Wow. 20 million dollars worth of shares exchanged hands today. I hope new holders not gonna sell for some time.
Printable View
Wow. 20 million dollars worth of shares exchanged hands today. I hope new holders not gonna sell for some time.
$21m+ Usually a bad sign when it falls so much on very high volume.
Last time I bought at $5.20 late last year it was on a forecast gross yield of 15% and there was no known risk from exiting from the loyalty scheme and Jacinda wasn't on a rampage regarding fuel company margins, (enquiry was live but Jascinda wasn't in full attack calling the fuel companies as "fleecing" N.Z. Motorists).
At present the forecast gross forecast yield at $5.53 and assuming the mid point of dividends 49 cents fully imputed = 49 / 0.72 = 68.05 / 553 = 12.3%.
I just don't know how long the excessive discounting will last, nobody does but I do know consumers are very resistant to change, (basic human psychology), so my central theme is heavier discounting for longer.
Then there's Jacinda who will be absolutely desperate to make political capital out of the fuel companies after effectively wiping out vast amounts of her political capital this week. Even though interest rates are a lot lower this year than last I think I'd need to see very close to that 15% again to get me tempted to buy back in given the extra risks this time. 68.05 / 0.15 suggests $4.54 as an apparently attractive point where all currently known risks are well and truly fully factored into the share price.
I remain of the view that last year's low of $5.18 is going to be tested in due course and it wouldn't surprise me if it charts a new lower low from there.
Keeping my powder dry at this stage.
IMO, going as low as 5.18 is usually a good incentive to test the 5. ...as for myself, will buy another 1253 below 5, say around 4.93...maybe an outlier, but usually, they have a good chance to be in the money. As long as panic persists, this may have a good chance of success
Oh hold on you talk about 4.54 well let's do it.
IMO, if price really goes below 5, then further price direction will depend on how price will try to trade above 5 again. A weak recovery above 5 will indicate failure and the most likely outcome will be 4.75 or 4.50.
Its highway robbery right on taxcinda's, opps sorry Jacinda's, doorstep in Wellington. No wonder she thinks the fuel companies are "fleecing" Kiwi's.
As Coutts suggests just up the road where there's a Gull they are forced to play nice.
I really didn't imagine they would stoop that low to raise prices before a 10 cent discount day. Suppose that makes me a little commercially naïve and / or makes Z extremely manipulative and possibly deserving of regulatory oversight. If such a thing is on public display for those that take note to have noticed, it really makes you wonder how dirty things are behind the scenes.
Maybe there is something in Jascinda's determination to bring more competition into the wholesale market and I wonder what the Govt will do about it ?
Has she got some brownie points to be won back from the public after this week or what !
So in terms of notable next events to chart a path to this being possibly de-risked.
First up we have the half year results, (which last year were announced on 1 November). I think at that point ZEL would have a better handle on how the change in loyalty scheme is affecting margins, (they will have full month impact for August and September and indicative impact for October by then), and what the full year prognosis is for that so its highly likely we'll get a full year guidance update at that point.
Then there's the final recommendations of the fuel study, sorry can't remember when that's going to be released, can anyone help with a timeline on that ?
Did it go something like "This year next year sometime never"?Quote:
Then there's the final recommendations of the fuel study, sorry can't remember when that's going to be released, can anyone help with a timeline on that ?
;)
This week’s announcement reports on both lost volume and reduced margins .....double ouch
Sept quarter stats will be interesting .... esp their market share.....which hasn’t been growing of late.
Maybe their ‘strategy’ is a bit wonky ....takes more than a few buzz words and cool presentations to win.
Z industry lingo is rather confusing for plebs but like me
When I read this in the June quarter stats I thought it was quite positive - The percentage of fuel sold on discount decreased during the quarter .... ...sort of suggests less discounting ...good
From last week’s announcement re their margin problem maybe that Statement in July meant something else.
I was really impressed with their earlier presentation when it said instore weekly sales were up 10% year on year as its instore where the "fleecing" really does goes on.
Fuel margins and volume must be under really intense pressure to get a downgrade of that magnitude barely a month after the new loyalty scheme has started.
I'm going to call it and remember who did it first. This is NOT their last downgrade of the FY20 year ! Mark my words.
It seems that the millions of AIRPOINTS members aren’t doing their bit.
Wasn’t that a game changer .....at least the excitement when it was announced suggested so
IMHO this is the crux of Z's margin/profitability issues.
Put simply Airpoints/Flybuys etc only serve to confuse price comparison and the public are are increasingly sceptical that they provide any value (or reason to buy Z over other fuel suppliers.)
(Airpoints/Flybuy's are also relatively more expensive/inefficient for a company to run as compared to cut price offers.)
As a result I suspect fuel companies that offer a clear simple price saving are the companies that consumers are increasingly switching to (and Z's margin issues are evidence of this.)