Where are you getting 1.5bill from? Are you thinking of MET?
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From May 20 report
Sorry the copy and paste has jumbled the bal sheet Ive highlighted the 2 amounts about 64k shy of 1.5bill
Consolidated Balance SheetAs at 31 May 2020$NZ000’s Notes May 2020 May 2019AssetsCash and cash equivalents 17,624 22,762Trade and other receivables 5.3 41,630 43,541Investment property 3.1 947,800 881,674Property, plant and equipment 3.2 489,990 442,709Right of use assets 3.4 40,822 -Intangible assets 5.2 10,830 8,668Total assets 1,548,696 1,399,354LiabilitiesTrade and other payables 5.4 34,831 38,565Derivative financial instruments 5.6 10,484 2,443Deferred management fee 3.3 34,344 27,002Refundable occupation right agreements 3.3 535,370 436,481Right of use liabilities 3.4 13,001 -Borrowings 4.4 325,454 270,159Deferred tax liabilities 5.1 - 14,825Total liabilities 953,484 789,475Net assets 595,212 609,879EquityContributed equity 4.1 588,389 580,794Retained deficit (155,907) (110,060)Reserves 162,730 139,145Total equity 595,212 609,879
From Friday:
From yesterday:
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/in...203231231.html
I think its got a ways to run yet. But being my biggest holding 'by a country mile'..... I guess I'm a bit biased. 😂😂😂😂 But I hope I'm right $1.96 Mmmmmmm???? !!!!
Very exciting prospects ahead, I’m also completely biased as it’s my biggest holdings by at least two country miles! Go large or go home I reckon.
Despite beagles reluctance to fess up on his future projections, I think he should. Wouldn’t be the first time he was accused of ramping lol 😂 the hard part will, as usual, be forecasting the property market, the cost of capital and the sales performance.
Good move imo to put out the bond issue, very clever to take advantage of reducing cost of debt. These companies rely on large capital availability, so the less it costs the better.
Personally I think my chart will be useless shortly as all time highs are taken out and this blue sky rerates to new highs, in the medium term $2 is just a step on the long term outlook.
Told you I am biased. 🤩
Those models arnt real world and are static in nature and are data templates. That being said please dont put model up here that show its undervalued...for at least another 2 years...gives everyone who believes it true, time there entry as funds become available.
I've already said what I think its really worth mate, just over $2 :) In my opinion its not going to go there quickly though. Covid sentiment is holding it back, overseas investors are seeing widespread deaths in old folks homes and the placement by Macquarie back in February at $1.20...those shares will be still churning back onto the market especially from disgruntled Australian investors who have seen the carnage in Victoria.
I remain of the view the bond issue will give this a significant shot in the arm, (played out over 5-6 weeks with MET last year with their bond issue), then there's the probable reinvestment of some of the funds from the likely MET takeover going back into this sector, (with settlement subject to the approval vote and high court approval scheduled for the end of October), and then we have what I think will be a stellar first half result in late January 21.
I still think OCA's business model is not understood well by larger institutional players. Once their growth becomes obvious however and with no further overhang from Macquarie this should get rerated up towards the sector average PE.
They just need to show the market their business model transformational program is working...still a bit of skepticism out there I reckon.
FA looks great and so does TA. My biggest investment position too :)
It used to be our biggest holding on the NZX also but now a tiny one.. If MR B is correct there is still time and prehaps thats the beauty of this stock , it wont move until the numbers line up, perfect.
We would have gone US but exchange rates were not in our favour and we thought with trump in charge the US was a gonna...
".those shares will be still churning back onto the market especially from disgruntled Australian investors who have seen the carnage in Victoria"
very insightful... if so a lot more to come when it reaches 1.10 - 1.15.
Its been 7 months now since that Macquarie placement. My gut feel, (and that's all it is), is we're coming towards the end of the disgruntled selling by those that took a stake off Macquarie. Melbourne starting to improve from its Covid problems quite a bit too. Tick tock mate, I wouldn't leave it too long if I was you.
"Tick tock mate" unfortunately we have to wait since we did not unload all positions in jan when we started tracking the virus from Hong Kong. We have another trade starting soon covering exchange rates and this will tie us up for a while. OCA this time may be one we miss except for a small position, and it wont be the last we miss.
I accumulated more this morning. I think they are very conservative.
At first glance the standout for me is the way they have highlighted the strongly growing yield in the years ahead. Investors are going to be increasingly well paid as they enjoy ongoing strong growth in the years ahead. I'll share some more thoughts when I've digested the full report.
Righto, finally had a proper look at this one...struggled to see the wood through the trees, have reformatted below. You're right though, in my small mindedness, I was thinking NTA, not actual assets, so there is merit in what you are saying, such is the beauty of leverage...when it works in your favour. Quite what the property component of property, plant and equipment is, I don't know (Mav or Beagle probably know that off the top of their heads), but certainly the next results should see a nice bump up off the back of revaluations.
Consolidated Balance Sheet
As at 31 May 2020
$NZ000’s Notes May 2020 May 2019
Assets
Cash and cash equivalents 17,624 22,762
Trade and other receivables 5.3 41,630 43,541
Investment property 3.1 947,800 881,674
Property, plant and equipment 3.2 489,990 442,709
Right of use assets 3.4 40,822 -Intangible assets 5.2 10,830 8,668
Total assets 1,548,696 1,399,354
Liabilities
Trade and other payables 5.4 34,831 38,565
Derivative financial instruments 5.6 10,484 2,443
Deferred management fee 3.3 34,344 27,002
Refundable occupation right agreements 3.3 535,370 436,481
Right of use liabilities 3.4 13,001 -Borrowings 4.4 325,454 270,159
Deferred tax liabilities 5.1 - 14,825
Total liabilities 953,484 789,475
Net assets 595,212 609,879
EquityContributed equity 4.1 588,389 580,794
Retained deficit (155,907) (110,060)
Reserves 162,730 139,145
Total equity 595,212 609,879
looking good looking good
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...710/326865.pdf
I believe CBRE valuation assumptions for their values taken as at 30 April 2020 were extremely conservative, (taken in the middle of the Covid crisis lockdown) and have proved to be grossly inaccurate. Their NAV at that time was $1.10 and I believe this figure materially misstates the likely NAV as at the current date. I believe subsequent real estate data and highly profitable trading since then is likely to mean the NAV is currently ~ $1.20 perhaps even more and I note all other sector companies (excluding MET) are trading at a substantial premium to their asset backing.
I also note OCA has the highest development margins in the industry and has a focus on very high value apartments in the next few years, has the highest dividend yield, the cheapest forward PE and has an excellent outlook for earnings and dividend growth in the years ahead.
My #1 investment position.
Just a wee note of caution there Beagle, while they currently have the highest margin they have been clear that the 30%+ new sales margin they have been achieving has all been Auckland based. As they sell down this year and the next, a good portion will be in Nelson and Christchurch where they are expecting only a 15% margin (so an average overall of about 25% looking ahead)
While I use the numbers they provide I`ve got a sneaky feeling with property NZ wide going like it is at the moment they will surprise us to the upside.
but as far as the other positives you point out....100% agree.
Thanks Mav. That research highlights the high value of apartment developments over the next 2-3 years though so I am taking a medium / long term outlook.
Iceman tells me Nelson real estate has been going gangbusters...and why not, its such a beautiful part of the country.
Thanks Cyclical for reformatting that balance sheet.
If we get residential property inflation of 10 % say by 31.12.21 then I am surmising we will get around a 0.25 lift in NTA.
I have spoken to someone involved in the retirement Village industry who said as older residential property owners home values inflate they are willing to pay more for a villa or apartment in a village. I assume there isn't such a direct correlation with care beds.
I posted this link the other day but it was only commented on by one person.
I don't really understand all the jargon (except the then 45% discount and $1.96 valuation ;)) so thought I would re-post it for any other comments.
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-undervaluing-oceania-healthcare-limited-203231231.html
Has the market been reading the remarks here of Mr B and that expert on OCA Mav and we are not going to get our chance in 12 to 24 months time to load up.
LTA - long term anticipation has arrived?
glad we got a few, but far to little for the tide of money coming soon from term deposits prehaps.. ARG climbing , GMT ect. Its all property after all.
a 2 to 3 dollars stock in 5 years time? or it that very conservative after all the GFC left a 5 year gap world wide for markets to get back on there feet. I cant remember the global numbers after all i thought apart from a war that we had had our once in a 50 year global melt down... apparently not!
If the person known as MAV is correct on this stock prehaps the board should invite that shareholder all expenses paid to the AGM each year as the share price reflects his professional presentations on this forum promotes the stock better than the board.