Ok. In response to some PMs I will concede and say I am wrong and been unfair of my critical assessment of recent heartland performance.
Yes, Jeff and his team are doing their darnedest in making as much money as possible. The guys are really at it and their efforts will result in a full year NPAT of say $47m. Maybe a fraction more.
That's a fantastic result compared to the $36m made last year.
To align my financial model to HNZ forecast I have had to wind back growth expectations, reduced the NIM I was using to less than last year, increased bad debts but keep the cost of doing business much the same. HER seems to be doing better than I expected so left my assumptions about that the same. . So my forecast slightly above $47m now.
The worry is that H2 earnings will be the same as The first half. That still has me stuffed but a worrying sign that growth has stopped - and maybe earnings are starting to decline as the fourth quarter earnings are going to be less than the third quarter.
I don't think I'll bother to even try to forecast FY16 until after the full year announcement and hearing what Jeff says. Hope this half is just a blip on the long term growth path.
So all honky dory, esp if HNZ if is as roger says might now just be a yield play