Harmoney

[myles]

Chart of Expected Defaults by grade (because I hate the Hazard Curve and often find annualised data misleading):

This is calculated from historical data (unique.csv) with points on the line representing the percent of loans that are expected to default sometime in the future for a given loan age. (this is not annualised!) I've applied a window (description in title) to remove some outlier detail that plays havoc with the graph.

To give an example of how to read the details:

C Grade loans that are 10 months old have a ~3% chance of defaulting sometime in the future.

Attachment 10084

The first point on the line is the expected default rate for all loans in that grade (based on historical data) - NOT annualised.

Some interesting crossovers and some rising and some falling grades...

Fix: Had a date constraint wrong which influenced the right hand side of the chart. Note that the right hand side is still incomplete as number of loans still to low for meaningful detail at that age.