Harmoney

[myles]

These actual platform stats differ from the estimated default rates on website

The statement at the bottom of the fist linked graph might explain that:

Charged Off amounts shown in the table are total lifetime Charge Offs to-date. They cannot be directly compared to the annual forecast default rate here as they are not annual Charge-Off amounts. Results may vary.

I think there is another element that needs to be considered here also - these values are weighted on dollar value, which may not correlate to number of unique loans i.e. more smaller loans may default - what I'm trying to saying is that the ratio of defaulted dollars to total dollars may not be the same as number of defaulted loans to total number of loans.

Probably similar, but there could be some variances.

[Investor]

Yes as myles has pointed out you have calculated the default rate using actual figures which are from the inception of Harmoney, not a 12 month period.

[whitt]

cheers.
hopefully they reset the stats data anyway with new scorecard

[joker]

Does anybody out there keep stats on rewritten loan charge-off rates? I was wondering if rewrite loans are a greater or lesser risk than first time loans (given that most of the time only a few payments have been made before rewriting for a higher amount). I'm concerned that rewrites might be borrowers just digging themselves deeper into debt.

[Cool Bear]

Does anybody out there keep stats on rewritten loan charge-off rates? I was wondering if rewrite loans are a greater or lesser risk than first time loans (given that most of the time only a few payments have been made before rewriting for a higher amount). I'm concerned that rewrites might be borrowers just digging themselves deeper into debt.

I don't. And as the transaction reports from Harmoney does not have the info, it will be rather tedious to come up with proper stats. One can go through one's defaults and see which ones are rewrites but that does not means much unless you know how many rewrites are in your total population of loans.

[leesal]

Hi,

I'm new on Harmoney, and looks like I've missed some opportunities, given the difference between scorecard 1.0 and 1.5. Anyway I price risk for a living so thought this would be somewhat interesting.

Following on from Whitt's post, and appreciate that charge off stats and defaults are on a different basis. Nonetheless, it would be useful the reconcile the stats. Which is my query, are we able to accurately relate the stats to each other, in order to see how each grade is tracking against their budget.

Pulling off an example of grade A:

	issued	Current	Full Pd	Arrears	Charge Off	Difference
A	120,703,405	54,155,061	53,807,450	1,944,987	621,621	10,174,286

First of all: There is a difference of 10k in the stats. My initial thought was these were loans that were repaid early, however surely these would be categorised under "Full Pd".

2: The 120m of loan issued, would be spread across the 33 months since inception, and would be a mix of 3 and 5 year loans. If we assume these are evenly distributed and that the loans are all 4 years. The average loan would be 16 months through, therefore having a further 32 months to run. If I take the hazard rates, which are only currently 29 months through (and ignore the that am applying the stats to a distribution rather then the mean), after 16 months 70% of the loses would have eventuated.

Therefore I take the 0.5% and stretch it out over the term, which gives a 0.73% default, lets call it 0.8% (taking a mean rather then distribution would skew hazard rates up, so feel a figure in the 60s for hazard is more appropriate)

Therefore charge off rates of 0.2% per year, against a forecast of 0.16%

Any problems with this working? Other then the "difference", I guess there is also debt which is beyond terms, which could be brought into the calculatioln.

Cheers

[myles]

First of all: There is a difference of 10k in the stats. My initial thought was these were loans that were repaid early, however surely these would be categorised under "Full Pd".

This could be due to Cancelled loans maybe i.e. Loans issued, but borrower doesn't go ahead with the loan?

[Cool Bear]

Hi,


Pulling off an example of grade A:

	issued	Current	Full Pd	Arrears	Charge Off	Difference
A	120,703,405	54,155,061	53,807,450	1,944,987	621,621	10,174,286

First of all: There is a difference of 10k in the stats. My initial thought was these were loans that were repaid early, however surely these would be categorised under "Full Pd".


Cheers

I think that the 10m is the principal that has been paid for loans that are marked current. So they do not fit into the "fully paid" category.

[myles]

I think that the 10m is the principal that has been paid for loans that are marked current. So they do not fit into the "fully paid" category.

Yes, this! That actually tells a bit of a story about loan lifespan i.e. paid out early.

[scottwalshnz]

Looks like scorecard 1.5 goes into effect midnight tonight...