-
08-09-2017, 10:06 AM
#2671
Member
Good to have this type of discussion for us newish investors
I've just run some stats on default. And looking at the posted stats on this board, I am genuinely surprised the Interest / Charge Off Stat are so Good!
Running comparatives off Lending Club, shows
|
|
delinq/iss* |
chg/iss |
|
chg/int |
lending club |
2017 Q1 & Q2 |
1.3% |
0.1% |
|
3% |
lending club |
2016 Q3 & Q4 |
4.8% |
2.1% |
|
23% |
lending club |
2016 Q1 & Q2 |
7.7% |
5.5% |
|
44% |
lending club |
2015 Q3 & Q4 |
9.3% |
7.6% |
|
50% |
lending club |
2015 Q1 & Q2 |
10.3% |
9.3% |
|
52% |
lending club |
2014 Q3 & Q4 |
10.2% |
9.7% |
|
48% |
lending club |
2014 Q1 & Q2 |
9.9% |
9.6% |
|
43% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
lending club |
Q3 2015 to Q2 2017 |
6.0% |
4.1% |
|
39% |
harmony |
All |
6.5% |
2.8% |
|
21% |
* Delinq = in arrears + charge off*
** HM “late” definition slightly wider, LC removes 1-15 day
Harmoney is roughly tracking Lending Club on delinquency, so Charge/Issue should project to 10%.
A couple of observations.
- Harmoney’s Late / Charge off is HUGE. Is sitting at 132% compared LC 46% (Q3 2015+)
- Delaying moving arrears to charge off artificially inflates platform RAR. By approx 2% if 50% delayed
- There is a MASSIVE difference between retail and wholesale, 2.5%. If mix on grading is equal, wholesale defaults calculate out as 3 times greater then retail!
|
RAR |
prop % |
charge |
i nt |
issue |
days |
|
chg/iss |
Overall |
11.5% |
|
15542 |
72,795 |
558,230 |
325 |
|
2.78% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Retail |
13.2% |
30% |
2100 |
21,839 |
167,469 |
|
|
1.25% |
Wholesale |
10.8% |
70% |
13442 |
50,957 |
390,761 |
|
|
3.44% |
Last edited by leesal; 08-09-2017 at 10:08 AM.
-
08-09-2017, 10:17 AM
#2672
Member
Originally Posted by BJ1
My average loan is $671. I've had two writeoffs, the largest being $382 on a $500 loan taken as one of the first four invested back in Feb2015. I hate taking hits which is why my spread is the way it is. I'm not after top % but an average I can live with. I ignore RAR and look only to current return and my projection - which sadly is now falling with the new rates in place. Given that the opportunities for these returns are very limited, Harmoney will continue to represent a solid percentage of my portfolio - for the next couple of years it should outperform most other options, so accepting that defaults will occur is just part of the business.
Charge off 3% of Interest after 2 & half years invested is fantastic!
-
08-09-2017, 11:35 AM
#2673
Member
Originally Posted by myles
Cool Bear, Darchie, Alistar - are you willing to share the % of: number of default loans / number of total loans and the time frame ?
Clearly this should vary based on loan grade and many other factors, but it would be a useful value to compare against what Harmoney provide.
heres some info for you
Attachment 9150
-
08-09-2017, 11:39 AM
#2674
yeah, nah
Originally Posted by leesal
Charge off 3% of Interest after 2 & half years invested is fantastic!
Agree! Only having two in that timeframe is impressive. I've just taken my first two in only 6 months of investing
-
08-09-2017, 11:41 AM
#2675
yeah, nah
Originally Posted by alistar_mid
heres some info for you
Thanks Alistar - you really are starting to take a bit of a pounding, but your returns are still looking good - par for the course I guess.
-
08-09-2017, 11:49 AM
#2676
Member
Originally Posted by myles
Thanks Alistar - you really are starting to take a bit of a pounding, but your returns are still looking good - par for the course I guess.
yeah my a$$ is pretty sore right now - the last 2 days had another $500 of write offs come in.
post tax IRR based on money in and money out is now < 10%
Last edited by alistar_mid; 08-09-2017 at 12:00 PM.
-
08-09-2017, 04:11 PM
#2677
Member
Originally Posted by BJ1
My average loan is $671. I've had two writeoffs, the largest being $382 on a $500 loan taken as one of the first four invested back in Feb2015. I hate taking hits which is why my spread is the way it is. I'm not after top % but an average I can live with. I ignore RAR and look only to current return and my projection - which sadly is now falling with the new rates in place. Given that the opportunities for these returns are very limited, Harmoney will continue to represent a solid percentage of my portfolio - for the next couple of years it should outperform most other options, so accepting that defaults will occur is just part of the business.
Very respectable figures BJ1 and a very low charge back sum compared to others. Well done!
-
08-09-2017, 04:43 PM
#2678
Member
Originally Posted by alistar_mid
yeah my a$$ is pretty sore right now - the last 2 days had another $500 of write offs come in.
post tax IRR based on money in and money out is now < 10%
You must be doing some very heavy hitting Alistar. In three weeks (18 Apr - 11 May) both your total invested and principle outstanding increased by around $30,000 but the total number of loans only increased by 14. That's around $2000 per loan and presents a real opportunity for big charge-offs.
Apr-May 17.jpg
Last edited by joker; 08-09-2017 at 04:48 PM.
Reason: Changed principle invested to principle outstanding
-
08-09-2017, 06:23 PM
#2679
Member
I see some people taking large numbers of notes per loan, surely the risk becomes massive especially with E,F grades.
Have only taken 101 E,F grades since March 2015 and stopped investing late last year. There are now only 26 active loans, have had 15/101 defaults in E and F being a 14.85% default rate.
Yet have taken 1259 A_D grade loans over the last 30 months and have 8/1259 defaults being 0.635%
My RAR has climbed to 14.55% being 3.05% above the platform RAR to date. I now only lend in 12 sub-grades.
I also take into account Payment Protect fees less Lender/ Borrower rebates in my $value charged off v Gross interest ratio. Which reduces this figure from 12.74% to a 6.48% Gross interest loss.
Ideally over time I would like the net Payment Protect figure to cancel out the Charge off $ value.
permutation risk spread update.JPG
Last edited by permutation; 09-09-2017 at 01:35 PM.
Reason: refreshed table
-
08-09-2017, 11:45 PM
#2680
Member
Originally Posted by joker
You must be doing some very heavy hitting Alistar. In three weeks (18 Apr - 11 May) both your total invested and principle outstanding increased by around $30,000 but the total number of loans only increased by 14. That's around $2000 per loan and presents a real opportunity for big charge-offs.
Apr-May 17.jpg
Nah average loan value is $93.
Theres a lag from when you place them to when they show up in reporting (the csv download)
|
10-Mar-17 |
24-Mar-17 |
18-Apr-17 |
11-May-17 |
31-May-17 |
09-Jun-17 |
07-Jul-17 |
Total Invested |
$ 69,173 |
$ 70,122 |
$ 73,014 |
$ 104,364 |
$ 117,166 |
$ 116,918 |
$ 116,466 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Principle Outsanding |
$ 61,815 |
$ 61,200 |
$ 62,072 |
$ 90,073 |
$ 99,911 |
$ 98,085 |
$ 92,094 |
Principle Paid up |
$ 7,359 |
$ 8,922 |
$ 10,942 |
$ 14,292 |
$ 17,255 |
$ 18,833 |
$ 24,372 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Principle Outsanding "Live" |
$ 51,272 |
$ 57,745 |
$ 57,882 |
$ 58,688 |
$ 73,239 |
$ 84,112 |
$ 91,068 |
The principle "live" is reflective of the number of loans showing up
Tags for this Thread
Posting Permissions
- You may not post new threads
- You may not post replies
- You may not post attachments
- You may not edit your posts
-
Forum Rules
|
|
Bookmarks