Harmoney

[whitt]

Interesting to note, I have 4 arrears currently and two are C grade and the other 2 are D grade. This is a bit of a worry if you see my spread as I have very few D grade loans.

Snapshot attached

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[whitt]

Sorry for the miscommunication. I have 47 charge offs - "$000" ($thousands) of charge-off. Mostly in E and F.

Have been in since June 2015. So, far, the charge offs comes between 5 to 9 months of the loans with an average so far of 6.8months. The soonest was 2.1months and the slowest was 11.8months.

When you said June, did you mean June 2016 or June 2015? If you only started this year, then do be prepared for the charge offs to come later.

my loans profile is:

How have you found your arrears spread?

[Cool Bear]

How have you found your arrears spread?

I analysed it just once some months ago but did not keep the results. Too much time doing it and not that meaningful as whether an arrear become a write-off or not is difficult to predict. Now, I hardly looked at the arrears at all.

[Bjauck]

I analysed it just once some months ago but did not keep the results. Too much time doing it and not that meaningful as whether an arrear become a write-off or not is difficult to predict. Now, I hardly looked at the arrears at all.

I imagine the longer a note is in arrears the more likely it will be charged off. So when looking at your notes in arrears, a note one month in arrears will be less likely to convert to a charge off than a note three months in arrears. Has anyone studied that?.

[Cool Bear]

I imagine the longer a note is in arrears the more likely it will be charged off. So when looking at your notes in arrears, a note one month in arrears will be less likely to convert to a charge off than a note three months in arrears. Has anyone studied that?.

Yes, I did a quick calculation about 2 weeks ago, tallying up my arrears into before March, March, April and May (based on last payment) and then arbitrarily assigning a percentage to each months total - eg, before March 100%, March, 80% and so on.. I estimated that I will get another $2000+ charge-offs in the next few months.

[whitt]

Yes, I did a quick calculation about 2 weeks ago, tallying up my arrears into before March, March, April and May (based on last payment) and then arbitrarily assigning a percentage to each months total - eg, before March 100%, March, 80% and so on.. I estimated that I will get another $2000+ charge-offs in the next few months.

Good to know. My oldest arrears is April so going by your theory i will predict 60% charge off chance

[Saamee]

Over the last week I just witnessed my Arrears grow by $50 to $150. I thought here we go many new Write offs coming.

Then over the last 2 days I had 3 loans repaid early.

Then today I see that the Arrears have gone Down correspondingly!

So the moral ( perhaps ) Growing Arrears does not always equal new Write Offs!

Anyone else witnessed this happening?

[WingingIt]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/harmone...-year-b-192115

Who's got an idea where these came from?. Institutional only maybe? "while performance fees when a lender's portfolio beat an agreed return were $798,000"

[Cool Bear]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/harmone...-year-b-192115

Who's got an idea where these came from?. Institutional only maybe? "while performance fees when a lender's portfolio beat an agreed return were $798,000"

Definitely. Harmoney will be managing money from the likes of Heartland. One do not imagine Heartland having a few full time staff to go through the loans available and loan so many notes each to every loan. As in all money (funds) management, there is a always a performance fee if you manage to beat a certain benchmark.

[Cool Bear]

Over the last week I just witnessed my Arrears grow by $50 to $150. I thought here we go many new Write offs coming.

Then over the last 2 days I had 3 loans repaid early.

Then today I see that the Arrears have gone Down correspondingly!

So the moral ( perhaps ) Growing Arrears does not always equal new Write Offs!

Anyone else witnessed this happening?

Your arrears also drops when there is a charge-off. It is the age of the arrears that matters more. The total amount of arrears fluctuates greatly - sometimes depending on whether Harmoney process the payments from the borrowers. Often there is a backlog and then a sudden increase in cash available (and reduction in the arrears).

By the way, just is case some here (not you Saamee) are unaware of the distinction. The arrears is just the total amount of payments due from the borrowers that are not paid yet (including interest) not the total principal owing by these delinquent borrowers. That amount (at risk) can be at least 10 times more and if you want to find that out, you have to add up all the outstanding principal owing. Most of you will already know this so just a reminder!