At first glance seems like a brilliant result. Should head to $1.75 by 4.30 pm today.
Printable View
At first glance seems like a brilliant result. Should head to $1.75 by 4.30 pm today.
wow only up 2.5% on the open? Tough crowd - grows underlying EPS by 25% year on year, share price goes down 13% year on year... and all that happens on the open is a minuscule 2.5% bump
Underlying Earnings excluding Arena 58.6m (up 13%) - but at the capital raise they indicated 67.0 was the number
Bit short eh
No wonder share price is where it is ... their updates indicated this
At least Arena did better than expected
Flow on to OCA up a couple of cents. OCA has potential.
Looks like Arena acquisition really was eps accretive. Never mind the weighted average number of shares creativity to me this is on 16 times underlying earnings which is expensive in a very rapidly falling real estate market considering their very modest average earnings growth since being listed. But hey, at least they have grown underlying earnings over the years unlike the flea ridden mutt that is OCA ! They have a moderate exposure to care, too much for my liking.
Current sector exposure for me is nil.
Least worst prospects to most worst in my view is:-
SUM
ARV
RYM
OCA
Good sector to avoid for the foreseeable future.
In the presentation re acquisition Arena and cap raise on the slide talking about it be 'highly eps accretive' there was this footnote "Based on current consensus covering analyst estimates of FY22 Underlying Profit of $67m"
To me that said they were comfortable with $67m
Yep 13% increase pretty solid .....but short of what they implied (and they never came up with another number)
Arena not really eps accretive
Arvida implied/comfortable with 12.4 cents eps for FY22 - they used this as a base for their calculation
With Arena eps is 12.0 cents - not accretive
But who cares - it sounded good at the time and got punters excited to fork out their dosh .... and at the end of the day 12.0 this year is better than 9.6 last year
Suppose you get 12 cps underlying using weighted average number of shares on issue ?
I get $73.5m underlying on 720m shares on issue = 10.2 cps
Next time I hear eps accretive talk I will take it with a grain of salt. You are right to be deeply skeptical of all such salesman's talk.
Funding for aged care continues to materially lag the actual cost of care, ( not profitable ?)
which is resulting in considerable financial pressure for traditional aged
care operations. Acute nurse shortages in the healthcare sector are also
challenging the continued provision of services in some regions.
A hint to that they may need to close some facilities due to nursing shortages ??
and 12.0 is a record, by miles, yet the share price is far from a record.
I would have taken that $67m with a pinch of salt, not a cast iron guarantee from management that $67m will absolutely be achieved no matter what (as I don't think this is what they were saying)... $58.6m was 12.5% behind this pinch of salt number, which isn't too far off in my view, and far less than whats happened to the share price - which has fallen 21.3% (from $2.07 at the time of acquisition to now $1.63)... ie excluding anything to do with the successful Arena acquisition, the share price has still fallen almost twice as much vs the "miss" from a vague number signalled (sort of) in a footnote... tough crowd