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  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by benjitara View Post
    I have to disagree. They've stated that acquisition and expansion is firmly on their minds (as stated in the quarterly report they continue to acquire centers ) and even with these acquisitions they'll only occupy approx. 5% of the total eec's in NZ. I thought they were reasonable with their IPO price and have them 10-15% underpriced. It'll be interesting to see how it all goes but I do like the prospects.
    The average broker target is $1.28 (or 24% underpriced)
    No advice here. Just banter. DYOR

  2. #22
    Divorced from logic Hectorplains's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by noodles View Post
    Welcome to the forum Hectorplains.

    We can't use FY15 earnings (giving pe=23) as a indicator of value. This is because they are trading for only 3 months for FY15. FY16 is a far better measure. This would give you a pe=10. I would argue that EVO is one of the few bargains left on the NZX.

    Their main risk is their short trading history and ability for management to execute without a track record. To date, they have exceeded all their PFI metrics.

    I own EVO.

    Thank you for the welcome and correcting my PE based assumption. Another aspect that concerns me is the level of intangible assets, most of which I assume is goodwill from their acquisition frenzy? What times EBIT were those purchases made at?

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hectorplains View Post
    Thank you for the welcome and correcting my PE based assumption. Another aspect that concerns me is the level of intangible assets, most of which I assume is goodwill from their acquisition frenzy? What times EBIT were those purchases made at?
    Centres are being bought on 4.9 times EBITDA and are eps accretive
    No advice here. Just banter. DYOR

  4. #24
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Paradice becoming a SSH is a positive. They stock pickers who generally pick more winners than losers.

    Norah being Chair puts the shivers up some people's spine.

    And noodles being a shareholder ....don't know if that a good sign or not (couldn't resist that)

    Might have a closer look myself .....that definitely a bad sign.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post

    And noodles being a shareholder ....don't know if that a good sign or not (couldn't resist that)
    lol. It is a fair call. I get about 50% of my picks wrong. But I quickly work out that I'm wrong and sell. I add to my winners and let them run. For me, I need become a shareholder for a while to really understand the business. What I'm trying to say is that once you have skin in the game, you become a lot more focused.

    I also take a lot of comfort from Paradice joining the register.
    No advice here. Just banter. DYOR

  6. #26
    Divorced from logic Hectorplains's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by noodles View Post
    Centres are being bought on 4.9 times EBITDA and are eps accretive
    Thanks for that.

    This is interesting - http://www.fool.com.au/2015/06/24/no...-education-ltd - some of the same factors are in play with EVO.

  7. #27
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hectorplains View Post
    Thanks for that.

    This is interesting - http://www.fool.com.au/2015/06/24/no...-education-ltd - some of the same factors are in play with EVO.
    That's a pretty sad story

    One thing I have learnt over the years is that you need to follow the charts with these sort of outfits that growing by acquisition and consolidating a fragmented market.

    Sentiment rules. Fundamentals/broker targets and whether acquisitions are eps accretive generally mean squat all. At times they will appear undervalued and at times appear to get more and more outrageously overvalued. Just follow the squiggly line and ride any wave up but when punters turn against the company so does the share price.

    One other observation ....at some point in time there always appears to be a point where further acquisitions (counter intuitively) Dont seem to add any more value.

    So watching that squiggly line I am .....not that bright at the moment but maybe early days ....or is Norah a drag on the share price.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  8. #28
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Different market but same sort of acquisition / consolidation / capturing efficiencies model is Greencross GXL

    Their chart reflects whst I was trying to say in above post
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  9. #29
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Jeez that GEM chart looks pretty sad as well.

    Common theme here ..... EVO will need to be something special if tarred with the same brush

    Interesting
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  10. #30
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    No advice here. Just banter. DYOR

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