cents
Dividend/Share 6.5000 (NZD) cents
Dividend Yield 2.7%
Fin Data has a differnet set of figures with a P/E of 29.
Sector: Transport
PE: 28.96
EPS: 0.0694
Dividend: 0.097
Market Cap: $234,923,600
NTA: 0.2871
52 Week High/Low: 2.75 / 1.74
I don't know which of these is most out of date but there are plenty of good compnies with P/E's of 10-15 about.
Last years reported profit was $5.968M - ie 6.2cents a share ... at 245 a PE of 39.
The problem with MFT financials is there are so many restructuring costs, abnormals and all that sort of crap you have to be a Mainfrieght insider to know what is really going on.
At least they seem to now reporting consolidated group earnings ... presumably because they are now in profit after reporting a loss in the 1st quarter of the year.
Reported NPAT this year will prob be in excess of $10M - say 10 cents a share. Strip out a lot of one off sort of stuff if you want and eps prob be about 16 c/s ... giving it a pe of about 15. This is a bit more respectable but assumes that all the one off sort of crap and other excuses will be gone in the future
Some are forecasting eps of 25 cents next year - if this eventuates than todays 245 might be cheap
However too unclear and too hard to assess what is crap in the results and what is likely in the future for me to get too interested ... and MFT is priced today assuming that everything will be alright.
In other words leave any purchase decision to the charts
This just gets funnier. :D
So optiontrader, have you done the sums like I suggested?
Or are you just going to buy some MFT tomorrow given that you think they are such a good deal?
Quoted figures are often wrong, rmbbraves post shows that.
P/E ratios of historical profit, even if it is correct, and current share price can tell a very misleading story.
I have got my calculator out, and I can't see where you are getting your P/E of 8.9 from... therefore I don't see them as a good deal at the moment, as I said before, in a few years perhaps
MFT is not quite ripe enough yet, I agree with winner69, the charts should rule for a bit here
Optiontrader:
The profit for the third quarter was $6.6M (i.e. the running profit for the year, went from $1.1M to $7.7M) Annualise that and you get a P/E of 8.9. The fourth quarter was probably better yet.
But the real question is where does it go from here and not where was it last year. ;)
... which was the original point of my post(!), I was just too lazy to post a chart. So anyway, MFT is a bit hard to fit a trend to (in part because I can't get it with a log scale). Suffice to say, that it's declined fairly heavily from its highs, and would have broken a trailing stop if I could draw one. It also recently looked like support had turned into resistance at $2.40, but it closed through that yesterday. However, a more conservative buy signal would be to wait until the current short-term downtrend (red line), has broken. It's stilll ages away from the appropriate moving average, but you'd have lost a lot of profit by then.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by optiontrader
MFT is not quite ripe enough yet, I agree with winner69, the charts should rule for a bit here
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v3...t27april05.gif
UPDATE 5:11PM. So much for the optimism of yesterday. Definitely time to hold off, and glad that I did. I'm definitely inclined to wait for real signs of a recovery.