Quote Originally Posted by alistar_mid View Post
I have got a pretty decent excel model, off the report data I can reconcile my RAR exactly, and forecast future RAR based on portfolio mix and long term platform stats.
I've run a sensitivity analysis on my portolfio mix, basically need defaults to increase by 500% to have RAR hit 0%. Based on a 10 / 25 / 22.5 / 20 / 17.5 / 5 % portfolio mix.

Obv move it towards more A / B and you have a greater resilience for a recession scenario, but it really requires default rates to skyrocket for RAR to be negative.
Nice work!