EVO - Evolve Education

[Balance]

Waterman had 75% of Provincial so they doing OK this year eh Balance

As such take the Waterman 'premium' off and a more realistic value was $100m

But Canadians aren't as thick as small NZ investors

Good one, W69!

Probably not however given the Canadians have bought some assets really well in NZ and seem to know our country well?

Can recall them buying Fletcher Forests at rock bottom prices all those years ago.

[Balance]

Anyway, sounds like Busy Bees is on an acquisition path :

Having acquired Foundation Early Learning Limited in June 2018, global ECEC provider Busy Bees Group has steadily grown its Australian operations via both brownfield acquisition and greenfield expansion which now, when combined with the acquisition of Provincial Financial, stands at 222 centres.

“Since Busy Bees entered this region back in 2018 we have continued to invest in our footprint through new centre openings and acquisitions across Australia and now New Zealand,” Mr Hughes said.

“We have a clear ambition of continued growth underpinned by the financial strength of the Busy Bees Group. The Provincial Education and Think Childcare acquisitions allow Busy Bees to support more children, families and staff than ever before.”

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Disappoint I missed that news myself! I mentioned earlier in the year there were some Busy Bees sniffing around NZ .

Will have to run some numbers this weekend... but on a face value basis (without knowing the financials of Provincial) this would put EVO on a valuation more than double the current price.

One would suspect at least preliminary discussions have been held, but with management holding such a large number of shares probably turned away if the number wasn't high enough.

[Muse]

Waterman had 75% of Provincial so they doing OK this year eh Balance

As such take the Waterman 'premium' off and a more realistic value was $100m

But Canadians aren't as thick as small NZ investors

Quite a discount to what they had asked - AFR in march reported they wanted +NZ210m. I understand its an ‘okay’ outcome

[Balance]

Quite a discount to what they had asked - AFR in march reported they wanted +NZ210m. I understand its an ‘okay’ outcome

Waterman invested in the business in 2017 so selling within the 3-5 years’ time frame PE funds typically work with. A rather good outcome I would have thought given how the lockdowns have adversely impacted on the business.

Busy Bees (as in Ontario Teachers Pension Fund) of course have a very long term investment horizon so the lockdowns are but a hiccup, enabling them to buy cheaper.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Some of my most profitable swing trades are buying for a monthly low being set after a prolonged drop (i.e. the monthly candle getting above the high of the previous months one. Best setups are when this occurs with a bullish weekly trend change too.

EVO has achieved both of these. I said some time back that EVO had some work to do to change the weekly trend, however it has actually managed. Historically EVO has made some really wild moves, I suspect largely due to the lack of liquidity. Will be interesting to see what happens here.

No doubt they have faced some serious headwinds the last 18 months, and this is likely to persist until after Christmas. Busy Bees buy shows long term confidence in the sector. The TNK takeover was an interesting one to follow. Worth checking out the metrics on that.

Disc: long term hold (my only red position!).

EVO Monthly.jpg
EVO Weekly.jpg

[sb9]

Closed at 80c A$ on ASX y'day, could run upto a buck soon based on recent sector news

[Balance]

Closed at 80c A$ on ASX y'day, could run upto a buck soon based on recent sector news

Was as high as 83.5c but was sold down to 80c on 274 shares out of nearly 120k shares traded.

That’s a pattern there emerging every trading day. Interesting.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Was as high as 83.5c but was sold down to 80c on 274 shares out of nearly 120k shares traded.

That’s a pattern there emerging every trading day. Interesting.

No window dressing today. Looked like both buyer and seller were doing a bit of price discovery to see if price would move without them, with volume only really coming in later in the ASX session. If trend is to continue them am looking for volume to start going through above the current price of AU80c (NZ83.7c)

[Balance]

Impressive volume on the bid side! Someone wants stock and is prepared to show just how much they want!

And as per usual, the sellers have all disappeared.