EVO - Evolve Education

[noodles]

4th quarter cashflows out today. It is not as strong as it should be.

The prospectus cashflow forecasts are on pg.73
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-ite...E=ASX&N=829761

Compare this to today's announcement
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/234476.pdf

Receipts from Customers: Actual $137200 vs IPO Forecast $137489
- On the face of it, this is pretty much in line. But when you consider the forecast did not include the 15 ECE's purchased during the year, it is a major miss.

Net cash flows from operating activities: Actual $17660 vs IPO Forecast $23095
- A big miss here. There were some acquisition and integration costs of around 2000, but there is still a major shortfall. Interesting that actual tax paid was less than forecast. This implies less profit.

Full year profit next month. Will they miss forecasts?

[Beagle]

4th quarter cashflows out today. It is not as strong as it should be.

The prospectus cashflow forecasts are on pg.73
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-ite...E=ASX&N=829761

Compare this to today's announcement
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/234476.pdf

Receipts from Customers: Actual $137200 vs IPO Forecast $137489
- On the face of it, this is pretty much in line. But when you consider the forecast did not include the 15 ECE's purchased during the year, it is a major miss.

Net cash flows from operating activities: Actual $17660 vs IPO Forecast $23095- A big miss here. There were some acquisition and integration costs of around 2000, but there is still a major shortfall. Interesting that actual tax paid was less than forecast. This implies less profit.

Full year profit next month. Will they miss forecasts?

Good post. One wonders if profitability might be diminished as much as is possible / probable by this indicator whether they're honouring their obligations in terms of continuous disclosure surrounding profitability ?

[Beagle]

anecdotal feedback - I had an interesting discussion with my sister-in-law over coffee yesterday. She works at what was previously an upmarket day care centre in one of Auckland more affluent suburbs which was taken over by Evolve some months back.
I asked her how's things at work and got the following.
Bloody awful.!!...said with a highly discontented frowning look. I took the bait..as you do and asked why ?
Her - The whole atmosphere of the place has changed. We're not allowed to even heat the place properly, (this piqued my interest as I'm aware that according to the world health organisation the minimum temperature for a healthy workplace is 16 degrees Celsius).
Me - What do you mean don't they have a heat pump or two ?
Her - No they have a single electric heater and we're not allowed to run it much.
Me - What has been a typical temperature during the last week inside the centre ?
Her - 11 degrees and if we complain we run a real risk of being fired like my friend was last week. She went on - The kids used to get fresh fruit and decent lunches, now they get cheap rice crackers, (for those that don't know these are the $1 packs of cheap biscuits) and for lunch its mainly pasta and rice.
Me - Because that's the cheapest food they can provide right ?
Her- You got it.
She continued - I wouldn't dare ask for new teacher aids, equipment or toys for the kids...the word has come down, we keep costs to the absolute minimum.
Me - How are parents reacting to this ?
Her - We've had quite a number of parents pull their kids out of the centre in the last few weeks. She continued - I'm really not happy and to make matters worse we don't have quite the ideal number of qualified v unqualified care givers...really they have one too many qualified caregivers for the ideal ratio and I think they're trying to get rid of me and hire an unqualified replacement because its cheaper.
Me - They want to run the leanest legally allowable qualified v unqualified care-giver ratio for the number of kids at the centre to keep costs to the lowest level don't they ?
Her - How did you guess ?
Me - What would happen if you reported the unhealthy environment, (meaning lack of heating), to the authorities ?
Her - I'd be certain to lose my job and get a bad reference so would probably be unable to find another one.
Me - Do the other staff feel the same way ?
Her - Yep.

We then went on and discussed my brothers problems at his workplace....I felt bloody happy to be self employed at the end of that discussion.

Undernourished, cold, discontented kids...is this the future of early childcare in N.Z ?

Me ol mate Norah Barlow...you can really trust her to direct this company in a manner that's in the best interests of our young kids right ??????

Do you really want to invest in a company knowing they're not committed to the very best standards for early childhood education and welfare and that its only for profit. Profit comes before kids welfare...something makes me really uneasy about that.

From June 2015 ^^^^
What with it approaching winter and all and being out that way last evening I thought I'd pop in and see my brother and sister in law last evening after visiting my mum out that way.
After the usual pleasantries I asked her how's things at work.
Much the same she said. Most of the staff that used to work there before Evolve took over have now left.
Why's that I quizzed.
They're sick of the corporate B.S. the place has totally changed its all about profit and not about the kids anymore.
Can you give me some examples I asked.
Sure. Anything that breaks down isn't replaced, for example we had 4 ipad's now only two are working and there's no move to replace them.
Basically we have to keep the kids entertained and educated with less and less resources.
She continued on a Sunday evening at 8.30 as she was gathering up craft resources for the next day.
When it comes to art and craft resources for the kids we do it on an absolute bare minimum basis, often I supply them myself. We now have to do after hours parent events unpaid and if we refuse we're told we're not team players. (I didn't go into what's involved with after hours parent events but I am sure people can imagine there's lots of hard work public relations stuff involved).
I asked how is that not part of your normal work duties ? Good question but Evolve aren't the only ones by any means asking staff to do this sort of thing unpaid.
Speaking of bare minimum's I asked how they were getting on with heating with winter almost upon us.
Oh she said, they're supposed to be installing some new heat pumps. She continued, apparently they're required by law to maintain a minimum basic temperature so they've decided some heat pumps are the most efficient way to achieve that.
I had a quiet chuckle to myself and then asked, so when are they coming ? Apparently soon. Christmas is coming soon too I said, rather cheekily, but she replied that she was pretty confident they'd be installed soon.
Any other changes of any merit...not really she said.

Had plenty of other things to talk about so sorry, it was just a brief discussion about her work... just thought I'd update from last year FWIW

[forest]

Interesting snippets of info Roger, much appreciated.

[macduffy]

Well, that shattered my illusions about the mild weather in the winterless North - he said from a much colder, windier climate far, far away.

[Hectorplains]

Lordy, what is it with Edu stocks?

[percy]

Lordy, what is it with Edu stocks?

You may need to rethink,and think Think.
They are going really well.
Code TNK,asx.

[percy]

EVO up 4 cents or 3.8% today,however TNK was "all go" being up 9.2% or 12cents,after a good presentation.

Disc.I hold TNK.

[Beagle]

4th quarter cashflows out today. It is not as strong as it should be.

The prospectus cashflow forecasts are on pg.73
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-ite...E=ASX&N=829761

Compare this to today's announcement
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/234476.pdf

Receipts from Customers: Actual $137200 vs IPO Forecast $137489
- On the face of it, this is pretty much in line. But when you consider the forecast did not include the 15 ECE's purchased during the year, it is a major miss.

Net cash flows from operating activities: Actual $17660 vs IPO Forecast $23095
- A big miss here. There were some acquisition and integration costs of around 2000, but there is still a major shortfall. Interesting that actual tax paid was less than forecast. This implies less profit.

Full year profit next month. Will they miss forecasts?

Nicely flagged and down she goes again to the IPO level with few buyers with any interest at the close. Again not a ringing endorsement of the business model and with a wider proliferation of early childhood centres and a more fragmented approach with something of an excess supply from what I hear, one wonders if this sector is worth bothering with at all ? Thought I'd ring my sister in law for fun...yes you guessed it, on Auckland's coldest day so far this year no sign of those promised heat pumps, what a surprise. I suppose if you were being generous one might accept the view that normalised profit excluding acquisition costs of new centres did marginally exceed the IPO prospectus forecast. Mr market is underwhelmed and so am I.

[tim23]

Have just added this stock to my portfolio anyone else holding/following?