Im sure someone on this forum has a signature about that.
“I know that I am intelligent, because I know that I know nothing “ — Socrates
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Socrates would average in over time because of that.;)
dont know why anyone would buy a business in structural decline over time , means lower divs and profits going forward over time and the loss of your capital. competition from low price operators is only going to get worse for shell. there stores cant cvompete with the bp's who are the leaders in store sales and the prices cant compete with gull.
ZEL share price was in decline before the last shocking downgrade in earnings. Thought I would mark guidances on the share price chart. Interesting
Nonetheless the future is what matters
Future is looking good - here's why
- An earnings upgrade is imminent which will reverse the last couple of legs down
- We have a bullish gartley pattern. Didn't show it on the chart as it didn't look very gartleyish
- Neighbours bowling club mates have ZEL as one of their picks in the competition. Dead keen to buy I'm told.
So all looking good on the ZEL front - 6 bucks is on the horizon
Great discussion sharerers Certainly not a recco from me , just what i believe for me with ZEL atpit, albeit a reluctant contrarian. Little value to be found on the NZX in this dodgy mkt. Happy to utilise KW's simplistic M/A T/A combined with fundamentals. Beyond that its investor bias entrapment imo.
Is that the Hataitai Bowling Club 157 Hataitai rd W69? Come on down folks.
How many bowlers does it take to change a tungsten lightbulb ? 4. 3 to walk backwards and forwards debating how fast or slow the green is and the skip who gets it in one end.
10 cents per liter off today. I see a bullish queue pattern forming at the bowsers followed by a frustrating sticky seat pattern as people's ice-creams melt lol
I don't know bull...they could be buying for the 14.5% yield you never know...that might have something to do with it eh :)
The For ahgong - this is where Beagles 14.5% yield comes from
Divie yield is divie (gross) divided by share price.
Forecast divies are -
F19 ...39.2 cents
F20 ...51.0 cents
F21 ...56.9 cents
Plus imputation credits
So even for F19 yield is 7.3% or 10.1% gross
Pretty cool eh
Thanks Winner. See also post #684 for how the gross up of the dividends works with imputation credits.
Worth noting that based on forecast net yield the payback period for one's investment is only 10 years....i.e. probably before EV's make any meaningful impact on fuel volumes.
Hey Bull, That could be another reason people are investing. :p
Every company in every market has issues and IMHO you've got to make a decision sometime if you're in or out. For me I bought at the IPO @ 350 and topped up last week at 560 giving me an average cost of 456 so on current divi of 34.4c I'm looking at 7.5% imputated return. If there's a lift in share price well and good but I've bought for the divi. I also hold ZEL050, coupon 4.32, yield 3.85.
im surprised you consider investing just on a dividend yield , you might get a nice one next div but in the future they will only decrease. thats why they changed there div policy.
its a value trap in my opinion unless they brought say an energy company like gne , mcy , mel lol to complement there petrol.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/valuetrap.asp
also brokers dont believe they will achieve more than 50c divs going forward
https://www.odt.co.nz/business/z-low...r-expectations
i used to trade the range between 7 - 8 very profitable now its in a downtrend i dont tounch down trending stocks maily because there there is a reason they are going down.
I know what a value trap is and don't need to read your link.
"Brokers don't believe they will achieve more than 50 cps going forward", see post #698 - If your post was true why is the average analyst forecasting dividends for FY21 56.9 cps ?
Your statement is a blatant misrepresentation of the truth.
Compound annual growth in aviation fuel supply at ~ 6% per annum is going to more than offset the very very gradual decline in fuel sales, in my opinion, due to the extremely slow and gradual uptake of EV's. I've done my own thorough review of the EV market and I believe the uptake in N.Z. will be a LOT slower than you and many other people think. I think dividends in the 50 cps per annum range are sustainable for at least the next decade, probably into the early to mid 2030's. Average analyst valuation on a DCF basis is $7.15. https://www.marketscreener.com/Z-ENE...098/consensus/
5.50 tomorrow..... according to my lines..... ( palm lines that is ) Lots of bids anyway.. thanks for the link Beagle .
MET consensus recco has been the same for 18 months though and the s/p is lower than 18 months ago. A grain of salt with this 4T data.