Nope not me but I know who.;)
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Here's is a rather pointless post other than to fill a bit of time while the company is actually building units and growing out there on this beautiful day. So completely off fundamental stuff which most of us (if not all) agree is superb and why we actually own a piece of this company.
Here goes...The last weeks trading pattern has me intrigued. During this time the buyers are lining in up in average parcels of about $10-15K but the sellers are in much larger average chunks of about $50k each. Here's what I mean, right now 16 buyers are lined up at $1.21 for a total of $130k whereas there are only 3 sellers that total $215 k. This has been happening for a week or so. Plus whenever the selling volume start to thin out the shares left for sale then another large $50k chunk gets dumped on and put out for sale.
Contrary to Couta`s knowledge of a private buyer accumulating it looks to me like a heavyweight is unloading. From my perspective its good news. That is, despite the huge daily share sales there seems loads of "little " buyers hungrily gobbling them up and they are more dominant than the seller. Ultimately the seller will exhaust himself supplying the many buyers then they will drive up the share price to entice more sellers and therefore up to its next temporary plateau.
Free advice to the seller.... "why don't you raise your price a bit."
They are building a brand new apartment complex in Browns Bay, right across the road from the beach. Im a bit young yet but I would love to live there.
https://www.oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/the-sands-care
Maverick - Some institutions probably can't help themselves taking a quick ~ 11% profit from the recent placement. Those that took part in the placement for a quick buck will run out of shares in due course...none of this worries a long term investor.
Out and about today, (gosh Percy is right and one needs to get away from the market to get things into proper focus sometimes), I got to thinking about the NTA of $1.04 as at balance date as per the companies analyst presentation, see here http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...282/283328.pdf and accrued earnings since balance date gets you somewhere close to $1.10 NTA.
I then got to thinking about all the intellectual property of the company I was referring to at post #2022, their stellar clinical care reputation earned over many many years and the value of all their resource consents in advance including more obtained since balance date and then the value of the earnings power of their business model with the much quicker churn of units compared to their peers and how much more defensive this is being needs based than peer companies that are selling lots of units based on lifestyle. For all that you're paying only about 10% above NTA so next to nothing for all that intellectual property compared to say RYM at $13.40 where the vast majority of the share price is IP ! (NTA only $3.83). SUM is trading at slightly more than double its NTA.
I then reflected on not only how realistically priced OCA is on a NTA basis, also a fundamental basis compared to its peer group with forward PE so cheap and the technical analysis looks so beautiful too and then finally there's also the dividend yield being the best in the sector...I think I've just about talked myself into doing a Couta1 and going all in lol
P.S. I still hold SUM.
Go hard or go home, isn't that the mantra Couta1...Isn't it funny how your mates rub off on you a bit :)
I see where you are coming from Beagle. Good boy.
Always tempting to go all in... have burnt myself a few times doing this... then also made a good decision with a very heavy handed placement in another share... sold half. Smiles all round there... grateful for that.
You won't know till you go.
I still see this sector as having a very good long term potential and certainly has heaps of room for growth.
These meetings sound fun .....but is this love affair with Oceania mass hysteria / running with the mob / must join the party stuff or is there any real reason why you can’t have too much
One of your recent get togethers it seemed A2 had you all so excited ....hmmm
Absolutely it is Winner. Called group bias, but only because the fundamentals stack up when compared to the alternatives, and when Beagle provides a numbers analysis that reinforces those gut feelings of where a company is headed - well - Of course a little craft beer helps! We need your input at the next meeting bud.
A really important question Winner, and your point was raised at the "meeting". Are we talking this up to a blinded frenzy ? We discussed other companies of course and the banter was pro`s and con`s with them all but with OCA no one could actually come up with a fair "Con". Oversupply and government intervention were considered but they didn't stack up.
All those present were free thinking individuals way past the "hand waving, hallelujah , timeshare" bunch. I don`t think anyone there "runs with the mob" or is under the influence of "mass hysteria."
We all know there are things we don't know. So I'm sure we are all ears for contrary opinions.
Yes I have turned up the Beagle nose forward sensor to maximum intensity looking for risks and there are some which I'll unpack shortly but all business's have challenges and the FA with a forward PE of about 12, very cheap for this sector and the market overall, TA also looks very attractive, leadership looks top notch and we all know the strong demographic tailwinds.
Against that is a modest chance of Govt policy change and HR issues but all business's have challenges recruiting the right staff at an affordable pay rate.
Earl Gasparich told me they have room within their annual Govt funding allocation to increase the pay for nurses to reduce the drift towards the public sector caused by the recent settlement nurses achieved with the DHB. The gap has been as high as $6 per hour...they will close that gap as best they can in the meantime and it will be closed completely with the next annual review of govt funding.
It is noted that the Sands in Browns Bay is scheduled for completion in May 2019, also OCA's balance date so any delay in completion will have a considerable effect on FY19 eps but will flow straight into Fy20's result. Worth noting however that the company has a very good track record of delivering new facilities on time and on budget.
Meanwhile Forest astutely noted at the ST meeting that many of those 272 units to be completed this year are high value units and if they make 35% development margin on those...eps could be interesting seeing as they only did about 130 units last year.
You can't have too many :D
It must be true. The dogs are barking it!Quote:
You can't have too many
Seriously, OCA has all the attributes of an excellent investment - but some of the boosting is starting to get close to the pump!
We just need to be sure that we understand the fact that exposure to property is a big factor in this sector , and property is theoretically in a huge bubble in this country
Property is also a big factor in a lot of other listed securities so its worthwhile to keep reminding ourselves how much our entire portfolios are exposed to property. Debt securities included
I have VHP for instance. Property.
And then theres Turners owning property as well. CMO as well. How far does ones exposure to property really go??
True true. BUT the point of difference of this company is it has a high focus on the late care stage.
Two things about this is that if dad needs the last 2-3 years of his life to be intensively looked after then the family are hardily going to "time" his entry depending on his fallen property value (other wise you`re looking after him). The other thing is that he will have to come up with say 1/4 of a million for a care suite/bed rather than 1 million for a villa. Surely that's pretty achievable even in a downward property cycle.
Just saying that the very real property risk is going to treat OCA better than others.
Much more defensive, I couldn't agree more Mav.