Harmoney

[Cool Bear]

How have you found your arrears spread?

I analysed it just once some months ago but did not keep the results. Too much time doing it and not that meaningful as whether an arrear become a write-off or not is difficult to predict. Now, I hardly looked at the arrears at all.

[Bjauck]

I analysed it just once some months ago but did not keep the results. Too much time doing it and not that meaningful as whether an arrear become a write-off or not is difficult to predict. Now, I hardly looked at the arrears at all.

I imagine the longer a note is in arrears the more likely it will be charged off. So when looking at your notes in arrears, a note one month in arrears will be less likely to convert to a charge off than a note three months in arrears. Has anyone studied that?.

[Cool Bear]

I imagine the longer a note is in arrears the more likely it will be charged off. So when looking at your notes in arrears, a note one month in arrears will be less likely to convert to a charge off than a note three months in arrears. Has anyone studied that?.

Yes, I did a quick calculation about 2 weeks ago, tallying up my arrears into before March, March, April and May (based on last payment) and then arbitrarily assigning a percentage to each months total - eg, before March 100%, March, 80% and so on.. I estimated that I will get another $2000+ charge-offs in the next few months.

[whitt]

Yes, I did a quick calculation about 2 weeks ago, tallying up my arrears into before March, March, April and May (based on last payment) and then arbitrarily assigning a percentage to each months total - eg, before March 100%, March, 80% and so on.. I estimated that I will get another $2000+ charge-offs in the next few months.

Good to know. My oldest arrears is April so going by your theory i will predict 60% charge off chance