Harmoney

[leesal]

Good to have this type of discussion for us newish investors

I've just run some stats on default. And looking at the posted stats on this board, I am genuinely surprised the Interest / Charge Off Stat are so Good!

Running comparatives off Lending Club, shows

		delinq/iss*	chg/iss		chg/int
lending club	2017 Q1 & Q2	1.3%	0.1%		3%
lending club	2016 Q3 & Q4	4.8%	2.1%		23%
lending club	2016 Q1 & Q2	7.7%	5.5%		44%
lending club	2015 Q3 & Q4	9.3%	7.6%		50%
lending club	2015 Q1 & Q2	10.3%	9.3%		52%
lending club	2014 Q3 & Q4	10.2%	9.7%		48%
lending club	2014 Q1 & Q2	9.9%	9.6%		43%
lending club	Q3 2015 to Q2 2017	6.0%	4.1%		39%
harmony	All	6.5%	2.8%		21%

* Delinq = in arrears + charge off*
** HM “late” definition slightly wider, LC removes 1-15 day


Harmoney is roughly tracking Lending Club on delinquency, so Charge/Issue should project to 10%.

A couple of observations.

1. Harmoney’s Late / Charge off is HUGE. Is sitting at 132% compared LC 46% (Q3 2015+)
2. Delaying moving arrears to charge off artificially inflates platform RAR. By approx 2% if 50% delayed
3. There is a MASSIVE difference between retail and wholesale, 2.5%. If mix on grading is equal, wholesale defaults calculate out as 3 times greater then retail!

	RAR	prop %	charge	i nt	issue	days		chg/iss
Overall	11.5%		15542	72,795	558,230	325		2.78%
Retail	13.2%	30%	2100	21,839	167,469			1.25%
Wholesale	10.8%	70%	13442	50,957	390,761			3.44%