Yea I believe some do and some don't, guess though when the property market peaks those profits on resales wont be as good as has been.
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Vaygor1 has had a lot of good stuff to say about this which explained why throughout the GFC RYM's profits increased every year.
Perhaps PM him and he might be so kind as to direct you to his post on RYM about the subject. I don't have any concerns. I view any pullback on SUM as a buying opportunity.
Forward PE of around 16.5 based on underlying EPS (my estimate of 32 cps for 2017) for a stock of this caliber is compelling value in my carefully considered view.
Based on SUM's fundamentals and growth the only reason I see to invest in any other stock in this sector is diversification but I am fine with a few MET and a 14.7% portfolio position in SUM, enough for me so won't be investing in this new float.
I have applied for Oceania, after what I admit was a little less research than I like i think there is upside potential in this one.
House prices fell 2008/09 ......RYM NPBT fell as well (and underlying profit hardly moved)
It was only a blip in the long term trend ....over time house prices always go up they say .... and for the foreseeable future RYM et all will continue to build new units and resell the ones of the dearly departed
Sometimes I think punters think too much and complicate things so much they don't see the big picture
We agree 100% that the greatest global financial crisis since the great depression of 1929 -1934 only caused a temporary blip in the long term trend. SUM's the long term situation up very well I believe :)
Edit - I think the main point Vaygor1 (without wanting to put words in my friends mouth so please feel free to correct me if I'm wrong Vaygor1), was making was that on average old folks stay in their units 7-10 years so when resold the average unit has 7-10 years worth of capital gains built into it so any temporary dip in the property market is ironed out and eliminated through the average price gain over the average term. In addition, a dip in the market gives a good company like RYM or SUM an opportunity to acquire future development sites a lot cheaper than would otherwise be the case as you often find a disproportionate drop in bare land development site prices compared to the more moderate drop in individual houses. You could therefore legitimately make the case that the occasional correction is actually beneficial to highly skilled operators and developers because they can get new sites at much cheaper prices therefore boosting future development margins :)
Any news anyone on the deal, pricing etc ? Was expecting an offer from my broker today
we've closed our book, and our bid has been placed.
not expecting much else to happen today the offer document says
The Final Price is expected to beannounced and posted on www.shareoffer.co.nz/oceaniahealthcare on or about 12 April 2017
I thought it was curious timing of Infratil to dump their MET stake in the middle of this IPO process. One would have thought they'd get more for it at a time when the market wasn't being asked for ~ $200m already by a capital raise in this sector.
Would have thought we would have heard something by now... Broker Firm offer opens first thing tomorrow...
My Broker(craigs) said this arvo but no contact atp.
I wonder if IFT brought it.??
Most probably.
I don't think IFT selling their MET holding ,means they are finished with the retirement sector in NZ.In fact, I think they will end up being big investors in this sector.How they do that will be interesting.
Yet I think Couta1's post #115 is how I see the best way to invest in this sector,for the reason he gave.
Thanks. Thats why i asked you why ARV has outperformed all others with its high predominant care model?.
With all the land and a target reduction from 67 to 44% care and with Ryman currently 56% care there looks to be ample growth there for Oceania to perform well against the others. 82c would be a pretty int entry point imo but hey it might do an ARV and get even cheaper after listing before performing; good entry then eh?
Trader Jackson quote.
In Recent Forsyth report on the retirement sector:
Needs Based (Being serviced apartments and care beds as a % of total portfolio) is a potential indicator as to how reliant on government funding a village is:
Arvida: 74%
Metlifecare: 18%
Oceania: 72%
Ryman: 56%
Summerset 32%
Trader Jackson quote."To give you an idea of how ARV and Oceania have (or likely to) change a few years after listing:
Arvida:
Prospectus (December 2014 - 17 villages):
Care Beds: 952
Retirement Units: 812 ('high margin' Independent living apartments: 46%)
54% / 46% split
1764 Total
March 2017 - 26 Villages
Care Beds: 1461
Retirement Units: 1285 ('high margin' Independent living apartments: 54%)
53% / 47% split
2746 Total
March 2019 Forsyth Forecast - 26 Villages
Care Beds: 1511
Retirement Units: 1517
50% / 50% split
3028 total
Oceania:
Prospectus (March 2017):
Care Beds: 2638
Care Suites/Care Studios: 241 ('high margin' care beds)
Retirement Units: 1071 ('high margin' Independent living apartments: 100% - I think)
67% / 6% / 27% split
3950 total
March 2019: (Total Consented or Under Construction)
Care Beds: 2284
Care Suites/Care Studios: 580 ('high margin' care beds)
Retirement Units: 1669 ('high margin' Independent living apartments: 100% - I think)
50% / 13% / 37% split
4533 total
March 2021?: (Total Consented, Under Construction and in Planning and Consenting phase)
Care Beds: 2284
Care Suites/Care Studios: 877 ('high margin' care beds)
Retirement Units: 2050 ('high margin' Independent living apartments: 100% - I think)
44% / 17% / 39% split
5211 total"