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21-07-2017, 02:51 PM
#2431
Member
RAR and (forward) risks are all that matters
Originally Posted by BJ1
If you had invested everything on day one in a basket of loans averaging out at, say, C1 (about the middle of the platform exposures) you could expect to lose a lot less than 10%pa of your total interest. Perhaps your risk profile is to the high end but it seems to me more that you are experiencing a higher loss rate than Harmoney predicts.
After 27months I've lost $668 of my total interest of $18,329. My RAR is 13.41% so even with your higher losses you are making a better net return than I am. The difference being that I keep my higher return exposure under tight rein because I dislike the high rates borrowers pay.
Perhaps too many investors (and I'm not suggesting this applies to you) look at their losses instead of their net return? Also, it seems too many look at RAR instead of projecting forward.
I am quite happy with my slightly over 14% RAR. Trying to increase that to 15% without taking too many risks. I take bad loans as part of the game although it is still not nice to have them. A lot of the bad loans due to the initial investments as I went into Harmoney quite big in the first 6 months. I am still taking E and F but very minimal in terms of $value. Bulk of new loans I take are now in AtoD.
I do think that Harmoney's estimate of default rates are a bit understated (at best).
Like many on this forum, 30+% is sinfully high interest to me. But then at least with Harmoney, it is all transparent and the borrowers do not get any serious threats if they are late in paying.
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21-07-2017, 02:56 PM
#2432
Member
Originally Posted by Cool Bear
I am quite happy with my slightly over 14% RAR. Trying to increase that to 15% without taking too many risks. I take bad loans as part of the game although it is still not nice to have them. A lot of the bad loans due to the initial investments as I went into Harmoney quite big in the first 6 months. I am still taking E and F but very minimal in terms of $value. Bulk of new loans I take are now in AtoD.
I do think that Harmoney's estimate of default rates are a bit understated (at best).
Like many on this forum, 30+% is sinfully high interest to me. But then at least with Harmoney, it is all transparent and the borrowers do not get any serious threats if they are late in paying.
take this for what you will, just gossip - don't hold Harmoney to it or anything.
I was at a snowballeffect (start up crowdfunding) get together thing, one of the speakers was a board member of Harmoney.
Naturally I picked his brains afterward.
He said Harmoney is not too keen on F's either as the interest rate is just ridiculous, and they could be phased out.
Like I said though, it was just talk at the end of a conference, so whether it happens or not is something else.
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21-07-2017, 05:36 PM
#2433
Member
Originally Posted by alistar_mid
take this for what you will, just gossip - don't hold Harmoney to it or anything.
I was at a snowballeffect (start up crowdfunding) get together thing, one of the speakers was a board member of Harmoney.
Naturally I picked his brains afterward.
He said Harmoney is not too keen on F's either as the interest rate is just ridiculous, and they could be phased out.
Like I said though, it was just talk at the end of a conference, so whether it happens or not is something else.
I think F's and to some extent E's are probably better suited to other business models. Without intensive management the returns don't appear to be there even with those uncomfortably high interest rates....
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21-07-2017, 07:47 PM
#2434
yeah, nah
Originally Posted by alistar_mid
He said Harmoney is not too keen on F's either as the interest rate is just ridiculous, and they could be phased out.
I suspect this started at the beginning of this year:
Attachment 9011
See right hand side of chart - reduction in black (F) and green (E).
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22-07-2017, 05:18 PM
#2435
yeah, nah
4 Months in ($100K added, no withdrawals)
4 Months in ($100K added, no withdrawals):
Total Loans: 1,159
Overall Avg: $92.45
Paid Off: 27 (2.33%)
Arrears:
1-30 12 (1.04%)
31-60 6 (0.52%)
61-90 0
91-120 0
Total Value increase (after tax and fees): $3,769.03 (Interesting that interest less tax and fees is currently $2,256.03, the difference is the Protect Rebates - still coming to grips with the effect these have over time).
Two charts that I'm running with:
chart_XIRR.png
This shows the total XIRR value and an adjusted XIRR (this is after tax and fees).
Adjusted XIRR is simply the XIRR value less any arrears in the 31-60 days or above (total value of these loans owing, not amount in arrears, effectively writing them off early for a much better current value). This seems to be tracking well and will likely become more 'stable' in time. A bit of a dip at present, I suspect due to school holidays?
chart_P+G.png
Just a summary chart, highlighting any significant changes.
Harmoney RAR currently 14.05%, but still rising.
Added: Meant to include that this investment is currently returning an average of $54 per day but has not yet had the full interest paid for the entire $100K - will have by next month.
Last edited by myles; 22-07-2017 at 10:11 PM.
Reason: Add daily income.
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23-07-2017, 01:42 PM
#2436
Member
Originally Posted by myles
4 Months in ($100K added, no withdrawals):
Added: Meant to include that this investment is currently returning an average of $54 per day but has not yet had the full interest paid for the entire $100K - will have by next month.
Hi Myles
We never get the full interest as part of it will be in arrears. And when some Arrears are charged off, only the principal is recorded whereas the amount owing for the interest is not recorded at point of charge off and is thus lost.
You are doing well.
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23-07-2017, 01:53 PM
#2437
yeah, nah
Originally Posted by Cool Bear
We never get the full interest as part of it will be in arrears. And when some Arrears are charged off, only the principal is recorded whereas the amount owing for the interest is not recorded at point of charge off and is thus lost.
Sorry I wasn't clear, what I meant was that the last part of the 100K was invested less than a month ago, so has not yet received interest for the first month - so the overall 'picture' should still improve a little.
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26-07-2017, 11:24 AM
#2438
yeah, nah
Anyone else not getting reports emailed to them at the moment?
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26-07-2017, 11:31 AM
#2439
Member
Originally Posted by myles
Anyone else not getting reports emailed to them at the moment?
I presume you meant the "export" link email. Sometimes that takes up to 30 minutes to arrive in your inbox. It is rather frustrating as you may be busy with something else and forgot about it. And when you finally got back to checking your email, the link expires and you have to request it again. Did not have time to talk to Harmoney about this yet but will do so one day.
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26-07-2017, 11:39 AM
#2440
yeah, nah
Originally Posted by Cool Bear
I presume you meant the "export" link email.
Yep, but I'm not getting emails at all - since yesterday.
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