Quote Originally Posted by myles View Post
Early release of basic chart set for comment:

summary.pdf

I'll remove or break this link when the final data set and summary are done.

Looking for comments on the graphs etc. Will probably add to this over time, but this is just to get it out there for some initial comments so I can fix most of what needs fixing before the final data set comes together. Decided on pdf to keep it all together and for ease of viewing.

Notes:
  • The charts are all based on the full set of data (except where stated), which means the default values are watered down a little due to the approx. 9 month gap between when a loan starts and when a default is flagged as having occurred (possibly ~7 months in the past). Do we just want to live with this or make some arbitrary cut off? (or run another set)
  • Some of the earlier loans, I feel, don't reflect the more recent loans i.e. there was some 'dodgy', 'poorly' graded loans in the early days. These will likely be inflating the more 'current' default rates. Should we consider dropping some of the earlier loans out (some are still current)?
  • Perhaps the above two cancel each other out to some extent?
  • Any time based default details is broken due to 'incorrect' use of the 'Last Payment Date' field so some caution needs to be taken around this type of data.
  • Dollar values of loans i.e. 'Outstanding Principal' etc., are of no value, since they are only for the particular portion of the unique loan record in the data set - so it needs to be understood that using these values would result in meaningless detail. (A couple of values like the 'Total Loan Value' can be used - ratios might be okay.)
  • I've limited quite a few data sets to a population of at least 10, just to remove outliers so core detail in charts etc. aren't influenced.
Thanks Myles for taking so much time and effort in this. Fantastic work indeed!