As (I'm sure you realise) with all forward looking statements predictions are difficult especially about the future.
So the precise date was a little tongue in cheek, but I did actually apply fibonacci time analysis fwiw.
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S+P downgrades whole Australian banking industry
ANZ estimates cost of levy - we estimatethat the annual financial impact of the tax would have been approximately $345 million on abefore tax basis, and approximately $240 million after tax.
Discl (no position) but I will confess pride is at stake. :p
only 240m? how much did they make 2.9b? so less than 1% 'actual' impact, yet the share price of ANZ fell how much this month? nearly 15% or something? (mostly due to the budget tax I believe)
(Made a mistake... actually 8 ish %)
might want to refresh your calculus lessons ...
240 m would be roughly 8.3% of 2.9 b, quite a significant take.
Customers will cover this - higher mortgage rates and lower deposit rates etc
And the average Aussie thinks the banks are getting their comeuppance - when they themselves are the victims
New Levy + Australia-wide Banking downgrade + Australian Housing debt = lots of negative vibes
S&P cites risk of sharp correction in property prices as it cuts 23 lenders' ratings
http://www.smh.com.au/business/banki...22-gwa6pd.html
Moody's say Australian bank performance steady, but latent risks rising in household sector
http://www.reuters.com/article/brief...-idUSFWN1IJ00L
Fitch: Australia Budget Negative for Banks but Impact Manageable
http://www.reuters.com/article/fitch...-idUSFit998955
ANZ on NZX down 3c today, up 3c where it really matters, on ASX. Dare one suggest (hope?) that the downgrades have now been largely digested by the markets?
:mellow:
yeh, a 5.7 billion annual profit so an estimated 245m levy is pretty insignificant. especially as folks say, it will be passed on to customers.
its all those assets that are the problem huh? $1,154b of them according to a back of the envelope calculation. return on those is pretty abysmal. wouldnt take much of a % loss in those to smash that profit.
discl no holding.
Statement to shareholders https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/258875.pdf
ends with
ANZ is well positioned to continue delivering for shareholders and all our other stakeholders. :p