Do you think those who complained that Z energy were making monopolistic-type profits will now turn around and say that Z should actually increase their margins? I doubt it somehow.
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I doubt it too :)
Plenty of reasons for Z's profit fall, as outlined in the CEO's briefing. The one that could/should have been managed by the company was the drop in market share, especially in petrol. Perhaps the switch in supermarket affiliation to Foodstuffs from Countdown isn't a big success with customers despite the significant sales of fuel to the former.
Yeh thats the one that got me changing...
I'm really having a gutsful of loyalty marketing and plastic cards from retailers and hookups between petrol, supermarket etc
So its quite possible others are too.
'Waitomo' are making small inroads as well.
Does everyone use the app 'Gaspy' to find cheapest petrol?
crude down 15% from the highs last couple weeks , nz dollar up from lows.
mike bennetts comments
“Margins typically come under pressure when crude prices rise steeply, as prices at the pump lag behind the increases in the price of crude oil, and customers are sensitive to new, higher price points.”
wow so now the margins will be enormous and the price at the pump hasnt even fallen back to comparable levels lol . even fatter margins
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1811/S00021/z-energy-cuts-guidance-a-second-time-as-1h-earnings-drop-21.htm
Nov 4. (Reuters) - The oil market’s two-year bull run is running into one of its biggest tests in months, facing a tidal wave of supply and growing worries about economic weakness sapping demand worldwide...
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-oil-rally/oil-rally-faces-tidal-wave-of-supply-idUKKCN1N904U
If their competitors also increased their prices as a result of increasing oil prices, it could be that Z is being generous by offering discounts?
However generally that annoys me too. Z is not the only retailer that does that. Isn’t it widespread throughout retailing? Does there need to be a tightening up of general legislation?
ComCom have a guideline on price discounting here: https://comcom.govt.nz/consumers/dea...rvices/pricing
there is another aspect of the Z discounting that worries me.When they have a special (like 10cents off).The price of fuel is reduced on their signage by the 10cents,you fill up then find out you don't get the discount without producing a flybuys card.What happens if you don't have one,do you ask for the petrol to be taken out!
I'm back in on this one after 4 yrs, it's way oversold.
Hamish Rutherford might need to update this article, after the last couple of days. We're way past a $500M loss now.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/108...more-than-500m
I wonder what industry is next for Government attention? Hard to know where to invest just now.
A major rort being perpetrated on N.Z. motorists now by both Cindy's kindy and the fuel companies. Absolutely scandalous when oil has been tracking down steadily for weeks now and the currency steadily heading higher. You can see why people are updating to more fuel efficient vehicles with blatant highway robbery going on left right and center. Pity the poor consumers who have to use 98 Octane fuel which is another scandal all of its own with the premium over 91 often being more than 30 cents per liter ! No wonder I can't get much as a trade-in for my Chrysler SRT8 V8 that drinks 98 Octane like a fish on steroids.
Today’s announcement with supplementary commentary meant to ‘clarify’ some confusion about what was in previous announcements
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...267/289820.pdf
If anything (to stupid punters like me) it seems even more obtuse than before ....maybe strategy to utterly confuse punters (sorry investors) akin as to how they confuse motorists with their pump pricing.
Red flag for me
No wonder share price still falling
Suppose you need to believe that F19 divie will be between 32 cents and 41 cents ...so expect a final divie between 19.5 cents and 28.5 cents ..yes?
Do you mean interim div in a few weeks, if so its 12.5c. No shortage of folks buying guzzlers unfort.
Double-cab Ute Nation | RNZ - Radio NZhttps://www.radionz.co.nz/programmes/two-cents-worth/.../double-cab-ute-nation
think one can assume that divs wont be the same all the time now ( be like nz refining ... lumpy ) why because The policy is to pay out 90-100% of underlying free cash flow, calculated as net cash fromoperations less maintenance capex and debt repayments.
and all this is based on the oil price which we know is highly volatile and that will affect the figures of maintenance capex .
Plenty of buying support around the $5.20 mark, I reckon the bottom is pretty much in.
Sussed the ‘clarification’ announcement but whether it all eventuates will be another story
Might be wrong but to ensure a ‘reasonable’ dividend it appears as if they not going to reduce debt (leverage) as much as they have intended.
Going back through recent announcements they seem to have a habit of having to correct / clarify things on a regular basis .....not good for such a large company
So...save a tired dog a long read, do you think the current price after another drop today is good value or have we got more to go to the downside ? A real quick and dirty look at the gross dividend yield (assuming divvies are at the half way point and fully imputed) suggests 9.75% gross. Not too bad but this industry has very slowly building headwinds over a long period of time, (kind of the opposite to the long term steadily building tailwinds the retirement villages enjoy eh mate). Plenty of people have been burned before chasing yield in industries with long term headwinds.
That said I suppose if you pull out all the one-offs and mess up's the normalized gross yield for FY20 could be quite a bit higher ?
Was hoping Winner would give me the "good oil" (you see what I did there) :) but you're having a bob each way here me ol mate, bit like your bets on the Melbourne cup this afternoon eh. TA looks shocking. Possibly oversold as Couta1 suggests, (is there some relativity theory here Couta1 ? I ZEL = 2 Turners maybe ? (both pretty mangy looking mutts aren't they !)
FY19 and 9.75 % gross yield (mid point) is not enough to get me invested in a long term headwinds stock so I guess I have to take a really deep dive into the results presentation and form a view on FY20 earnings and sustainability thereof going forward and gross yield http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...101/289637.pdf...or much easier I could just let the average analyst numbers do the talking.
Pretty interesting yield based on average analyst forecast, using a reference price of $5.175 this morning, $5.30 less almost immediate return of 12.5 cps for imminent dividend = $5.175) for FY20 of 9.9% net (13.7% gross) and for FY21 11% net (15.3% gross)
https://www.marketscreener.com/Z-ENE...15/financials/
Been reading one or two articles lately about the pressure on battery manufactures to get the necessary resources for electric car batteries and how the rate of decline in the cost of manufacture has started to slow. Maybe mass production of electric vehicles with decent range at an affordable price is a bit further out than I previously thought...or is that forecast FY21 yield just drawing me in like a beagle to a juicy bowl of dog food ? Hmmmmm In for a small parcel this morning...the dividend hound in me can't resist those forecast yields !
A lot of one-off's impacted the first half. Probably oversold a bit but TA looks dreadful so caution is definitely warranted !
I'm a bit concerned that Z has gone from being a favourite of patriotic NZ'ers (buying from a NZ company) to outright dislike (and hence avoidance) for price gouging and that forecasts based on history may not eventuate. Sure, there is a lot of headroom within the current earnings for the continued dividend but if the sentiment goes completely against them this will only reduce and may affect payout ability. Quite a bit of debt I recall from an earlier analysis.
Waitomo is changing the model with self serve - petrol only sites - do you really need a coke and a pie from where you buy petrol if it saves you 12c a litre?
Beagle — re your comments re electric vehicles
October new car sales were a record and I noted this sentence in the report “Sales on new electric cars aren't registering and are below 'rounding error' levels”
Another great call from guru Couta
So about $5.20 was the low
All aboard the train or back the truck up or whatever the phrase us .....be 6 bucks again in no time
And they say new bicycle sales aren’t growing as fast as new vehicle sales ...go the car and stop putting in stupid expensive cycle ways
As long as it doesn't turn out like his $3.80 call on Turners :blush: we'll be alright. FY21 divvies, 5,000 shares would basically square many people's fuel costs including mine back to zero. (5,000 shares x 56.9 cps = $2,845 per annum) Natural hedge is one way of looking at it. Easy enough to do the same thing with power companies too. Funny how you start thinking as you start approaching retirement isn't it lol
https://www.marketscreener.com/Z-ENE...015/consensus/ All those guru analysts on average reckon its worth $7.14.
Sell down does look overdone based on my own analysis I reached the same conclusion as another guru on here who used the seat of the pants theorem to arrive at the same answer.
Mrs Beagle wanted asked me over lunch what I've been up to today and I said I'd been busy buying Z Energy shares. Can't go wrong with consumer staples she replied.
I don't normally listen to her comments on shares but I think she has a good point about it being a defensive consumer staple.
Analysts reckon its worth a lot more. Guru Couta1 reckons its oversold as do I. Company insiders buying on market in the last two days as well.
Gross yield of 15.5% forecast for FY21. Last time I saw something that juicy in terms of yield was HLG when it was $2.70 ! If ZEL can start paying around 50 cps per annum or slightly more in due course it is highly likely we will see a significant recovery in the SP in my opinion.
Hard to understand why the market has whacked this down by around the same percentage as the profit decline as though the reasons for that decline are permanent, when quite clearly they're not. Opportunity knocks ?