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22-08-2017, 09:43 AM
#2571
5 months in has yet to show up any write offs. I predict that 12 months out from now your XIRR will be closer to 10%.
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22-08-2017, 10:16 AM
#2572
Member
Originally Posted by 777
5 months in has yet to show up any write offs. I predict that 12 months out from now your XIRR will be closer to 10%.
No, it will be at least 13%, more likely mid to high 14+%
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22-08-2017, 10:20 AM
#2573
Originally Posted by Cool Bear
No, it will be at least 13%, more likely mid to high 14+%
Myles is talking tax paid return though.
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22-08-2017, 10:21 AM
#2574
Member
But the new interest rates will put a dampener to the returns, so assuming a high churn rate of 8 to 10% a month with no new investments, the RAR could drop to just around or below 14%.
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22-08-2017, 10:21 AM
#2575
Member
Originally Posted by 777
Myles is talking tax paid return though.
Ok, then you may be right depending on his tax rate
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22-08-2017, 04:25 PM
#2576
yeah, nah
Originally Posted by joker
Very impressive returns. Do you lend much on payment protect loans or do you tend to avoid them?
Take them as they come i.e. I don't prioritise either way. Of the all time total 1218 loans, exactly 300 are Payment Protect loans.
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22-08-2017, 04:35 PM
#2577
yeah, nah
Originally Posted by 777
5 months in has yet to show up any write offs. I predict that 12 months out from now your XIRR will be closer to 10%.
I'm predicting (at the moment), 15.3% - rates have changed but I'll be moving my investment band, so it's a bit tough to predict anything now...
Note: This is with compounding, i.e. all returns are reinvested, it's not a static 100K (currently 105K), so I think 10% is well below likely returns - my thoughts only.
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22-08-2017, 04:45 PM
#2578
yeah, nah
Just working it through a bit...
Since it took me a little over 3 months to invest the 100K, lets put the investment equivalent time at 4 months. So at current return I should have 15K clear at 12 months less defaults. To only get 10% I'd have to have 50 new (full) defaults (rounding up to $100 per loan) - but since almost all loans have already returned 4 months of interest/principle, I'd have to be looking at, at least 75 defaults. That's 7.5% pa defaults. My average Harmoney suggested default rate is 1.59%, even if you double that it's not close to 7.5%...
I'm in a unique position to know exactly what has gone in and am not adding or drawing funds, so come 12 months it will be interesting to see where it's ended up.
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22-08-2017, 06:33 PM
#2579
Good effort getting 100k invested in such a short time. I have only managed to get 15k in 3 months. I'm 80% going for 36 month loans however.
and now looking at only C and D grade
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22-08-2017, 07:15 PM
#2580
Investor
Originally Posted by bung5
Good effort getting 100k invested in such a short time. I have only managed to get 15k in 3 months. I'm 80% going for 36 month loans however.
and now looking at only C and D grade
Going for only 36 month loans makes it a lot slower.
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