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14-09-2018, 08:27 PM
#3681
Member
Originally Posted by myles
I don't agree with your calculation - as per my previous comment - early repayments are earning interest not included in your determination of 12% - defaults have already been factored in for all loans (these were actuals for the full period, re-investment included).
I've calculated my actual return for just those E5 loans as 16.99% (pre tax), 19.98% without fees.
Some of the original loans are still current and earning 38.25% interest [rates over the period include: 38.25, 26.95, 28.69]
This was why I approached the comparison from the actual loss side, much easier to calculate than trying to calculate the actual gain, which has to be done on an individual loan basis...and why it is pointless generalising the final value...
[Calculated by weighting individual returns and annualising both returns and default losses.]
Hi Myles. The intriguing thing about your data, is your loss on the lower grades being significantly less. If you select well, you can exploit thoses pockets, at the lower grades.
What we have to consider, given the age of our portfolios (both being immature), is how each individual cohort will run. By continually repurchasing, you will be witnessing the performance of a mixture of cohorts with a younger average loan age - higher interest relative as a portion of monthly repayments, less loans reaching 120-180 days in arrears etc.
HM annual average default is misleading. Rather I prefer to look at cohort default across the full term. Taking HM forecasted stats for Grade "E", their default forecasts are approx 4.5% per annum, or 22.5% across a 5 year term. To validate this, taking the 2014 E grade performance off the "historical annual default rate tool " https://www.harmoney.co.nz/investors/default-rates - shows that the cumulative default of E grade at 22.7% (and running to a similar place on 2015 and 2016 cohorts). Critically the definition of cumulative default is based on the number of loans originally funded, not the loans outstanding.
How is the cumulative default rate calculated?
The cumulative default rate is calculated by dividing the total number of defaults by the total number of loans funded. For example in 2015, for grade C3, 447 loans were funded and 17 loans defaulted to the end of 2017 creating a cumulative default rate of 3.8%.
How that reads to me, is early repayment is not factored in. If HM were to publish annual default based on time in lent, the number would be significantly different. ie If 22% of your E grade loans are going to default, and 78% remain good - how are your stats going to look if 40% of the good ones repay early in the first 12 months!
To run some really crude numbers, here is a mocked up example on 5 year on E5. I've used heuristics to make the stats less complicated (no hazard curve, timing of cash at start of period).
Attachment 9931
Ultimately I'm not in disagreement with the part of your analysis that compares relative defaults between the grades. If you can select DEF grades which will default at the same rate as BC's - then fantastic. And those lucky enough to get in at 38.25%, kudos and am jealous. But rather trying to throw questions for those who may otherwise assume that 20% gross returns are readily achievable at todays rates.
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14-09-2018, 10:53 PM
#3682
yeah, nah
I would do the calculation as below. I'm not sure where your repayment values are coming from in your second table?
Attachment 9933
Notes:
- The second table shows re-investment of both paid-off loans and interest, as well as cumulative defaults (if only you could cash out like this).
- The first table doesn't allow for 5 years due to fund shortfall at 4th year - so I just paid it out at that point.
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15-09-2018, 01:18 AM
#3683
Member
Originally Posted by myles
I would do the calculation as below. I'm not sure where your repayment values are coming from in your second table?
Attachment 9933
Notes:
- The second table shows re-investment of both paid-off loans and interest, as well as cumulative defaults (if only you could cash out like this).
- The first table doesn't allow for 5 years due to fund shortfall at 4th year - so I just paid it out at that point.
You are on the right track. I mucked up the 2nd table, and for that matter the 1st wasn't right either - double counting defaults. I've refined again Works out at somewhere between 12-15%.
In that simple model, if are able to achieve a default of 3% pa (or 15% over the term), return lifts to just under 20%.
Attachment 9936
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16-09-2018, 11:39 AM
#3684
Member
This is the analysis I'm running for my Cohorts.
For each cohort population (by month), I've taken HM interest rate and annual default rates. Using this data & early repayment date i'm able to track the expected performance through the loan term.
Shows that my current cohorts are running at approx 15.1% after fee, against expected RAR of 14.5%. Am showing that overall full term RAR is projecting at 10.5%. Which reflects the much lower expected RAR under platform 1.5 pre May18.
Note - am only modelling cohorts older then 6 months, to allow early repayment data to settle down.
Attachment 9941
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17-09-2018, 08:17 AM
#3685
Member
Market place is Busy this morning, 11 Loans - 100% rewrites, a number of good ones
Unfortunatly Ive moved most the my spare $ to lending crowd so almost none available to invest,
But Ill bet the money comes flooding back into my account once these loans are gone due to early repayments
Attachment 9942
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17-09-2018, 08:55 AM
#3686
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17-09-2018, 09:11 AM
#3687
Member
Did you catch the defaulties ? in a few of them.
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17-09-2018, 09:33 AM
#3688
Member
Originally Posted by IntheRearWithTheGear
Did you catch the defaulties ? in a few of them.
I didn't spot that - but I only looked enough to pick what I had $ for
No defaults in any of the 6 still listed and none on the one I invested in
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17-09-2018, 09:40 AM
#3689
Member
Originally Posted by humvee
Market place is Busy this morning, 11 Loans - 100% rewrites, a number of good ones
Unfortunatly Ive moved most the my spare $ to lending crowd so almost none available to invest,
But Ill bet the money comes flooding back into my account once these loans are gone due to early repayments
Attachment 9942
I forgot I had my C D E F Grade filter on when I did screenshot - so there would have been more loans available then that
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17-09-2018, 09:40 AM
#3690
Member
Originally Posted by myles
First time I've been < $25 available funds for a long time
Dont expect it to last - expect the early repayments to arrive any second now ......
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