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26-08-2018, 09:33 PM
#3581
Member
Originally Posted by humvee
I decided to crunch some numbers again, to be honest this time i did not come up with anything particularly useful compared to in the past
Portfolio Age
Average days since investment all loans 693.57 days
Average age of active loan 493.26 days
Average age of Active F Grade Loan 657.68 days
Average age of Active E Grade Loan 595 days
Average age of Active D Grade Loan 476 days
Average age of Active C Grade Loan 410.19
Average Age of "Current" Loan 483.86 Days
Average Age of "Arrears" Loan 602.79 Days
Oldest Loan 1301 Days
Oldest Active Loan 1297 Days
Average Interest rate All Active loans 24.7%
Average Interest rate Arrears Status 27.95%
Average interest rate Current Status 24.53%
Income to repayment Ratios Average ( Monthly Repayment / Borrower Income or Combined Income )
All loans 8.33%
Paid Off 7.74%
Current 9.29%
Arrears 8.99%
Charged off 7.89%
Debt Sold 7.17%
F Grade 9.51%
E Grade 7.1%
D Grade 8.52%
C Grade 9.52%
Looks like your higher grades have a much higher repayment ratio.
With that grade mix the defaults should be much higher compared to those investing in the midgrades. What is your default as a % of loans lent?
Using platform averages, you should be generating Defaults of 11% over the lifetime (any better and you're beating the average). Can also apply static loss to work out roughly how you are currently tracking.
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27-08-2018, 01:26 PM
#3582
Member
Originally Posted by leesal
Looks like your higher grades have a much higher repayment ratio.
With that grade mix the defaults should be much higher compared to those investing in the midgrades. What is your default as a % of loans lent?
Using platform averages, you should be generating Defaults of 11% over the lifetime (any better and you're beating the average). Can also apply static loss to work out roughly how you are currently tracking.
Net Charged-Off Principal as % of Loan investments Funded is 7.14%
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28-08-2018, 10:13 AM
#3583
Member
Originally Posted by humvee
Net Charged-Off Principal as % of Loan investments Funded is 7.14%
FYI - My data on that grade mix.
Attachment 9878
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30-08-2018, 10:17 AM
#3584
yeah, nah
Historical Annual Default Rates
Not sure how new this is:
defaults.jpg
https://www.harmoney.co.nz/investors/default-rates
The height of the Light Blue area minus the height of the Dark Blue area on the bottom graph gives an indication of where the best ROI is (note that 2018 is incomplete so best removed when viewing the bottom graph).
Edit: The area difference doesn't give the ROI as I suggested - Default Rates can't be subtracted from Interest Rates for obvious reasons...Doh!
Last edited by myles; 30-08-2018 at 10:29 AM.
Reason: Clarification
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30-08-2018, 12:37 PM
#3585
Member
Originally Posted by myles
Not sure how new this is:
defaults.jpg
https://www.harmoney.co.nz/investors/default-rates
The height of the Light Blue area minus the height of the Dark Blue area on the bottom graph gives an indication of where the best ROI is (note that 2018 is incomplete so best removed when viewing the bottom graph).
Edit: The area difference doesn't give the ROI as I suggested - Default Rates can't be subtracted from Interest Rates for obvious reasons...Doh!
Cheers for that. Some really useful information. Never realised HM was supplying that. Just need some decent loans to invest in now.
Interesting to see that the average results for the individual years 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 (with the exception of grade F) are all significantly worse then the forecasted defaults.
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30-08-2018, 01:15 PM
#3586
Member
Early repayments are coming in the fastest I have ever seen over the last 3 days,
Equivalent of 40 full Notes repaid - and I almost never invest more then 4 notes per loan
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30-08-2018, 01:38 PM
#3587
Member
I notice all 4 loans listed at the moment are rewrites
Attachment 9885
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30-08-2018, 02:44 PM
#3588
Member
yep, definately hard to find quality loans at the moment. And those default rate figures I hadn't seen before. Grade F originated in 2015, 28.6% cumulative default rate, with half of that in the first year. F that!
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30-08-2018, 03:59 PM
#3589
Member
This is good as I'm trying to get my money out.
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30-08-2018, 04:18 PM
#3590
Member
Is anyone interested in buying my Harmoney account? I'm buying a house (the wife says we have to 'trade up').
I have approx $60k in there making 14.50% at present. Mostly older B4-D2 plus some other randoms in the A and E. No F. F that! All bar one investment was made before June 1 2018. $320 in arrears, about 1400 loans to pay out.
It would take you an eternity to get $60k invested, plus there are very few good loans around right now. I was going to let this run out and just pull my money out gradually, but if someone's keen on making me an offer and reaping the next 3-4 years' interest in a well-curated list of loans, PM me.
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