No crystal ball but the property market has always had cycles of boom, consolidation and correction. NZ home ownership rates are falling with first home owners having to wait longer as they need to save longer for deposits and requiring bigger debt (house prices have increased more than both inflation and incomes) to buy into housing. The goal of becoming mortgage free by age 60 is becoming more unattainable consequently older people are more indebted compared with previous generations.

I think that a big difference between NZ and Australia is that Australian households have more of their wealth (both absolutely and in percent terms) in financial and pension fund assets. NZers rely more on real estate (both owner-occupied and investment real estate.)

Wealth (which is mostly real estate wealth in NZ) is also becoming less evenly distributed. 8% of NZ households have 40% of NZs mortgage debt. Add to this the fact that the IMF has said NZ household debt is too high, then there is bit of an UXB (unexploded bomb) waiting for a vibration to be felt.

It is these heavily indebted households that would be particularly susceptible to any economic downturn or whenever interest rates rise from historic lows. However the ripples would be felt throughout the residential property market and have an effect on the retirement assets for many NZ households.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mon...-mortgage-debt

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2018/04/1...-high-says-imf