Multitude of vaccines on the way, and people over virtual meetings so SKO might be in the money sooner than I budgeted.
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Multitude of vaccines on the way, and people over virtual meetings so SKO might be in the money sooner than I budgeted.
Serko is looking good. There should be another bounce with the trans-Tasman and Cook Is bubbles confirmed for sometime in Q1 2021
You could as well argue that the expectation for travel to come back to pre Covid levels next year is already fully priced in given that SKO SP is already now on pre-Covid levels.
So far I think that this expectation is pretty optimistic :): People will travel less in the years to come, even if the borders start to re-open in the second half of next year.
In my public sector department, I have been told travel (even within New Zealand) is currently off the table. I'm told that the Covid experience has shown management we have other ways of doing things, and stopping travel is a useful cost saving.
No idea how widely this is being replicated, just a little anecdote.
Same here. Organisation of 700 FTE. Budgets are very tight and travel just isn't happening, nor will it for a long time. Makes for a lot of 1am to 4am meetings in my line.
Couldn’t agree more. I haven’t invested in travel related companies. While I hope to be proven wrong I think that.
a) budget restrictions will restrict business related travel
b) a decision supported by a lot of resistant individuals and organisations adopting virtual tools
c) this has made the use of virtual meetings, training etc possible within and between organisations
d) COVID has improved the performance and uptake of virtual tools (zoom/teams/slack etc)
e) with the tools mentioned above people have learnt that spending more time at home with family brings additional benefits and will be reluctant to revert to old ways of doing things
For these reasons I don’t see a quick return to the old normal and am thus staying away.
in fairness the contrarian view could be made that.
a) COVID has created a Yolo effect
b) recreational travel will significantly increase post COVID due to Yolo effect, catching up on lost time and people wanting to spend the increase in wealth generated over this price to due house price increases etc.
I was originally very pessimistic on post COVID 19 travel which is why I didn’t apply for the full $50,000 in the SPP. However, I see plenty of companies planning conferences and events and also I think the booking.com partnership has value.
I’m on the fence. Personally, I won’t be travelling until this coronavirus has been beaten. I want to wait but plenty don’t see anything to worry about and are ready to hop on planes and do deals in person.
I love zoom but it can’t replace everything. We aren’t at the stage where a family trip to the Gold Coast or Disneyland can be replaced by zoom or VR. Plenty of business meetings and conferences can be done via video conferencing, as we have seen, but some sales calls and meetings will need the personal touch. There’s also something about being in a room with other people that we as humans need - that personal connection
I think software companies like Serko have a future. I wouldn’t be rushing into buying into cruise ships. I think both industries are permanently going to lose around 20% of their clients, but a software company can cope with that better than a company that needs to invest bin maintaining ships
SKO is in a position to turn a profit quicker than a lot in the travel and tourism space by clipping the ticket across the board.
I hear a lot of people over the virtual space but then as pointed out companies faced with budgetary haircuts won't be flying as many people around the globe as before in the immediate future.
However, when you have people queuing up to sit in aircraft simulators for 8-9 hours at a time ... never underestimate the collective IQ.
I've never held Serko, but I was under the impression they are only involved in Corporate travel? So, it doesn't matter how much people want to go on holiday, it just matters how much companies are willing to spend sending their people around the globe again.
Yes, that's true but company paid holidays are a perk for many. It's an incentive offered for sales agents who meet targets and long service as well as annual conferences in exotic locations which are really a fancy name for a holiday but they throw in a few speakers to make it seem legit.
I think it's going to vary by country and industry. Some countries will embrace online meetings and others won't want to miss pressing the flesh and boozing with clients and coworkers in foreign lands - or local. Corporate travel booking services are also used for planning trips and conferences to bring everyone together from the same country.
As I said before I think corporate and pleasure travel won't return to previous levels but I could easily be wrong
HAHA yes the collective IQ
And people queuing up to be served a meal on a grounded plane
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/di...es-11602601284
Big rise in Serko share price today and a new high. Does someone know something that hasn't been announced to the markets?
Could be but other travel stocks (AIA, AIR) fell yesterday so a one-day 33c rise for SKO is a big leap. Reminds me of the unusual jump in BGP the other week just before they announced their special divvie so will keep an eye out next week to see if SKO has some news we're not aware of yet (but the market is...)
I bought a large pile @ $5.70 yesterday. I'm always amazed this company doesn't get talked about more, it has the strongest bull case of any company on the NZX imo. If they continue expanding into North America and Europe, the runway is huge and with a market cap of ~600M the share price has plenty of legs left.
I know you can make a bear case that covid will linger, corporate travel will never return to previous levels etc but the risk/reward ratio for Serko is incredible imo.
I think what people have an issue is with the worsening financials and the company being valuated at a higher market cap than before COVID which without a question disputed the business for the short-medium term. The possibilities of growth with this company are "amazing" on paper but you need actual proof of concept. The booking.com liaison helped but the company is still in it's somewhat early business stages.
Based on revenue and NPAT at this time the market cap isn't exactly a screaming bargain. Then again riding the uptrend which then eventuates in a takeover or something else is a possibility too.
Without a doubt, like all growth companies there is an element of risk. I just believe Serko provides a better risk/reward ratio than any other company on the NZX. Certainly it's not a screaming bargain but if you believe in the long term story that doesn't matter too much.
The company has more cash than it did pre-covid after the well timed cap raise a few months ago. Darrin Grafton is an excellent CEO and I love the direction he's steering the company in:
“We actually increased our full-time employee count from 232 to 240,” Grafton says.
“There’s going to be so many opportunities for technology that manages risk, compliance, cost savings, expenditures – all of that will become spotlight. So we need the people to drive that.”
In September, Serko raised another $36.4 million to gear up for future growth – buoyed by corporate travel recovering to 86% of pre-pandemic levels in New Zealand and overall travel recovering to 50% in Australia and New Zealand, according to Grafton.
Serko has hired about 50 people this fall and plans to add another 100 by next May – some slated to work on things such as AI-based solutions and disruption management tools for airlines, and others available to work on “the unknown ... the things we haven’t even thought of yet.”
“We will probably end up with the largest travel tech team in the world,” Grafton says.
“We haven’t stopped executing. We’ve 100% remained realistic about the crisis and what we have to do and the cost control. We communicate clearly. We’ve said, ‘We are going to burn up to NZ$2 million a month.’ And then we told people even when we raise money, we are going to increase that burn because we still see more and more opportunities through this and eventually it will balance out and we can get through 2024 with that model.”