Lol only 8% down.
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We might in the different world...are u in a la la land..? We are in Aotearoa Bru...
Looking at this article on film release delays maybe VGL has a long road ahead of it...
https://stuff.co.nz/entertainment/fi...due-to-covid19
VGL was the only red ink in my portfolio and as I watch the relentless march of Covid throughout the world, I've changed my mind on the long term value of holding onto VGL.
In short, I'm fearful for the short term 1-3 year future of the movie industry.
As a result, I've sold my remaining shares (at a small loss) and will put the money into safer shares. GLH.
I wish I had done the same...
I was influenced by my broker. Craigs are still very bullish on the long term prospects for VIsta. Vista have a moat but it’s useless when the world is closed!
I probably should have sold at a loss when the shares went up to nearly $2
I bought at around $5. I topped up at $1.05 but it’s still a massive loss.
I was quite hopeful about the shares until the second wave of coronavirus started in Australia. As for the USA… That’s ridiculously out of control.
Realistically the starting point is what can I get for it now and what could I buy with that which might be a better investment. But it’s hard not to cling to the hope that this can come right.
It might be better to bail but I should at least have bailed 80 cents higher. Sigh. Generally my worst investments are the ones that Craig’s recommenced. The ones I have done on my own are better. I think the only good investment that Craigs recommended was ports of Tauranga. Don’t even get me started on ZEL
I've had bad experience with Craig's........ however it made me realise Brokers have their own agenda. It was a good learning curve. Always DYOR and take responsibility for your own decisions.
It's not the end of the world. Years ago I was in PEB. Rode it up and doubled my money.... didn't sell then..... and instead got trapped as the SP fell. Fortunately I got out with a small profit, but not much.
Point is..... I got out at about 60c.
Over the next few years my money was in ATM and doing v well, while PEB kept falling to around the 6c level! :scared: If I had left my money in PEB it would have seriously devalued.
Thing is I kept PEB on my watch list.
Earlier this year I started noticing PEB kept turning up in the 'top daily gainers list' as the SP rose from the low.
When PEB reached the 'golden cross' level on the TA at about 15 - 20c, settling into a definite up trend (see chart below,) I started buying and now hold an XXOS holding (much bigger than my original holding) at an av price of around 40c.
Here's the TA chart, and you don't often see such a strong BUY signal, and such a strong uptrend as PEB at this time.
Attachment 11811
Forgive me for rambling on, but sometimes when a share is on a deep down trend like VGL, it is best to quit your losses, get out and get your money working for you elsewhere else ( even cash in the bank is not silly at the moment,)........ but always keep an open mind, I still v much like VGL and as soon as the TA trend changes to a 'golden cross' I will be back in, (just like I was with PEB.)
All this JMHO..... as always DYOR and take responsibility for your own decisions.
Thanks for that Left Field, a very helpful post :)
Thanks for the tips Left field.
I have never got into TA and I have always been more of a Buffett fan (our favourite holding time is forever) which generally has served me well but I need to reevaluate all of my Craigs inspired purchases. At the time I was unwell and gave them a portion of money to manage. Those are by and large my worst performers. Gentrack, Vista, Z (recommended for dividends), etc. Some of the shares I purchased on their recommendation but most of my international shares and a few New Zealand shares are held under Craigs management through their nominee. Maybe I will just sell up and have them return the money. I need to check the tax implications of selling US shares first. Overall Craigs were not a success and I have no reason to believe that will change. They even recommended the recent IFT SPP which made sense given it was at a relatively high point.
i only had a very small holding of VGL , purchased at an incredible 5.60 and now obviously down a huge percentage.
I took up the SPP , and recently tripled my holding.
I thought about the movie industry as being something that has survived numerous setbacks over the last hundred and twenty years or so, and it has always come back despite TV, despite pirates, despite affordable large screens in the homes. I believe it will survive in the long run though we could be talking a good few years. So I have no immediate expectations of being in the black but because even now it it still quite a small holding I can wait.
Don't forget Vista has a lot of recurring revenue to tide it over, and has done the right things to get it through these tough times.
A bit like airports, how long before AIA is profitable again, 3-5 years?
Nice post Leftfield...
In this instance taking buy advice using TA instead of listening to the so-called financial experts would've saved you some money..
Seeing these posts makes me think VGL could be a contrarian buy :)..
Most people think of the future with today's and past perspectives instead of thinking today with future perspectives..(90% of people are natural Linear Thinkers)
Successful companies change and innovate when it's present environment become unhealthy...We just have to figure out if VGL is one.
Disc: Have VGL shares
@hoop you make a good point about the recurring revenue. I believe VGL have adapted by creating software to allocate seats that allow for social distancing and there was some talk about adapting software for pay for view TV but I’m not sure about that.
a lot of growth was factored into the price as well (at the highs), also true for AIA .... and that (super growth) will take a lot longer if ever now, which does affect price quite a lot. (though less in AIA's case I guess because it has more tangible assets)
I would suggest that it is and has shown itself to be so firstly by achieving the world domination that it has (exaggeration for effect - - but I think it is indisputably up there in the global industry)
Secondly as an example I posted earlier there latest s/w release included covid-19 isolating seating patterns to assist cinemas that were operating. But you only need to read their news announcemnents to see they are always moving and growing.
Of course...... trouble with contrarian buys is that you are still locking your money away for an unknown time in a down trend.......waiting, waiting, waiting.... for the BIG UPWARD trend change.
IMHO it is much better to sit on the sidelines with your money either safe or working well in other investments and only enter again when the SP Trend starts moving up, and the volumes traded start showing some excitement.
Besides, there are heaps of 'contrarian buys' out there..... THL, AIR, RAK etc to name a few.
FA tells me what to buy/sell.
TA tells me when to buy/sell it. I don't care about 'picking the bottom' I would rather buy in to a sustained upward trend, preferably signalled by a 'golden cross'. (PEB is a classic example of this at the moment.)
Any share in my portfolio showing a prolonged downtrend or a prolonged sideways trend usually gets axed.
It would be boring if we all traded the same way (after all that's what the market is about.)
I just think : it is trading at less than 30% or 20% compare to ATH , And important of all : 60% of it's income is garanteed by it's customers despite covid-19. You work the math.