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Thread: Harmoney

  1. #2551
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cool Bear View Post
    I think that the 10m is the principal that has been paid for loans that are marked current. So they do not fit into the "fully paid" category.
    Thanks, that's helpful . So then I get something like this:

    Year Period All Loans % Grade A A taken out quarters % through early repay full paid loan princ paid current hazard % charged % charge
    2014 3 9 23.8% 2.14 12 0.75 75% 1.61 0.54 0.35 0.18 100% 0.9% 0.02
    2014 4 9 23.8% 2.14 11 0.6875 75% 1.61 0.54 0.31 0.22 100% 0.9% 0.02
    2015 1 22 23.8% 5.24 10 0.625 75% 3.93 1.31 0.66 0.64 100% 0.9% 0.05
    2015 2 36 23.8% 8.57 9 0.5625 75% 6.43 2.14 0.94 1.20 100% 0.9% 0.08
    2015 3 42 23.8% 10.00 8 0.5 75% 7.50 2.50 0.94 1.56 100% 0.9% 0.09
    2015 4 60 23.8% 14.28 7 0.4375 66% 9.37 4.91 1.54 3.37 95% 0.9% 0.12
    2016 1 40 23.8% 9.52 6 0.375 56% 5.36 4.17 1.07 3.09 88% 0.8% 0.07
    2016 2 47 23.8% 11.19 5 0.3125 47% 5.24 5.94 1.22 4.72 71% 0.6% 0.07
    2016 3 48 23.8% 11.42 4 0.25 38% 4.28 7.14 1.12 6.02 56% 0.5% 0.06
    2016 4 69 23.8% 16.42 3 0.1875 28% 4.62 11.80 1.31 10.49 34% 0.3% 0.05
    2017 1 51 23.8% 12.14 2 0.125 19% 2.28 9.86 0.69 9.17 12% 0.1% 0.01
    2017 2 73 23.8% 17.37 1 0.0625 9% 1.63 15.75 0.52 15.22 1% 0.0% 0.00
    506 120.428 53.84006 10.687 55.90079 0.640

    As a disclaimer, its possible to model with a different set of assumptions and arrive at the same result. Nonetheless on this set it would suggest Grade A has performed to

    Default rate of 0.225% per year
    Early repayment rate of 75% spread evenly over 1st two years (ie 37.5% would early repay after one year of loan).

    That would indicate a very high rate of early repayment! Am surprised it would be that high.
    Last edited by leesal; 13-08-2017 at 06:17 PM.

  2. #2552
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    Quote Originally Posted by leesal View Post
    Thanks, that's helpful . So then I get something like this:

    Year Period All Loans % Grade A A taken out quarters % through early repay full paid loan princ paid current hazard % charged % charge
    2014 3 9 23.8% 2.14 12 0.75 75% 1.61 0.54 0.35 0.18 100% 0.9% 0.02
    2014 4 9 23.8% 2.14 11 0.6875 75% 1.61 0.54 0.31 0.22 100% 0.9% 0.02
    2015 1 22 23.8% 5.24 10 0.625 75% 3.93 1.31 0.66 0.64 100% 0.9% 0.05
    2015 2 36 23.8% 8.57 9 0.5625 75% 6.43 2.14 0.94 1.20 100% 0.9% 0.08
    2015 3 42 23.8% 10.00 8 0.5 75% 7.50 2.50 0.94 1.56 100% 0.9% 0.09
    2015 4 60 23.8% 14.28 7 0.4375 66% 9.37 4.91 1.54 3.37 95% 0.9% 0.12
    2016 1 40 23.8% 9.52 6 0.375 56% 5.36 4.17 1.07 3.09 88% 0.8% 0.07
    2016 2 47 23.8% 11.19 5 0.3125 47% 5.24 5.94 1.22 4.72 71% 0.6% 0.07
    2016 3 48 23.8% 11.42 4 0.25 38% 4.28 7.14 1.12 6.02 56% 0.5% 0.06
    2016 4 69 23.8% 16.42 3 0.1875 28% 4.62 11.80 1.31 10.49 34% 0.3% 0.05
    2017 1 51 23.8% 12.14 2 0.125 19% 2.28 9.86 0.69 9.17 12% 0.1% 0.01
    2017 2 73 23.8% 17.37 1 0.0625 9% 1.63 15.75 0.52 15.22 1% 0.0% 0.00
    506 120.428 53.84006 10.687 55.90079 0.640

    As a disclaimer, its possible to model with a different set of assumptions and arrive at the same result. Nonetheless on this set it would suggest Grade A has performed to

    Default rate of 0.225% per year
    Early repayment rate of 75% spread evenly over 1st two years (ie 37.5% would early repay after one year of loan).

    That would indicate a very high rate of early repayment! Am surprised it would be that high.
    Good modeling!

    75% early repayment for 2014 and 2015 is not high considering it is now 2017! "A" grade loans also have a much higher early repayment than other grades. I shall share my analysis of my 3726 loans taken between June 2015 to December 2016 (18 months). Results as at 1 July 2017

    current$/ paid$/ default$/
    grade # of loans invested$ invested$ invested$ Total
    % % % %
    a 547 27.1% 72.9% 0.0% 100.00%
    b 832 31.1% 67.6% 1.2% 100.00%
    c 741 36.6% 62.1% 1.2% 100.00%
    d 790 40.9% 55.8% 3.3% 100.00%
    e 501 33.7% 54.2% 12.0% 100.00%
    f 315 32.6% 53.1% 14.3% 100.00%

    total 3726 34.3% 62.2% 3.4% 100.00%

    results as at 1st July 2017 for all loans invested from Jun 2015 to 31/12/2016

    note: %ages are based on actual $ value of loans not number of loans. The number of loans is just for information to give an idea of the population size

    .
    Last edited by Cool Bear; 13-08-2017 at 08:39 PM. Reason: data alignment

  3. #2553
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cool Bear View Post
    a 547 27.1% 72.9% 0.0% 100.00%
    b 832 31.1% 67.6% 1.2% 100.00%
    c 741 36.6% 62.1% 1.2% 100.00%
    d 790 40.9% 55.8% 3.3% 100.00%
    e 501 33.7% 54.2% 12.0% 100.00%
    f 315 32.6% 53.1% 14.3% 100.00%

    total 3726 34.3% 62.2% 3.4% 100.00%

    .
    Tried to align the numbers but it turn to custard when I post.
    The columns are
    grade
    number of loans
    % $current/$invested
    % $principal paid/$invested
    % $writeoffs/$invested
    % Total

  4. #2554
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    I see that there is a C5 loan offered this morning at the new "scorecard 1.5" (lower) interest rate (19.49% pa) but with the old estimated default rate (1.51% pa)

    Simple error or a big cut in expected return for investors in that loan?

  5. #2555
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    Wow, I got an auto-lend order today even though my ratio of funds available:invested was very low (<1%). That's an interesting change as I haven't had one in about 2 months.

  6. #2556
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    Quote Originally Posted by CageyB View Post
    Wow, I got an auto-lend order today even though my ratio of funds available:invested was very low (<1%). That's an interesting change as I haven't had one in about 2 months.
    Probably because you have very little competition as many would not have reinstated their auto lend yet.

  7. #2557
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    Anyone else seeing negative Funds Available lately?

    negative.jpg

    This is the second time I've seen it in the last week or so. Seems to be a bit of a glitch as I can't see how it could happen?
    Might have to monitor $ in vs $ out a bit closer for a while to see what's happening...

  8. #2558
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cool Bear View Post
    Good modeling!

    75% early repayment for 2014 and 2015 is not high considering it is now 2017! "A" grade loans also have a much higher early repayment than other grades. I shall share my analysis of my 3726 loans taken between June 2015 to December 2016 (18 months). Results as at 1 July 2017

    current$/ paid$/ default$/
    grade # of loans invested$ invested$ invested$ Total
    % % % %
    a 547 27.1% 72.9% 0.0% 100.00%
    b 832 31.1% 67.6% 1.2% 100.00%
    c 741 36.6% 62.1% 1.2% 100.00%
    d 790 40.9% 55.8% 3.3% 100.00%
    e 501 33.7% 54.2% 12.0% 100.00%
    f 315 32.6% 53.1% 14.3% 100.00%

    total 3726 34.3% 62.2% 3.4% 100.00%

    results as at 1st July 2017 for all loans invested from Jun 2015 to 31/12/2016

    note: %ages are based on actual $ value of loans not number of loans. The number of loans is just for information to give an idea of the population size

    .
    So thats quite a lot more then, if your stats only include Jul15 to Dec16! If I strip out A grade in those months my model gives 72.9m loans , 36.6m fully paid (50%) and 0.4m charged (0.5%); Quite a considerable % short of your 72.9%.

    It would also depend on the distribution of the data, whether most of your loans were taken in 2015. However its suggesting that nearly all borrowers early repay, either to refinance or minimise debt. Which makes sense from Harmoney's profitability, that they maximise loan writing.

    So back to the forecasting drawing board for me!
    -------------

    Another area I am struggling to reconcile, is the Arrears against performance by grade:

    For example under grade A performance by credit grade:

    Arrears are stated as 1.944m
    Current is 54.155m
    Total outstanding = 56.1m

    The ageing shows 97.59 current (so 2.4% aged in arrears)

    Multiply 2.4% in arrears by 56.1m = 1.346m

    Or an unexplained difference of 0.6m (which could be interest)

    --------------

    Moreover, you would only expect a small portion of the debt would be falling in any given period.
    Grade A:
    56m is current
    1.2m approx is falling in the month (plus interest) [using average loan length 48 months]

    If most of the arrears is falling in 1-30 days over, (1.16 of 2.4% or 48%)... That suggests 0.9m of grade A debt in arrears, which logically cannot make sense (unless 50%+ of grade A payments are dishonoring)

    Not sure where am going wrong here

  9. #2559
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    Quote Originally Posted by myles View Post
    Anyone else seeing negative Funds Available lately?

    negative.jpg

    This is the second time I've seen it in the last week or so. Seems to be a bit of a glitch as I can't see how it could happen?
    Might have to monitor $ in vs $ out a bit closer for a while to see what's happening...
    Harmoney needs to show the Transaction History in real time (Money In, Money Out, Date, Transaction type).
    I spotted the negative Funds Available a few times myself several months ago.
    Last edited by icyfire; 15-08-2017 at 02:26 PM.

  10. #2560
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    Quote Originally Posted by leesal View Post
    So thats quite a lot more then, if your stats only include Jul15 to Dec16! If I strip out A grade in those months my model gives 72.9m loans , 36.6m fully paid (50%) and 0.4m charged (0.5%); Quite a considerable % short of your 72.9%.
    My 72.9% includes the principal portion of current loans that had been paid. So, your equivalent figure is 43.57m or about 60%.

  11. #2561
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    Quote Originally Posted by myles View Post
    Anyone else seeing negative Funds Available lately?

    negative.jpg

    This is the second time I've seen it in the last week or so. Seems to be a bit of a glitch as I can't see how it could happen?
    Might have to monitor $ in vs $ out a bit closer for a while to see what's happening...
    I get that in the past when my cash balance is close to zero. But the negative balances right themselves very quickly. All due to timing differences. I used to reconcile their figures to mine to the last $ but nowadays I do not as it is too time consuming. So long as it is within a reasonable amount, it is fine with me.

  12. #2562
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    Did you see Heartland have lent $78m though Harmoney over last year

    Yiou think they (and the other instos) get first dibs and you fight over the leftovers

    Hardly true Peer to Peer is it
    Life is more risk management, rather than exclusion of risks

  13. #2563
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    Lots of loans coming thru now but they are filling quite quickly. Could be result of backup after new rates or the new rates are proving attractive?
    Soolaimon

  14. #2564
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Did you see Heartland have lent $78m though Harmoney over last year

    Yiou think they (and the other instos) get first dibs and you fight over the leftovers

    Hardly true Peer to Peer is it
    ?

    I deployed $100k in 2 $50k chunks, each time it took maybe 4-5 weeks, logging in a couple of times a day + auto lend.

    It wasn't that hard.

    So what if Heartland has $78m, it had no effect whatsoever on my ability to lend.

  15. #2565
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Yiou think they (and the other instos) get first dibs and you fight over the leftovers
    No, they don't. With retail running well above the platform average and Wholesale running below, I think it is the other way around?

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Hardly true Peer to Peer is it
    Yes it is. Even with a few BIG peers...

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