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Thread: Harmoney

  1. #2311
    yeah, nah
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    Interesting? - Arrears by Credit Grade graph at the bottom of the Marketplace Statistics page, shows individual grade arrears values - the values I find interesting are the 181 days plus for C (0.13%) vs D (0.15%) and E (0.45%) vs F (0.46%) - very similar for these two pair of grades - does that suggest that they have similar default rates and, for example, if you invest in E grades, you might as well invest in F grades?

    Perhaps I'm reading too much into these values?

    Attachment 8941

    It will be interesting to see how these change over time if nothing else, could be a good indicator of things going bad (or getting better)...

  2. #2312
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    Well that's $500m Turnover, but with 40% repayments is that about $300m in current loans?
    I wouldn't invest in either E or F grade anymore!

  3. #2313
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    Quote Originally Posted by permutation View Post
    I wouldn't invest in either E or F grade anymore!
    I would never have guessed that

  4. #2314
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    Quote Originally Posted by myles View Post
    Interesting? - Arrears by Credit Grade graph at the bottom of the Marketplace Statistics page, shows individual grade arrears values - the values I find interesting are the 181 days plus for C (0.13%) vs D (0.15%) and E (0.45%) vs F (0.46%) - very similar for these two pair of grades - does that suggest that they have similar default rates and, for example, if you invest in E grades, you might as well invest in F grades?

    Perhaps I'm reading too much into these values?...
    Do most arrears "progress" from 121-180 days to default status without reaching 181 days in arrear? If that's the case then the 3.77% of F grades in arrears 121-180 days (Vs. 2.77% of E grades) would indicate the likelihood of a greater % of F grades about to go into default.

    Just checking Investor FAQ:
    "If we are unable to collect from the Borrower within 120 days, the loan is considered defaulted and moves into a "charged off" status. In some cases, loans may not be charged off at 120 days if there is a reasonable likelihood of payments being made."

    It sounds like only a very few arrears would make it past 180 days without being defaulted earlier. The comparative 91-120 days in arrears figures of 2.80% for E grades Vs 4.81% for F grades suggest most defaults have occurred prior to being 181 days in arrear.

    https://www.harmoney.co.nz/how-it-works/investor-faq
    Last edited by Bjauck; 25-06-2017 at 02:06 PM. Reason: Referred to the FAQ

  5. #2315
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    Yeah, was thinking the same thing after I posted. The numbers don't look quite right with the 1-30 coming after the 31-60 either?

    Still could be a good indicator of what's happening if monitored over time, though not sure how often the graph will be updated. Wait and see I guess.

  6. #2316
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    If you look at the other end i.e. A, B and C at the 120 day point, they are all very close to 0.4%, so perhaps A and B's are of much less value than C's based on the percentage return? (Could just be dodgy numbers???)

  7. #2317
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    How is it possible for a borrower in their 30s to have been at a residence for 40 years? It makes me wonder if Harmoney bothers to check the info that borrowers provide at all.
    Screenshot_4.jpg

  8. #2318
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    Quote Originally Posted by myles View Post
    It's 2 loans in 30-60 arrears, but I write them off at 60 days so my numbers are a more realistic present value. (Harmoney list it as $1.88 in arrears if that helps). At this stage this doesn't set off any alarm bells for me. I consider $2,000 to be charged-off each year to be expected for the loan spread that I have. Ask me again in 7-8 months, my opinion might change when arrears really kick in
    I'm at the 9-10 month point with $100k invested in now - although this was $50k about 6 months in and then another input of $50k of the last 3 months.
    I don't have auto invest going and plan to just let the money come out weekly until i am down to $50k

    I think Myles and I have roughly similar loan distributions, my average loan size is around $90 too, although I am 80% 5 year loans and myles is ~80% 3 year loans (I think)

    So this is me as of now, i started in Aug last year

    hamrony 2706.JPG

  9. #2319
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    Quote Originally Posted by alistar_mid View Post
    So this is me as of now, i started in Aug last year
    Those A's are holding you back I'm waiting for my RAR to come in to compare to your's - I think I'll beat you because of your A's. Should have some money on it.

    Grades.png

  10. #2320
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    Quote Originally Posted by myles View Post
    I consider $2,000 to be charged-off each year to be expected for the loan spread that I have. Ask me again in 7-8 months, my opinion might change when arrears really kick in
    Miles, I used Harmoney default rate for each loan in a spreedsheet which then works out the weighted average default rate. I presume you do too. I am almost 2 years in and over 5000 loans (mostly minimal notes). My weighted average default rate/weighted average gross interest rate as per the spreadsheet is 10.22%. However, in real life it is 19.6% currently. So you probably have to up your expected charged-off to $4000.

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