Not a holder here, but if its on Lumi, then your CSN no is username and your post code is password.
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"Despite the disruption to these sites as redevelopment took place, our aged care earnings are accordingly now at a point of “inflection” and will increase going forward as we continue to execute our strategy."
"sales activity and have recorded strong sales levels through June, July and August"
Didn't need to use the word 'strong'. Has been consistent with the use of 'point of inflection'. Without fully understanding the numbers, this compassionate needs based business is about to soar.
Just running my Beagle nose for a feed over this again...Quote:
Once the restrictions on sales eased in Alert Level Two, we recommenced sales activity and have
recorded strong sales levels through June, July and August – 26% higher than the same months last
year. We have seen particularly good levels of sales at both Meadowbank and The Sands over the last
few months. We have now sold 54 independent living apartments and 29 care suites at The Sands (with
a further 12 care suites occupied by residents paying a premium accommodation charge). At
Meadowbank, we have now sold 34 of the 64 independent living apartments in Stage Four and seven of
the 26 independent living apartments in Stage Five, as well as 38 care suites (with a further three care
suites occupied by residents paying a premium accommodation charge).
Many new residents who have submitted ORA applications since lockdown have commented to us about
how the lockdown period gave them an opportunity to reflect on their wellbeing and security, with the
benefits of retirement villages – including stronger communities, security and peace of mind - being more
prevalent over this period.
I think its very important to note that these are the most expensive units within OCA's portfolio of properties and that the valuers have discounted values down a record 27% back In April because of what they expected would be a downturn, which as we all know has not eventuated, in fact we're in boom times.
Reading between the lines we're on for a really cracker year, what say you Maverick ? I think I might have to have another look at my forecasts for FY21...$57m underlying is looking quite conservative even for 10 months operations to 31 March 2020.
Market seems unimpressed so far.
I'm happy to continue to sit on my slightly over sized holding and enjoy the modest dividend.
My average is now 98.2. So doing better than the bank and a real chance of growing my capital over the next 2-4 years.
Off to the workshop now...look forward to your later commentary.
Cheers
RTM
Only 10 units and 3 care suites left at the Sands. Maverick must be impressed with that. Interest rates headed to zero and this gives about 4.7% plus the strong prospect of capital growth in the value of the shares. Hmmm...have I got enough ?
2:50pm 'meeting closed' online, got kicked out and can't rejoin. Anyone else?
My question seemed to have been overlooked. While acknowledging a longer-term strategy at play, I cheekily asked what they attribute the absence of share price appreciation to, when the rest of the industry has been performing so well. I noted that this was an area of frustration for some shareholders. As I wrote the question, OCA was at $1.03 (exactly where we were 12 months ago to the cent), meanwhile RYM (7%), ARV (15%), SUM (33.5) and MET (34%) have all made attractive gains in that same timeframe. I provided those numbers as a comparison. There was either a technical glitch that prevented them from receiving my question, or my question was 'moderated'. Maybe we're not meant to ask that sort of question, but it's a genuine concern for many of us, and I can't help but feel slightly ignored.
Jeez all super duper ....what possibly could go wrong?
That's the problem I find repeatedly with online meetings and hard questions which is why I have a strong dislike for them. They simply ignore the hard questions...in my experience all companies do this regardless of what they say otherwise. The truth is the market needs to see some evidence that their strategy is working.
I think the market is going to get a large dose of that evidence when they report their half year results in late January 2021 and the present share price is a real opportunity but may not do much until closer to the report date so that leads us to consider what other support might be forthcoming before then ?
Where are the funds going to go when the takeover of MET is settled in late October ?
What about the billions coming up on term deposit maturity where people are being offered 1% to reinvest ?
Wonder how long it will take Maverick to rework his model ? Why wait...I got the dog bone for being closest to the mark for FY20 underlying profit...so wait for it folks...drum roll please.... after applying my super sniffer long range food sensing nose to this I get underlying profit for the six months ended 30/11/20 of ~ $35m up 46% on the previous corresponding period and I am picking ~ $25m for the 4 months ended 31/03/21 for a ten month total of $60m (annualized $72m or 11.5 cps).
Even applying a no growth (because the market will still be a doubting Thomas), PE of 11.5 to this my target share price is thus 11.5 cps x 11.5 = $1.32 by mid 2021.
The risk to this with negative interest rates is to the upside in my opinion as the market starts to wake up.
That annualised $72m forF21 is still quite a way short of $85m which Earl ‘promised’ for F20 a couple of years ago (his bonus depended on that but no doubt they’ve changed the bonus scheme now)
Always gunna be?
Rome wasn't built in a day ;)
Mr Beagle what are you top 5 stocks that pay a dividend on the NZX?
I have assumed OCA, GNE and HGH
I`ll take your bait, Beagle.
My thoughts on the ASM was it was just as expected, there were definitely highlights but anyone serious about this sector already would have anticipate them such as;
-Sales up 26% on the PCP 3 months.
-Sales prices NOT reducing despite the CBRE reduced expectations 4 months ago.
-”Sands” sales are very strong and ahead of where they need to be.
-”Meadow bank” sales on track but not as strong as “Sands”. (there were actually 49 apartment deliveries of stage 4 . Earl`s number of 64 is incorrect so the fact they have only sold 34 so far is as per expectations)
One factor which has exceeded my own anticipation is how well the care suits are selling. They are selling 50% faster than they need to in order to replenish every 2.5 years.
Surely that was you Winner at Q & A time asking why “the story” isn't being told better? I liked Earl`s answer that we have passed the point of inflection, 3 new large developments are now nearing maturity and basically the profits will start growing. Imo that is really the only thing that people will actually believe that this complicated story is actually working. By the way folks that will happen in a VERY solid way next report- late January 2021.
Beagle, my underlying profit expectation this year is a bit loose. There is a large “one off” profit to estimate for the sales deferred from last FY to this FY because of covid sales delays. I'm expecting about a $6m “one off” straight on the bottom line for this. Basically profit differed from last FY because of Covid.
So I'm expecting an underlying profit (annualised) of about 57-60m FY2021 PLUS this $6m one off. I just cannot see for the life of me how a huge jump in profit cannot happen (without another massive disruptive event). We know enough history and numbers now to just add it all up with very few assumptions left.
As far as the share price appreciation goes , I'm very surprised with so much mounting evidence of the model's success that this company hasn't been seriously rerated by now. I do concede one does still need to dig a little bit still to see it but surely analysts out there must have bothered by now. With 3 years of history behind it, in my view, it has now been substantially de risked. Pretty soon it will be so clear that a drunk monkey will see “the story”.
There were no surprises from the meeting and nor should there be. OCA has a clear plan and executes it in a very pragmatic way. It was basically all good news and I see it as only a short time now before the market finally agrees.
"Pretty soon it will be so clear that a drunk monkey will see the story". :lol: Surely that's the quote of the day :lol:
Disc: I topped up some more today because I think many market participants are drunk monkey's that need things handed to them on a silver platter before they can understand. Only 4 months to go until that happens and we are likely to see significant gains in my opinion. Patient puppies should be fed very well :t_up:
I presume by you, you mean your ? The stocks I am holding for gross yield inclusive of imputation credits are HLG (~ 11%) HGH ( ~ 8%) GNE ( ~ 8%), WHS ( ~ 11% ), and ARG, (net PIE yield 4.8%, ~ 7% for gross for 33% taxpayers).
I'm mostly holding OCA for capital growth but the ~ 5% expected yield is now high for where interest rates are so people are being paid handsomely to enjoy the growth in the years ahead, (which is not the case with MET, SUM or RYM where average yield is less than half that).
I'm also holding BRM (8% net yield) and KFLWF, Kingfish warrants that I will convert to shares in March 2021 to earn 8% net.
I'm not holding any Marlin shares or warrants at this point as I feel both are overpriced for the NTA and I expect extreme volatility in the US markets leading into the election and that's right about where the Marlin warrants need to be exercised.
PAZ on the unlisted market is very exciting.
The only thing that could under cut MR M's model of profit is employment costs.
"extreme volatility in the US markets leading into the election "
and well after as it goes to the highest court and Trump refuses to move .. barricades himself inside.
Lot of discussion re moral / ethical behaviour of company / directors accepting government support when they make big profits
So new Oceania finance guy working hard to get heaps of corporate welfare ...hmm
We as shareholders should be pleased ...got to get every penny we can, from wherever.
A business model dependent on the whims of govt policy?
Crikey there was a lot of postings by you and Beagle yesterday....... did something happen!?
Pretty gaverage result IMHO, and I always get a tab concerned when companies decide to change their balance date. Makes YOY comparisons that much more fuzzy. You got to wonder why?
Still a small rare div/yield hold for me, and I won't be rushing out to buy more.
Changing balance date often seen as a red flag and can muddy the waters for a few years ....but in these days of normalisation, covid look through and annualisation etc etc who cares.
At least they not doing the 15 month year and comparing it to a 12 month year trick ....(Comvita tried that trick)