https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLmVR1vfZrU Winner and I in full cry :lol: It'll be a $1.50+ after that rendition :lol:
Printable View
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLmVR1vfZrU Winner and I in full cry :lol: It'll be a $1.50+ after that rendition :lol:
That was dreadful...…………………………………..lol.
Full moon, full cry now https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esjec0JWEXU :lol:
Seriously...I had a good think about this one overnight. I see about 11 cps underlying for FY19. At $1.23 that puts OCA on a current year PE of just 11.2. Long term I just think you can't go wrong buying a top reputation healthcare provider on those fundamental's. As I said last week I am very impressed with Earl Gasparich as CEO. Demographics provide strong tailwinds for this company.
Disc: Done a Couta1 now in terms of the size of my stake and Beaglized him in the process :lol:
$1.23 - great stuff
Arvida going from cheap, to stupidly cheap
OCA have had a bit of SP surge recently. I already have a small holding (4% of my share portfolio) in OCA, a larger holding in SUM but nothing invested in ARV. I would like to invest more in one of ARV or OCA but cannot decide between the two. My current preference is to buy a similar size holding in ARV as my holding in OCA.
From ANZ secs:
ARV sp 1.35 nta 1.23 div yield 3.7% p/e 8.76
OCA sp 1.22 nta 0.88 div yield 3.2% p/e 9.6 (Oops it’s already gone up another cent!)
Is ARV now better value than OCA. Or has OCA got better growth prospects?
* I would be a long term investor (at least 5+yrs)
Underlying profit of ARV to 31/3/18 $33m on 413.9m shares gives 7.97 cps. At $1.35 that puts them on a historical underlying PE of 16.94, similar to SUM who have a vastly longer track record of underlying profit growth.
OCA based on underlying EPS of 8.5 cps from memory even at $1.23 are trading on a historical underlying PE of 14.48.
We know its all about forward PE and I am expecting a very substantial lift in underlying EPS for OCA this year. Long term the churn rate on the care suite model is more than double that of apartments or independent living units so I am expecting long term outperformance in this sector from OCA.
T.J. will tell you ARV are very cheap but I for one am not convinced and see SUM as better value and OCA as much better value and both having at least as good or better growth prospects. SUM's strength is in its independent living model which forms the dominant part of its business.
OCA are at the other end of the spectrum focusing on late stage care. I think the two are very good complimentary holdings.
Thanks Beagle for your reply. I have only had exeperience of OCA (via family member) and have seen them developing their model over the years ...TJ and yourself are the yin-yang of ARV commentators!
Hi Team,
Does anyone have a Buy / Sell screenshot for OCA that they could put up?
Thanks for this, some big selling at 1.23, not much after that!
You are right with all your numbers - however FY18 is now the past, and FY19 will likely show ARV being a fair chunk cheaper than OCA, and possibly even sum others... It is interesting that some brokers are expecting negative EPS for OCA this year... but I am sure we will now both* agree at $1 OCA was too cheap, even with flat FY19 EPS.
We won't bother looking at other ratios as ARV is without doubt cheapest there, eg dividend yeild, price/book etc
*I say both with a * as just a year and a half ago prior to OCA listing at 79c it wasn't the both of us saying OCA was a bargain... it was just me
I bought OCA at 82 cents after the IPO price settled and initial risk of the float and what might happen to the price thereafter had dissipated. One could argue on a risk adjusted basis this was a more optimal risk reward strategy than investing in the IPO itself at 79 cents. Regarding one broker I won't name who holds a negative view, even a broken clock is right twice a day but more often than not, its hopelessly inaccurate ! I don't pretend to have done any major analysis on ARV...for my money there's SUM companies with a reputation that's been earned over a long period of time based on consistent strong growth trading on a very similar multiple so that's good enough for me. Can't be everywhere in this market but good luck to you with ARV. I did have a look and formed the opinion that yield was okay but it was only a modest growth opportunity.