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24-01-2018, 08:09 PM
#3011
Member
Originally Posted by Soolaimon
I am not up with all this technical analyzing of returns but I thought some may be interested in a little exercise I have just done. My first loan purchase was in Sept 2014, In the next 4 months I took out 88 Loans all 36 months and for $ 25 to $ 150. Of those 88 loans, only 8 went full term and there are 3 still running and for some reason well behind in payments. 10 were charged off. The spread of grades was pretty even through A to E with only 5 F's.
I have steadily invested since but have to take 60 month loans to keep up and as far as RAR goes it was up around 15-16% for the first 6=8 months but then went down to about 13% where it has stayed ever since. ( now at 12.7%)
Still happy enough but no new funds in for more than a year now.
Looks like you were not sufficiently diversified. Best to have, say, at least 100 per grade.
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25-01-2018, 01:41 PM
#3012
Member
Just as a matter of interest people: when looking at your export sheet, what proportion of live loans which should have received a payment recently are recorded as Current but actually have had no payment this past month - say up to and including the 15th of the month. I have 4% of my live loans recorded as Current which are actually in arrears. That's on top of the 2.5% recorded as in arrears. Anyone else chatting to Harmony about this?
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26-01-2018, 07:26 AM
#3013
Originally Posted by BJ1
Just as a matter of interest people: when looking at your export sheet, what proportion of live loans which should have received a payment recently are recorded as Current but actually have had no payment this past month - say up to and including the 15th of the month. I have 4% of my live loans recorded as Current which are actually in arrears. That's on top of the 2.5% recorded as in arrears. Anyone else chatting to Harmony about this?
Probably reflects the delay in actual payment and you actually being credited with it. Usually 2-3 days.
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26-01-2018, 09:53 AM
#3014
Member
Originally Posted by leesal
Thanks Soolaimon. Could have been a bad first up batch, low sample size.
Harmoney 1.0 suggests you should have only had 6 defaults, in all likelihood you'll end up with 12 or 13. Hopefully the rest of the loan book isn't running similar.
Grade |
3 yr default |
loans |
|
defaults |
A |
0.5% |
16 |
|
0.1 |
B |
1.6% |
17 |
|
0.3 |
C |
3.6% |
17 |
|
0.6 |
D |
5.9% |
17 |
|
1.0 |
E |
12.3% |
16 |
|
2.0 |
F |
29.4% |
5 |
|
1.5 |
Tot |
|
88 |
|
5.4 |
What is your profit on these loans if any? (eg taking your interest received and deducting all premium outstanding, whether defaulted or in arrears)
Hi Leesal, I will get to this in the next day or so, bit on at the moment, just had another couple of defaults tho.
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26-01-2018, 11:19 AM
#3015
Member
Originally Posted by 777
Probably reflects the delay in actual payment and you actually being credited with it. Usually 2-3 days.
Not so. There are real issues with Harmoney's recording of overdue payments and have been for months.
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26-01-2018, 11:30 AM
#3016
Member
In case anyone cares, here are my results, investing since March 2016.
Total RAR (from Harmoney): 15.80%
Total loans: 962
All 36-month loans
Loan breakdown by $invested: A 19.4% / B 25.7% / C 21.7% / D 20.5% / E 12.7% / F 0%
# Loans in arrears >30 days: 7
# Loans canceled: 11
# Loans paid off: 354
# Loans charged off: 12
Charged off breakdown by Grade: A 0 / B 1 / C 1 / D 1 / E 9 / F N/A
Last edited by CageyB; 26-01-2018 at 02:07 PM.
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26-01-2018, 12:58 PM
#3017
Member
Originally Posted by CageyB
In case anyone cares, here are my results, investing since March 2016.
Total RAR (from Harmoney): 15.80%
Total loans: 962
All 36-month loans
Loan breakdown by $invested: A 19.4% / B 25.7% / C 21.7% / D 20.5% / E 12.7% / F 0%
# Loans in arrears >30 days: 7
# Loans Charged off: 12
Charged off breakdown by Grade: A 0 / B 1 / C 1 / D 1 / E 9 / F N/A
Nice, thems some good stats.
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26-01-2018, 02:12 PM
#3018
Member
Thanks. Since 1.5 I've been consciously putting less into A and trying to invest more heavily into the C and D grades.
Last edited by CageyB; 26-01-2018 at 05:59 PM.
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27-01-2018, 07:17 AM
#3019
Originally Posted by CageyB
In case anyone cares...
People may not write here regularly, but if this thread is over 200 pages, they do appreciate and engage, when they can. By the way, Enviable stats CageyB.
Your numbers are too thin for confident analysis, Soolaimon, but good to see you are reasonably content. Defaults can impact highly on thin numbers, skewing observations.
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27-01-2018, 09:07 AM
#3020
Member
Originally Posted by BJ1
Not so. There are real issues with Harmoney's recording of overdue payments and have been for months.
Agreed.
If you go into Loan Export, The data there shows the arrears accurately (Time in arrears (days))
To take a shot in the dark as to why. It could be "Status" reporting relate to Harmoney's own internal Credit Control. (eg "CURRENT" = ???successful contact with borrower, adequate explanation & plan to get back on track???).
Loan ID |
Date |
Status |
Time in arrears (days) |
Grade |
LAI-00106881 |
22/08/2017 |
Arrears |
31-60 |
E3 |
LAI-00108053 |
24/08/2017 |
Current |
31-60 |
D1 |
LAI-00112018 |
29/09/2017 |
Current |
1-30 |
F4 |
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