"Underlying NPAT was $58.5m which included realised gains on sales/resales of $59.3m."
Without the sales and resales there would have been nothing left. The 2022/23 FY was a tough time for housing and property in general
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"Underlying NPAT was $58.5m which included realised gains on sales/resales of $59.3m."
Without the sales and resales there would have been nothing left. The 2022/23 FY was a tough time for housing and property in general
Finally, the realisation is dawning that it's all about sales sales sales, and yes, H2 is a big disappointment, but overall +20% is encouraging. And I don't care about the excuses, there are RV's that are proving that the 'market' is there for RV sales, it's just that OCA aren't getting their share of it lately. And they need it, with such a large backlog of saleable property and a development pipeline that will just add to the backlog.
Something has to change, not just the CEO. The Board has a few very large investor shareholders, surely they must be wondering when the strategy will turn into ROI on their investment? None of the RV's pay even barely respectable ROI (dividends), let alone capital growth. All of them need to realise the market has changed and growth at all costs to investors, is not sustainable anymore. It's time for payback. And it's easy, relatively, to make that happen. The levers to produce investor/owner/shareholder returns are very simple to implement, albeit they take some time to take effect.
What this company doesn't seem to get, and maybe the whole sector doesn't get yet, is who they're working for. It's it's the owners that they work for, the shareholders, and it's not at all unreasonable IMO to expect a decent ROI, EPS, which none of them provide, none of them.
Well there are discounted sales & sales.
With the amount of time & capital used for each build, you want to ensure you are getting a reasonable return, especially seeing they probably are losing money operationally, something that cannot continue, despite what SailorBoy used espouse.
If OCA'S sales compared to competitors are down but margins higher I wouldn't have such a problem, as they still have the units to sell.
If they have reduced margins the same or more than others, then I have a problem.
UPDATE FROM WARRIORS (Price Sensitive)
The Warriors are pleased to report that after seven games into the season they have had 4 wins and a draw which is about on par with 5 wins at same time last season
The Warriors are also pleased with the increased excitement from fans since they embraced the UP THE WAHS chant
The Warriors continue to build the strength of the team and will continue to do so through 2025
The Warriors welcomed Roger Tuivasa-Sheck to the team at beginning of the season. Coach Andrew Webster said ‘We are delighted to welcome Roger back to the team. He bring a wealth of experience and dynamism to the team leadership’
The Warriors will provide another update late May
Where can I buy shares in these up and coming Warriors? I looked up under the WAH ticker on the NZX and couldn't find it? Someone said to me, no it isn't under that ticker - you have to look under OCA. I wasn't sure what that acronym might stand for: 'Other Capable Athletes'? As an ESG investor I may have had access to them filtered out by my access bot. I don't think Sam Stubbs from Simplicity would tolerate an investment in the Warriors, as they black list stuff connected to the military.
Did a bit of a news search and found that OCA has a head coach called 'Brent'. Is Brent a particularly violent man?
SNOOPY
Pretty bang on with the post index selldown share price action - sp actually went as high as 66c for a couple of days and back towards 59c after the update.
Will find out what my broker contact says about the update and likely sp action before the results in May when they return from holiday next week.
At this stage, given the disappointing new sales update, OCA better not report reduced sales value and reduced margins in the results!
Those who took up the CR in 2021 at $1.30 must be wondering if they should be buying more at the current level to 'average' down? :scared:
This dog is sick as
Yes, the question becomes whether to
A, finish up development and put all future cash inflow from new occupational right agreements into stocks and or bonds (Safest option, over 8 years investors today are looking probably at a 30%+ CAGR)
B, continue full steam ahead with development, under the assumption growing demand will allow for both the existing stock and newly developed stock to be sold down (This option possibly has the best outcome for investors, but is built on the assumption that stock doesn't just keep growing)
C, some combination of the both.
That's how I see it anyway, I prefer option C.
You seem to be forgetting something.
Even if they finished their current units in development, sold them and then ceased all further developments the funds wouldn't cover the outstanding debt, in fact I would say it's $200M short.
They are then relying on the DMF from resales which my increase to around $50M a year.
But then they are operating at a small loss.
So where is the pool of funds to start investing?
They need to start operating at a profit.
Man, everyone buying now is going to at least double their money no matter what.
My computer told me so.
Stock Prediction Under Different Scenarios: Oceania Healthcare Limited (OCA.NZ)
Scenario-Based Stock Price Prediction for OCA.NZ:
Current Market Context:
Oceania Healthcare Limited (Ticker: OCA.NZ) operates in the healthcare and retirement village sectors in New Zealand, which are influenced by demographics, government policy, and economic conditions. Let's explore how various scenarios could impact OCA.NZ's stock price.
Scenarios Considered:
1. Aging Population
- Assumption: Continued growth in the elderly population increases demand for retirement village units and aged care services.
- Impact on OCA.NZ: Positive, as an aging demographic directly benefits Oceania Healthcare’s core business model.
2. Changes in Government Healthcare Funding:
- Assumption: The New Zealand government alters funding or policies related to elder care and retirement services.
- Impact on OCA.NZ: Variable; increased funding would be positive, while cuts or restrictive policies could pose challenges.
3. Economic Recovery Post-COVID-19:
- Assumption: New Zealand's economy recovers steadily from the COVID-19 downturn, improving overall consumer confidence and spending capacity.
- Impact on OCA.NZ: Positive, as economic uplift generally increases disposable income and the ability for older citizens to invest in retirement living options.
4. Increased Competition in Healthcare Sector:
- Assumption: More competitors emerge in the retirement and aged care sector, offering new technologies or competitive pricing.
- Impact on OCA.NZ: Negative in the short-term due to price pressures and market share dilution, but could be positive if it spurs innovation within Oceania Healthcare.
Predicted Stock Price Range Under Each Scenario:
- Aging Population Scenario: Potential price range of NZ$1.40 - NZ$1.60.
- Changes in Government Healthcare Funding Scenario: Potential price range of NZ$1.20 - NZ$1.50 depending on the nature of policy changes.
- Economic Recovery Post-COVID-19 Scenario: Potential price range of NZ$1.30 - NZ$1.50.
- Increased Competition in Healthcare Sector Scenario: Potential price range of NZ$1.00 - NZ$1.20.
These predictions consider how different macroeconomic, demographic, and competitive scenarios might impact Oceania Healthcare's stock price. However, the actual future prices will be influenced by specific developments and broader market dynamics at the time.
Conclusion:
Investors should use these scenario analyses to inform their investment decisions, alongside keeping abreast of New Zealand's economic indicators, healthcare policies, and competitive landscape changes in the healthcare sector. Maintaining a diversified portfolio and staying updated with sector-specific news will help mitigate risks associated with investments in OCA.NZ.
Co Pilot version
Attachment 15047
Few companies (HLG, BGP and STU come to mind) operate with zero debt - in fact, a prudent level of debt optimizes shareholders' returns by lowering the cost of capital.
So it is unrealistic to expect OCA to operate with zero debt and as a property development and investment company, it shouldn't.
The issue for OCA is what should be an appropriate and prudent level of debt.
If you look at OCA's transformative strategy, I believe it has been poorly executed - case in point, I believe that The Helier was a bridge too far for OCA which moved into the super-premium RV market without proper appraisal of how a property downturn would impact on its financials. It used debt to outbid and purchase very expensive land in Kohimarama and a very costly development which is now sapping cash flow and incurring interest costs with diminishing returns.
I for one don't think OCA's debt is that high. $620m on $2.7 billion of assets is pretty low, so long as they are operating within their debt covenants then there is nothing to worry about. I think that they have that under control.
It's worth noting just how low their interest rates for that debt is as well.
I think it'd be smart to wait until the annual report is released before discussing The Helier any further... Don't want to end up with egg on your face again like last year with you confidently predicting a capital raise.