I see Red lights flashing for most of the NZX at current prices particularly the power companies. PS-Not into Diworsification and only hold 3 stocks(1 Divvy + 2 Growth)
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Diversification to me is 2 houses,an orchard(diversified of course),6 stocks, and a few smaller varied investments including legally tight mortgage to son.
Diworsification would be 3 stocks.
I see Red Lights everywhere but it doesnt stop me moving forward(not traffic lights).
I have no money in the bank as it would stay the same or diminish
Couta have a look back at your post # 1159 , MEL would have to fall 40 % from here to be at your "overpriced " level ....
"The market can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent" ......
Maybe something has changed ...that would be the trillions of money on negative yields around the world ...
Thoughts on what a good value price for this is now?
Nice upgrade....25mil.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/342811
Forsyth out this morning saying MCY overvalued on basically every single metric (vs rest of the gentailers - who are arguably already overvalued as a sector)
Their 12 month target price indicates share price should really be about $1 lower than current.
Back on the high side of $5.
Still my favourite power generator, and happy to hear that they are putting more wind mills up.
Huge trading volume today - 52.6m shares at $246m. The daily volume hasn't gone over about 6m in the last year (according to the Direct Broking charts). It may help explain a number of the other big volume - big value movements on the close.
NPAT circa 20% down.
Mercury - HY2020 Results and Interim Report25/2/2020, 8:31 amHALFYR[See table in News Release]
25 February 2020 – Below average generation and the divestment of smart metering business Metrix impacted Mercury’s earnings for the financial half-year to 31 December 2019, Chief Executive Fraser Whineray says.
Mr Whineray said that while earnings (EBITDAF) of $258 million ($302 million HY2019), and net profit after tax (NPAT) of $83 million ($104 million HY2019), were down on the near-record prior corresponding period, when adjusted for lower generation and the sale of Metrix the result reflected strong execution across Mercury’s business.
Highlights included:
• committing to complete the construction of NZ’s largest windfarm at Turitea by building the remaining 27 consented turbines, adding to the 33-turbine project announced earlier in 2019
• effective portfolio management to capture opportunities in a dynamic wholesale and retail market
• investment in data science and analytics capability to better inform our customer strategy
• configuration of Rotorua and Maraetai workspaces to support a more collaborative and high-performance team environment
• completion of an upgrade to our Maximo asset management system
• management of planned geothermal maintenance shuts
Generation during the period reduced by 377GWh to 3,428GWh due to drier conditions in the Waikato and important scheduled maintenance on several geothermal stations as part of Mercury’s long-term asset management plan.
Hydro generation was down 306GWh to 2,142GWh (2,448GWh HY2019) while geothermal generation was down 71GWh to 1,286GWh (1,357GWh HY2019).
“While hydro generation was below the mid-point forecast we had at the start of the financial year, our portfolio strategy has captured opportunities in this dynamic environment,” Mr Whineray said.
“A deliberate portfolio strategy to maintain a longer net-generation position, particularly from October, has been positive for earnings and risk management.
“Applying our expanded analytics capability helped enhance integration of our portfolio approach with our customer strategy. We have been able to better apply insights to digital initiatives that reward loyalty and value. Mercury’s focus on customer value rather than growing customer numbers at all costs saw mass market customer numbers down 16,000, however we achieved a 1.8% uplift in yield across our mass market segment through disciplined portfolio management,” Mr Whineray said.
Operating expenditure was $94 million ($99 million HY2019). Mercury’s stay-in-business capital expenditure (SIB capex) was $53 million, up $8 million on the prior corresponding period due to scheduled geothermal well drilling costs.
Free cash flow at $127 million ($126 million HY2019) was slightly up due to lower interest costs, tax paid and elevated working capital requirements in the prior corresponding period.
INTERIM DIVIDEND
Mercury’s Chair Prue Flacks said the Board had approved a fully-imputed interim dividend of 6.4 cents per share, an increase of 3.2% on HY2019, to be paid on 1 April 2020. This represents approximately 40% of the full-year ordinary dividend guidance of 15.8 cents per share.
Total shareholder return (TSR) across the 12-month period to 31 December 2019 was 43%.
Ms Flacks noted that this interim report was Fraser’s last as Chief Executive, before he leaves in March for a role at Fonterra.
“Fraser has been an inspiring leader for Mercury, and a pleasure to work with,” Ms Flacks said.
Mercury has appointed former Trustpower Chief Executive Vince Hawksworth to succeed Mr Whineray, with Mr Hawksworth joining in late April.
FULL YEAR OUTLOOK
Mr Whineray said Mercury expects to see ongoing challenging wholesale conditions due to national thermal fuel and transmission constraints, however the company’s portfolio is well positioned.
“Intense competition in retail and strained retail margins will continue to be a feature. I also anticipate further competitor decisions on new generation development and retirement,” Mr Whineray said.
“Mercury is well positioned for the full year as a result of our portfolio and channel management, reinvestment activities in generation, digital and our people, and new investment decisions.”
GUIDANCE
Mercury’s FY2020 EBITDAF guidance has been revised to $500 million, subject to any material events, significant one-off expenses or other unforeseeable circumstances including hydrological conditions. Guidance at the time of this report assumes 3,900GWh of hydro production. FY2020 SIB capex guidance is $120 million, up $15 million from initial guidance due to costs related to bringing forward the drilling of a geothermal well at Rotokawa.
FY2020 ordinary dividend guidance remains at 15.8 cents per share, fully imputed, representing a 2% increase on FY2019 and the 12th year of progressive ordinary dividends.
ENDS
MCY is UP today? No impact from smelter close down due to its customer base? And its a central north island story...
Well Done mcduffy!!!! you obviously know this stock well. Very impressive buy! yes down from 4.80 but i was expecting a 4.n handle . Sector seems to have taken the new well actually.
I have been accumulating these again and could not believe my luck when a buy order I had in for sometime was filled at the very low opening price(4.40).
Will keep on buying on the lows(I hope)
negoiating over tewai smelter still ardern saying in stuff for extension to closure
see if the belt and road wants it....that man at 4.40 is a steally eyed trader..
Yes..only GNE and MCY are in the better position as their assests all on the north n not heavy reliance on the smelter like CEN and MEL
potential bullish flag pattern from the lows at march 2020. bullish flags are normally continuation patterns of the uptrend after a period of consolidation.