Harmoney

[myles]

However, in real life it is 19.6% currently. So you probably have to up your expected charged-off to $4000.

Just checking, is that, 19.6% per annum or for the two years?

[alistar_mid]

Those A's are holding you back I'm waiting for my RAR to come in to compare to your's - I think I'll beat you because of your A's. Should have some money on it.

Attachment 8946

Yeah probably about the first $20k I put in I was investing in anything and everything, and since there where a lot of A's, a lot was going into them

[Cool Bear]

Just checking, is that, 19.6% per annum or for the two years?

It is the percentage of your annual default rate over your annual interest rate. Say your weighted average annual default rate is 2.1% and your weighted average annual interest rate is 21%. So you would expect about 10% of your gross interest to be lost to defaults. My calculated percentage is 10.22% so if Harmony's estimates were correct, I would expect to lose 10.22% of my gross interest to charge-offs. But in reality 19.7% of my gross interest to-date was lost to defaults (charge-offs).

[myles]

Using your x2 factor from your mix of loans can't really be equally applied to my mix, but using my current values it works out at 1.59%/22.79% = 6.977%, which in theory works out at $1590 pa for $100K. Using your x2 factor, gives $3,180. Will have to wait and see how it works out.

Note this doesn't factor in lower interest achieved due to defaulted loans, nor does it factor in increased interest from reinvesting... I'm tempted to write a simulation if I ever find the time...

Based on the above and my tax rate etc., I'd still be earning 13.8% (not considering reinvestment). I'd be very happy with that

[Cool Bear]

Note this doesn't factor in lower interest achieved due to defaulted loans

You are right, it does not..

nor does it factor in increased interest from reinvesting...

this it does as every loan has an interest rate and a default rate and those are included in the (simple) calculation.

Based on the above and my tax rate etc., I'd still be earning 13.8% (not considering reinvestment). I'd be very happy with that

I am very happy with my RAR of 14% too..

[Cool Bear]

You are right, it does not..




this it does as every loan has an interest rate and a default rate and those are included in the (simple) calculation.




I am very happy with my RAR of 14% too..

Please note that my weighted interest rate is a bit lower as it includes the lower interest rates for C, D, E and F loans before Harmoney raised them in December 2015 when they change their borrower's fees. Harmoney did not adjust the estimated default rates then.

[myles]

this it does as every loan has an interest rate and a default rate and those are included in the (simple) calculation.

My point was that the original principal of $100K would increase over time due to interest being reinvested, so compounding would increase the % return over time.

[alistar_mid]

do you guys know an easy way to see the breakdown of what made up your weekly withdrawals?

ie I have no auto lend, so any money coming "off" loans goes into my bank account each monday, but what the split between
- interest
- principle repayment
- early loan pay back

I tried downloading the csv and sorting by last 7 days prior to each monday and totaling "last payment amount" - as this at least i think covers everything above, but it doesn't reconcile.

[myles]

Tough one - timing is always going to be an issue. Not sure you could reconcile anything other than the Monthly statement?

Maybe the difference between the total of "Payments to Date", "Principal", "Gross Int Paid" and "Service / Lender Fee" from the previous week? (To the nearest $25).

Added: When I say total, I mean all time total.

[BJ1]

do you guys know an easy way to see the breakdown of what made up your weekly withdrawals?

I've found that there is nearly always a difference of at least one payment on one loan between what I see in actual payments received in my list of loans and the amounts shown as received on my dashboard. It seems not to matter what time I update my own spreadsheet - something is nearly always missing somewhere. But from time to time it all balances properly.